ATIKU NOT CONCERNED BY IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002465 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2016 TAGS: KDEM NI PGOV PHUM PINR ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ATIKU NOT CONCERNED BY IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Vice President Atiku Abubakar met with the Ambassador and PolCouns on September 19. He was relaxed, confident, and betrayed no particular anxiety about the impeachment proceedings which have been brought against him. While he studiously avoided comment on the veracity of the charges, he expressed certainty that the National Assembly would not permit an impeachment vote. He stressed that the struggle with the President was now a legal one, and that he expected an extended court battle. He claimed that this would work in his favor since he would still be allowed to run for the presidency while the court was rendering its judgment. He also hinted that he would continue his battle with the president in the political arena, saying he had revealed "less than one-tenth of what I have on the President." ¶2. (C) The relationship between the President and the Vice President is further strained because Atiku has had travel restrictions placed on him by the President. While he can generally obtain permission to leave the country, in Nigeria he is only allowed to travel to Yola and Lagos. People are free to come to Abuja to visit him, however. Atiku claims that in spite of the obvious strains in his relationship with the President, they continue to interact on a professional level. ¶3. (C) The Vice President continues to plan his presidential campaign. He said he was in contact with former military head of state Babangida, and he expected to receive a delegation from former head of state Buhari later in the evening. Both Atiku and his aides express great confidence that they will be allowed to run in the elections and that they will win if elections are held. Atiku claims that he is "the only person Nigerians look to for defending democracy." ¶4. (C) COMMENT. Atiku spent several minutes reminiscing about the late Shehu Yar'Adua. Yar'Adua was Obasanjo's number two during his stint as military leader and was the founder of the political machine that Atiku inherited on Yar'Adua's death in prison during the Abacha years. Atiku clearly wants to be seen in the same light as his (still) extremely popular mentor. For now, Atiku remains calm and resolute, viewing the impeachment proceedings against him as simply another phase of the same political game with Obasanjo. He believes that the President would like to disqualify him from running for office, but he does not think the President will be able to succeed. Given that, it is unlikely that Atiku will fade quietly from the system and will continue his efforts even if that means releasing more information about corruption involving both himself and the President. CAMPBELL