SENATE CAUTIOUSLY CONSIDERS IMPEACHMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002415 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2106 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: SENATE CAUTIOUSLY CONSIDERS IMPEACHMENT REF: ABUJA 2349 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Senate on September 12 reacted cautiously to President Obasanjo's efforts to impeach his political nemesis, Vice President Atiku Abubakar, by referring the matter to committee for study. The move reflects an effort to buy time in the Senate, where there is little enthusiasm to get caught in the middle of the on-going political struggle between the President and Vice President. The cautious move also reflects a lack of willingness by politicians to get out front for either man, because of the perception that they both are facing a credibility gap on issues of corruption. -------------- WHEN TWO ELEPHANTS FIGHT, TAKE COVER -------------- ¶2. (U) The mood in the National Assembly was decidedly cautious several days after the release of the findings of the President's panel into allegations of corruption by the Vice-President. The Senate decided to refer the issue to the Judiciary Committee for a recommendation on procedure rather than the substance, after closed meeting in executive session. The executive session was reportedly rowdy, with some members wanting to open debate immediately and others preferring to shunt the issue to various committees. Several members complained privately about the executive session where, according to the grouses, opposition parties were not allowed to speak. The Judiciary committee is supposed to report its findings within two weeks. The House is likely to begin consideration of the issue on September 13, although Embassy contacts in the lower chamber, including Pro-Obasanjo members, expressed similar ambivalence about their role and willingness to be out in front on the issue. ¶3. (U) According to rules of the Assembly and the Nigerian constitution support of one-quarter of the members in each chamber is needed to initiate debate on impeachment proceedings, and support of two-thirds of members of both chambers of the National Assembly are needed to impeach the Vice-President. The most likely scenarios under discussion are an immediate vote in the National Assembly, delaying action by sending it to committee, and sending the matter to the Chief Justice and a panel of seven imminent persons who will report back their findings to the Assembly, which will then vote. ¶4. (C) A prominent pro-Obasanjo member of the House from Edo State said that his side had gathered enough signatures to begin discussion, but it is unclear if the House leadership will allow that to happen given the political context. He said that the President was clearly taking the impeachment issue seriously, but that members were likely to wait to tip their hands. "We members of the National Assembly are guided and controlled by our various political godfathers. Although none of them so far has called us to push for the impeachment of the Vice-President, we expect to be hearing from them when the process starts," the long-time contact told Poloff. -------------- HAS ATIKU STEPPED INTO A TRAP -------------- ¶5. (U) Members of the National Assembly who spoke with Poloff expressed different interpretations of the legal ramifications of whether the government administrative panel's report alleging corruption was already sufficient to disqualify the Vice-President from running for office as President Obasanjo's supporters are claiming, according to their interpretation of section 137 of the constitution. ¶6. (C) One anti-Obasanjo term House member from Lagos State told Poloff that he believes that the Vice-President has fallen into a trap by pursing the issue first in court, because it could sit on the matter, or rule against him, thus validating his disqualification. He believes Atiku's best chance for political survival was to fight the battle in the National Assembly where members are clearly divided, understand the issue in its wider political context and where the VP would find a platform to make counter charges of corruption. "Atiku has adopted a wrong strategy by going to court instead of coming to the National Assembly. The Nigerian judiciary is not truly independent and therefore can be unpredictable. Once a court upholds the position of the president then that will be the end of Atiku." ¶7. (C) Many members expressed ambivalence about being drawn into to a battle that they do not see as their own, and which could distract from the current transition. There are moves underway by the Vice-President's supporters to prepare ABUJA 00002415 002 OF 002 impeachable counter charges against the President (reftel). More than one member joked that a process that led to the impeachment of both the President and Vice-President would not be such a bad thing, because it would reveal the inner workings of their government and, if successful, would leave the Senate President and the Speaker of the House in charge of the government and therefore responsible for organizing elections. "I have gone through the EFCC report and having read it, I have serious concerns about the report. I don't think I am the only one who thinks that it is possible that the impeachment saga may not end the way the President desires, said a Senator from the Northwest." -------------- ATIKU HOLDS HIS COURSE -------------- ¶8. (C) For his part, the Vice President continues to present more evidence that the allegations against him are merely a small part of a bigger issue. He has maintained for months that the accusations are based on bank accounts that he and the President set up to funnel money into the PDP's re-election campaign in 2003. Atiku claims that the release of the full records of the bank accounts would show that both he and Obasanjo disbursed money to various people during the elections. Further, a staff in the Presidency told PolCouns that at least three members of the President's staff were interviewed during the investigation, none of whom appear in the released version of the EFCC investigation. The staffer said that the three were "directly involved" with the President and his 2003 campaign. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The lessons of the third term debate have left many members of the National Assembly cautious about jumping into the next great battle. Most would prefer to get on with the political season and are disappointed that killing Obasanjo's third-term efforts did not deter him from further machinations. Despite the President's seriousness about impeachment or disqualification and the Vice-President's desperation for political survival, there are few signs that members, no matter what their third term stances were, are equally motivated to rush into action. CAMPBELL