KINGIBE ON NIGERIAN ELECTIONS, DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002150

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SU NI
SUBJECT: KINGIBE ON NIGERIAN ELECTIONS, DARFUR


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador and Acting Political Counselor
met with Babagana Kingibe August 16. Much of the
conversation focused on domestic politics, including the 2007
presidential election. Many political commentators mention
Kingibe's name as a "dark horse" 2007 presidential contender,
and he admits that he is returning to Nigeria in September to
"re-engage" politically after spending several years in
Khartoum as an African Union envoy. Kingibe also spoke
briefly about his "surprise" at the lack of interest in the
Darfur crisis amongst Nigerians, given the number of
peacekeepers Nigeria has contributed and President Obasanjo's
personal leadership in the negotiations of the Peace
Agreement. End Summary.


2. (U) Babagana Kingibe was elected Vice President in 1993
in what was widely regarded as Nigeria's freest and fairest
election, though it was later annulled by the military and he
and President-elect Abiola never took office. During the
Abacha regime, Kingibe went on to serve in various cabinet
positions, including as Foreign Minister. For the past few
years he has been outside the country working in conflict
resolution, first as a facilitator of the Inter-Congolese
dialogue and currently as the African Union's Special
Representative in Sudan. He is also a board member of the
Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Kingibe is 61
years old and hails from Maiduguri in Nigeria's far northeast.

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A "Reluctant" Candidate?
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3. (C) Kingibe started the conversation by admitting that
"the rumors are true;" he has been approached by people in
various quarters and asked to run for President in 2007.
However, he claimed that he has not made up his mind whether
to run and said coyly that he is "not even really thinking
about it." Kingibe explained that he has been outside of
Nigeria for so long that he is almost embarrassed to presume
he could simply come home and assume the nation's highest
office. He explained that he will be leaving his position as
AU Special Representative in mid-September in order to return
to Nigeria and "re-engage" here politically. At present, he
says he has no party affiliation, but he would probably join
the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) because "it is the
only party that has a presence in every village." Kingibe
was very careful to avoid saying he wanted to be President,
but he also made it clear that he is not interested in
standing for any other office.


4. (C) When the conversation turned to the current crop of
presidential contenders, Kingibe lamented the fact that none
of them seemed to have any policy agenda. He did however
single out Jerry Gana (PDP) as the only candidate who "has a
real program." (Note: Gana, a Middle-Belt Christian, and
Kingibe, a Northern Muslim, served together in the Abacha
government and are reportedly friends.)


5. (C) At the end of the conversation, Kingibe returned
(unprompted) to the topic of his potential presidential bid.
He said that he has been approached by both Wole Soyinka and
Dawn Abiola and that both figures have told him that "they
would not oppose" his candidacy in 2007. Presumably, Kingibe
wanted to signal to us that neither the legacy of June 12,
1993 nor his service in the Abacha regime have been held
against him by the Abiola family or leading social critics
like Soyinka.

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Nigeria's Indifference to Sudan
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6. (C) Kingibe said he will leave his post as the African
Union's Special Representative in Sudan by mid-September. He
wanted to leave in August, but claimed that AU Chairman
Konare asked him to stay in Khartoum until a suitable
replacement can be found. He has agreed to stay "one more
month only" (i.e. until mid September). During his time in
Khartoum, Kingibe said he has been surprised at "Nigeria's
lack of attention to Darfur." Nigeria has provided the most
peacekeeping troops (3 large battalions),the AMIS force
commander, and himself as the AU Special Representative, yet
events in Sudan are simply not on the radar screen in
Nigeria. Kingibe noted that the Nigerian media has
"virtually ignored Darfur" and even the National Assembly and
others in the political class pay little attention to the
Sudan crisis. President Obasanjo has only visited Sudan
once, several years ago, according to Kingibe, and that visit

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was "by the way," a mere whistle stop on another trip. Per
Kingibe, Obasanjo did not stay long and he made no effort to
meet with Nigerian troops. By contrast, Kingibe said that
Presidents Kagame and Wade have been much more engaged and
have made a point of traveling to visit their peacekeeping
troops. Kingibe was not critical of Obasanjo for Nigeria's
perceived lack of interest in Darfur. Instead, he blamed the
inattention on what he termed Nigeria's "insularity" and on
the incompetence of the Foreign Ministry. He complained that
despite President Obasanjo's personal engagement in hosting
the Darfur peace talks, there is no central point person in
the Nigerian government that one can call to discuss urgent
Sudan issues. He lamented the lack of a Darfur desk or a
task force within the Foreign Ministry that could be called
upon when urgent issues arise.

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Comment
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7. (C) Kingibe's perception that the Nigerian government is
often disengaged on Darfur issues mirrors the Embassy's
experience. It is often difficult to find an interlocutor at
Foreign Affairs or the Presidency for our demarches.
President Obasanjo is in many ways not only his own Oil
Minister, but his own Foreign Minister and even his own Sudan
desk officer, and he is too preoccupied to see us except on
the most urgent of demarches, in which case he expects he
will already have been called by Washington. Kingibe's
resignation may be just one sign of what we fear may be a
trend: that Nigerian attention to Darfur issues, even at the
highest levels, will only decrease in coming months as the
2007 elections approach.

CAMPBELL