ELECTORAL BILL PASSED, ELECTION DATES ANNOUNCED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001370 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ELECTORAL BILL PASSED, ELECTION DATES ANNOUNCED REF: ABUJA 1243 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) Summary: The National Assembly passed the Electoral Act (2006) on May 31, finally clarifying the rules of the game for Nigeria's 2007 general election. The long-awaited law sets new limits on campaign finance, regulates registration of parties and nomination of candidates, and determines the manner of voting. The Electoral Act allows Nigeria's Independent National Election Commission (INEC) to determine the date for elections within the parameters set by Nigeria's constitution. INEC announced last week that the general elections will be held between April 7 and April 28, ¶2007. End Summary. -------------- Rules of the Game Finally Announced -------------- ¶2. (U) After the defeat May 16 of the controversial third term constitutional amendment, the National Assembly turned its attention to other pressing business, including consideration of the Electoral Bill. The slate of modifications to the election rules had been pending before the Assembly since 2004 and public hearings on the draft bill were held in 2005. Implementing partners and civil society contacts told political officers last year that the draft bill was an improvement over the 2002 Electoral Act, though most indicated that political will to enforce the rules (whether modified or not) would be key. There were slight differences between House and Senate versions of the bill, which were resolved by the conference committee in late May. The final, "harmonized" version of the bill was passed by both chambers on May 31 and passed to President Obasanjo for his assent. He is expected to sign off on the new law soon. The 2006 Act bans electronic voting, which had been favored by INEC. It sets new limits on campaign finance and changes the deadlines for registration of parties and nomination of candidates. -------------- Campaign Spending -------------- ¶3. (U) Under the 2006 Act, each presidential campaign may only spend 500 million naira, while aspiring governors may spend N100 million. Senatorial campaigns are limited to N20 million, and House races to N10 million. The maximum allowable donation to any candidate from any single person or entity is N1 million. Penalties for exceeding campaign finance limits include fines of up to N1 million and imprisonment of up to one year. Six months after an election, all parties and candidates must submit audited reports of their expenditures to INEC. -------------- Parties and Candidates -------------- ¶4. (U) Under the new rules, all political parties that wish to contest an election must be registered with INEC at least six months prior to the election date (i.e. by October 2006 for the April 2007 general elections). Any mergers of parties must also be completed six months before the election. Parties must submit their list of candidates to INEC at least 120 days before a general election. Any changes in the party,s slate of candidates must be made in writing to INEC at least 60 days before the vote. (Previously, such changes could be made only 30 days prior to the poll.) INEC must publish the list of candidates 30 days in advance of election. -------------- Manner of Voting -------------- ¶5. (U) The 2006 Electoral Act expressly prohibits the controversial e-voting, which INEC had been pushing for. The law states that "the use of Electronic Voting Machine for the time being is prohibited." Some senators disagreed with the inclusion of the phrase "for the time being," arguing that it was too vague. However, their opposition to the phrase was not strong enough to derail the bill. Rather than electronic voting, the "open-secret" ballot system was adopted. Under this system, voters are given paper ballots which they mark in the open, rather than inside a booth or behind a curtain, and they then drop the completed ballot publicly into the urn. This modification on the more common "secret ballot" method is supposed to help prevent fraud, such as ballot stuffing. The new law also specifies that vote tallies will be announced at each polling station before the count is aggregated at the regional and national level. Party agents will be allowed to observe at the polling station and ABUJA 00001370 002 OF 002 regional/national centers to verify that the vote count is not tampered with as it is transmitted up the line. -------------- INEC Press Conference -------------- ¶6. (U) At a May 29 press conference, INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu announced that the 2007 general elections will be held April 7 - 28, 2007. Elections for President, National Assembly, and Governors and state Houses of Assembly will be held over three consecutive weekends within that timeframe, though the exact sequence of the elections is not yet fixed. According to the Electoral Act, INEC must confirm the election timetable at least 150 days before the general election (by approximately November 2006). Iwu also said that there will be 120,000 polling places which will be mapped out in advance using the Geographic Information System (GIS) to prevent last minute changes to poll locations. He also revealed that 37 political parties have been registered as of May 2006. Iwu stated that international observers would be welcome in 2007, provided that they abide by Nigeria's laws and do not interfere with the election process. ¶7. (C) Though currently illegal, the concept of electronic voting is still not dead. Iwu said that the bill for the pilot use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) had been passed in 2005 and that contracts had already been awarded for the purchase of software and equipment. (Note: We have heard that as much as $100 million has already been spent by INEC on the EVM project.) Therefore, INEC continues with plans to conduct a pilot run of e-voting this cycle. ¶8. (C) Press reports claim that many State electoral commissioners have been removed already and speculate on further shake-ups at INEC to come soon. One of the issues is the management style of INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu, who is said by his critics to demand control over every aspect of elections preparation. Many politicians claim that the problems within INEC are designed to render it "non-functional or incompetent" as a pretext to delay the 2007 polls. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) With the passage of the Electoral Act, the rules of the game for Nigeria,s 2007 general election are finally in place. This will enable INEC and civil society to begin the process of voter education and will allow parties to begin planning in earnest for the 2007 polls. However, as the "proof of pudding is in the eating," the utility of these rules will only be proven through implementation. The new rules will only be an improvement if they are effectively enforced. One example, the ruling PDP has still not produced its audited accounts for the last election cycle, although all other major parties have complied. Meanwhile, rumors continue circulating about Obsanjo's desire for term extension with most politicians unwilling to accept victory so easily. Passage of the 2006 Electoral Act was a necessary condition for a reasonably free and fair election in 2007 but is by no means a panacaea. Political will to enforce the Act's provisions is the next component. FUREY