SCENESETTER FOR RADM GREENE'S AUGUST 2006 VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 002226 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUCOM PLEASE PASS TO NAVEUR E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV ECON MASS KDEM PREL NI SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR RADM GREENE'S AUGUST 2006 VISIT TO NIGERIA Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Necia Quast for Reasons 1 .4 (b and d) ¶1. (U) Your visit to Nigeria comes at a critical time in the country's political evolution. Increasing instability in the lower Niger River Delta threatens the nation's oil production, the government's primary source of income; continuing outbreaks of avian influenza threaten the nation's poultry industry, the source of livelihood for thousands of Nigerians and the primary source of protein for millions more; a recent wave of sectarian violence demonstrates how quickly religious, ethnic, and political sentiments can become inflamed; and Nigeria is lurching, violently, towards a presidential election. Next year President Olusegun Obasanjo comes to the end of his second (and, under the current constitution, his last) term. The 2007 polls will be the third set of presidential elections since the end of military rule in 1999, and may mark the first transition in Nigeria's history from one elected regime to another. THE POLITICS OF THE MOMENT -------------- ¶2. (U) For the first half of this year, Nigeria's political establishment was obsessed with the question of whether or not President Obasanjo would seek a third term in office. Supporters of a constitutional amendment bill that, among other changes, would have enabled Obasanjo to seek a third term, were accused of using bribery and intimidation to garner support for the bill in the National Assembly. Anti-third term protests occurred in many states, and major political figures, including Vice President Atiku Abubakar, national legislators, state governors, especially those from the north, made public statements against the third term. On May 16, the House and Senate simultaneously killed the constitutional amendment bill. In what appeared to be a pre-determined outcome, following several hours of debate, the bill was defeated after proponents of the third term were unable to garner the simple majority in the House or the Senate needed to continue action on the bill. Intrigue on this matter continues, with few Nigerians willing to accept Obasanjo's desire to leave office. The most recent rumors include the possible resurrection of the constitutional amendment before the end of the year; the appointment of an �00A;Interim National Government, led by Obasanjo, at the end of his current term; or a national or electoral crisis that makes the holding of elections impossible. ¶3. (U) Nigerians, to some extent, have now shifted their focus to preparations for the 2007 election. There are no clear leading candidates. Vice President Atiku has made no secret of his aspirations to the office, but he has not SIPDIS received President Obasanjo's backing. Rather, he has had several public altercations with the President which generated significant media attention. One of the President's spokesmen went so far as to advise the Vice President to resign. Along with Atiku, ex-military rulers Buhari and Babangida and former Lagos military governor Marwa are considered to be the principal contenders. Abia State Governor Orji Kalu has declared his candidacy and claimed support from the other candidates, but is less well-known than his rivals. Several other candidates and many new parties are now emerging, but none are of any great stature. With the opening of political campaigns has come a marked increase in Nigeria's political temperature. Several politically-motivated assassinations have occurred recently, and the Nigerian police have appeared either unable to unwilling to deter future attacks. ¶4. (U) Nigeria's Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) is responsible for voter registration and the conduct of the 2007 poll. The National Democratic Institute (NDI) delivered a "wake-up call" about election administrations deficiencies in a report issued at the conclusion of its international pre-election assessment mission completed on May 10. The report highlighted progress in some categories, but noted that critical work must be done immediately in order to ensure credible elections in 2007. Chief among NDI's recommendations were for INEC to issue an election calendar complete with deadlines for registration, nominations, etc., and to begin voter's registration and a public education ABUJA 00002226 002 OF 004 campaign on the new voter's registration process and cards. The NDI assessment team also highlighted the need for the National Assembly to quickly pass the Electoral Act, which has now been passed into law, in order to clarify the rules of the game for the 2007 polls. While