2007: DISPUTED ELECTION RESULTS MAY BE A QUAGMIRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001653

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL NI
SUBJECT: 2007: DISPUTED ELECTION RESULTS MAY BE A QUAGMIRE


Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b
and d)


1. (U) SUMMARY: Beyond simply holding elections in 2007,
Nigeria has to work hard to make sure any disputes over
election results are effectively resolved. IFES, an
international democracy building NGO, conducted a series of 3
seminars in Abuja focusing on electoral dispute resolution
machinery. The April 26 meeting covered Enforcing Electoral
Judgments, the May 23 meeting discussed Security and
Electoral Litigation, and the meeting June 22 discussed
Bribery, Corruption, and the Electoral Appeals Process. A
broad spectrum of government and civil society leaders
participated. The conference series drew attention to the
need for deep structural reforms and a reinforced political
will to ensure election results in 2007 viewed as legitimate
by Nigerians. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The April 26 meeting on Enforcing Electoral Judgments
pointed out a potential problem in Nigerian law. Election
tribunals have been set up to hear disputes in
non-presidential elections (presidential disputes are heard
by the Court of Appeal under the 2006 Electoral Act),but
they are not legal courts of record with the power to enforce
decisions. The recently passed 2006 Electoral Act does not
appear to give the tribunals any new powers, and it is
unclear how the Court of Appeal would enforce any judgment
about a contested presidential election result.
Additionally, even hearing the cases could be difficult. In
2003, little physical security existed for tribunals hearing
electoral disputes and this physical insecurity sometimes
prevented them from doing their work. A representative for
the federal attorney general laid this at the feet of "area
boys" and "miscreants," and a legal practitioner involved in
challenging the 2003 election results said that witnesses
were attacked and lawyers working in the electoral tribunals
disguised themselves to ward off attacks. Physical
insecurity may also leave election workers more open to
corruption, the topic of the conference on June 22. During
that conference, nobody in the room disputed the notion that
corruption is a striking problem in resolving electoral
disputes. In the recent controversy over a possible third
term for President Obasanjo, countless witnesses described
money changing hands in order to influence the political
process in Nigeria. Even if the corruption is overstated,
public perception of its truth will make it difficult to
accept any judgments rendered by the electoral tribunals.


3. (C) Media reports indicate other issues that may make it
difficult to implement the results of the 2007 elections.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) pointed
out various problems, including the fact that electoral
challenges will have no time limit. INEC also disputes which
government agency should investigate any cases of electoral
fraud and how electoral funds should be distributed. Further
complicating matters, INEC stands accused by some of not
being a fair judge of electoral results. Anambra State
Governor Peter Obi was quoted as saying that electoral
problems are the fault of INEC "because of the fraudulent
acts committed in their offices after elections like it did
in 2003." Other media reports have speculated that President
Obasanjo is changing the composition of INEC in order to
place officers friendly to him in positions of power. While
post can not yet evaluate whether these claims are true, they
indicate a lack of trust among the citizens of Nigeria in the
political process.


4. (C) COMMENT. Assuming the 2007 elections take place as
scheduled, Nigeria faces a enormous obstacles to producing
results recognized throughout the country. The very fact
that civil society feels it necessary to discuss topics
related to enforcing electoral judgments rendered by
competent authorities reflects a lack of confidence by the
polity. As the coordinator of an NGO involved in disputing
the 2003 election results told PolOff, there is a cultural
belief that electoral losers have not lost a fair fight. The
elections in 2007 are likely to bring this issue into even
sharper focus because in 2003 Obasanjo ran as an incumbent.
The situation in 2007 will be much more fluid. This "no fair
fight" belief causes electoral losers to almost reflexively
challenge the results, and the institutions are not
sufficient to handle the claims which arise. Simply having
elections in 2007 may not be enough. Even in the best case
scenario where elections happen with actors of good will, the
legal mechanism set up to implement the results by resolving
disputes has no power. If the elections are not accepted as
legitimate, the instability witnessed in Nigeria over the
past four years is likely to continue. END COMMENT.
FUREY