both INEC and the GON both publicly highlight the progress they are making in their electoral preparations, we remain deeply concerned that not enough progress has been made to ensure not just that credible elections occur, but that elections occur at all. UNREST IN THE NIGER DELTA -------------- ¶5. (C) In the last two weeks, at least 17 foreigners (including one American) have been taken hostage by militant groups in the Niger Delta. As of August 24, all the hostages except one (a Lebanese national) have been released unharmed. In January and again in February 2006, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) kidnapped thirteen expatriates, including four American citizens, and held them in jungle areas of Bayelsa and Delta States. The terms of the hostages' release remain unclear. The GON has established a commission to look into Delta regional development, but Ijaw leaders and militants are divided regarding participation in the GON's efforts. The region remains poor, although it supplies the majority of the nation's wealth. This juxtaposition has created a climate of deep despair and anger, which has given rise to the current political crisis in the region. Little development has taken place in the region since oil was discovered there forty years ago. The emergence of MEND, which has also blown up oil installations, is a new and worrying trend in the region, although the underlying frustrations are endemic to the Niger Delta. MEND continues to issue threats against oil installations and expatriates via major media outlets. If pushed, the militants have said they would no longer take hostages, but rather kill anyone they found working in defiance of their "restrictions." An American citizen oil executive was killed in Port Harcourt on May 10 in an apparently unrelated attack, but this new style of dealing with expatriates in the region raises the stakes significantly for all parties involved. Many local communities, inspired by the example of MEND, have now also adopted hostage-taking as a means to get attention (or ransom monies) for their grievances and hostage crises are becoming a routine occurrence throughout the Delta. This has led to significant travel and security restrictions being imposed by both Shell and by diplomatic missions for the Delta, particularly for Port Harcourt. ¶6. (C) Any major military action could threaten the safety of current and future hostages, or promote more hostage-taking. While the GON has so far been able to restrain the military from rash action, the Chief of Defense Intelligence recently said that the military should have a greater role in resolving hostage situations. President Obasanjo, frustrated by the latest round of hostage taking, called for the military to respond using "force for force" and, citing international instruments to which Nigeria is a signatory characterized hostage-takers as "terrorists" (Note: Nigeria is not party to the UN's convention on hostage taking, one of the 12 UN counter-terror conventions, but is party to the OAU's 1999 Convention of the Combating and Prevention of Terrorism, which could be interpreted to cover Delta-style hostage-taking. End note). THE MILITARY'S CONCERNS -------------- ¶7. (C) While the Nigerian military has been better funded, more professional and clearly subordinate to civilian rule since Obasanjo came to power, it is still undermanned, under-equipped, and under-trained for its myriad international peacekeeping and internal security assignments. The high operational tempo required to maintain its many deployments within and without Nigeria gives little rest to the weary. It is unclear how long the current pace can be maintained. Although there is no sign of breakdown at the moment, the Chief of Defense Staff, while in his previous assignment as Army Chief, recently commented that the army ABUJA 00002226 003 OF 004 would be hard-pressed to come up with additional troops for Darfur and maintain its domestic security missions (Note: Nigeria just withdrew approximately 3500 troops from the disputed Bakassi peninsula, in accordance with the Greentree Agreement. End note). ¶8. (U) Despite Nigeria's position as the anchor of U.S.-supported peacekeeping operations in the region, Congressionally-imposed sanctions for the October 2001 Benue massacre (lifted in 2004) and the protracted presence of Charles Taylor reduced a security assistance program that had been the second largest in sub-Saharan Africa. While Charles Taylor was recently sent to face justice in Sierra Leone, and Nigeria also claims partial credit for brokering the recent African Union (AU) led agreement reached in the Darfur peace talks, assistance programs have not yet been fully resuscitated. Nevertheless, a significant number of military-military activities continue. A seminar with the Nigerian Air Force to develop a strategic vision, a robust DOD HIV/AIDS program and an active humanitarian assistance program are in operation. In addition, several important new programs are underway, one of which links up the Nigerian military with the California National Guard as part of the State Partnership Program. Of special note in view of Nigeria's major peacekeeping commitments, training under the Africa Contingency Operations Training Assistance Program (ACOTA),began in April. ¶9. (U) The senior Nigerian military leadership seems to see participation in peacekeeping missions, especially UN operations, as a means of restoring both soldiers' pride and public confidence in the military. Nigeria has two battalions of UN peacekeepers in Liberia and three battalions in the African Union Mission in the Darfur region of Sudan. President Obasanjo has mentioned the possibility of committing troops to missions in Somalia, Cote d'Ivoire, and DROC, but he has not stated where these soldiers would come from. ¶10. (C) Another new initiative is beginning to take shape. Thanks in part to the impetus given to the process by NAVEUR's March visit, the US-UK-Nigeria talks on Gulf of Guinea security are moving forward. At the most recent session in Washington 28 April, the USG offered to work with the GON to develop a "train and equip" program aimed at building a riverine capability for operations in the Delta. A joint US-UK-Nigeria assessment team visit, originally planned for June but now scheduled for September, will develop a detailed proposal that can be presented to the GON. In addition, in Washington, the GON agreed to receive a briefing team that will make a presentation of the Regional Maritime Awareness Capability (RMAC) program and explore GON's receptiveness to hosting an RMAC system. The initial concept visit occurred in July, with follow-up technical and site surveys scheduled for mid-September. SECURITY ISSUES -------------- ¶11. (U) While most Nigerians, including Muslims, are basically pro-American and look to the U.S. as a model in many fields, significant segments of the population oppose specific USG policies. In northern Nigeria, Palestine has long been a rallying point for opposition to USG policies, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have served to rekindle this opposition. Many Northern Nigerians think the U.S. misunderstands Sharia law. The recent conflict between Israel and Lebanon has inflamed, to an extent, both the local Lebanese community and Nigeria's Muslim population, but no specific threats against U.S. interests have been received. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ISSUES -------------- ¶12. (U) Nigeria's economic reform process appears to be losing momentum in the run up to elections, especially with the dismissal of Ngozi from the economic team. The major immediate concern is increasing inflation, running now at about 18%. One area we will be watching closely is the management of Nigeria's windfall revenues from high oil prices. Getting a credit rating for Nigeria's sovereign debt ABUJA 00002226 004 OF 004 was a feather in the previous Finance Minister's cap. At the ground level, economic dissatisfaction continues. Nigeria's citizens fear rising fuel prices and food prices. The business community sees little improvement in arbitrary policies and deteriorating infrastructure. Trade and investment issues are among the most contentious in the bilateral agenda. Nigeria has begun to implement the long awaited ECOWAS Common Economic Tariff, but its impact is mixed. While celebrating the good news that Nigeria actually showed some improvement in Transparency International's most recent Corruption Perception Index, Nigerians express continued and even growing frustration about corruption, viewed here as at a historically high level. Support for the government's anti-corruption efforts are undermined by the broad perception that investigations are politically motivated. ¶13. (U) On the most recent UNDP Human Development Index, Nigeria's score dropped due to falling life expectancy. More than seventy percent of Nigerians live in poverty, secondary school attendance and literacy are declining, and life expectancy is now only 43.4 years, driven mainly by high infant mortality. Due to the conflict over the safety of the U.N.-sponsored vaccination programs, efforts to rid Nigeria and the world of polio were unsuccessful by the U.N.-declared deadline at the end of 2005. HIV/AIDS is another factor in life expectancy and, of course, a huge component of our assistance in Nigeria. The Avian Influenza outbreak is predicted to have a severe impact on broad swath of the public. Commercial poultry production is a major industry and large employer. An even greater number of subsistence farmers rely on small backyard flocks to supplement their diet and cash income. Aside from the danger of an influenza epidemic, the outbreak is almost certain to impact the food supplies of a population living on the nutritional edge. CAMPBELL