Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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06ABUJA1079 | 2006-05-10 13:41:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Abuja |
1. (SBU) Summary: Sudan Liberation Movement faction leader Minni Minnawi remains under considerable pressure on number of fronts for signing the Darfur Peace Agreement. His followers are seeking assistance in bolstering his ability to promote the deal in Darfur. SLM's Abdelwahid Nur continues to try to strike a supplementary side deal that includes a region and majority of seats in Darfur, and SLM participation in verifying the disarmament of the janjaweed Justice and Equality Movement leadership is sticking to its position, but some rank-and-file, particularly non-Kobe Zaghawa, support signing the agreement. The African Union is holding the agreement open for signature before May 15 and closing down its operations at the Chida International Hotel on May 11 when the Movements depart. This marks the last report from the Abuja venue. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - MINNI UNDER PRESSURE - - - - - - - - - - - 2. (SBU) Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) faction leader Minni Minnawi remains under considerable pressure for signing the agreement. He is a convenient target for Justice and Equality (JEM) propaganda claiming he has "sold out" to the Government of Sudan. In addition, SLM-Minni supporters claim that JEM's Dr. Khalil Ibrahim is spreading around "a lot" of money to Minni's commanders in the field. Khalil is allegedly offering them positions in his "army". Another popular accusation going around is that Minni signed under "American duress". Unfortunately, many of those around Minni are so provoked by these tactics that they fail to counteract them by coolly publicizing the benefits of the DPA to Minni's constituents. Finally, Ali Traiyo confided that Minni spent everything he had to secure consensus within his faction and has nothing left to offer those in the field. As a result, his forces are highly vulnerable to these verbal accusations and monetary enticements. Minni plans to go to Tripoli to appease the Libyans and most likely seek some support on the ground for his troops. - - - - - - - - - - - - - INSIDE ABDELWAHID'S HEAD - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4. (SBU) SLM faction leader Abdelwahid Nur still believes he can get a supplementary deal that will allow him to sign onto the DPA. Abdelwahid told remaining USDEL member on May 11 that he needs the following to bring the Fur onboard: Darfur must be a region, the Movements must have a majority of the seats and positions (55 percent) in Darfur, and SLM must be part of the verification of the disarmament of the janjaweed. Abdulwahid said he is completely satisfied with the Senior Special Assistant position but still believes SPLM will allow Darfur to become a region. Abakar Abubashir, Abdelwahid's chairman of the Wealthsharing Commission, said Abdelwahid met with Sudanese Government delegation head Magzoub Al Kaliffa the night before he departed. According to Abubashir and Abdelwahid, Magzoub agreed to consider a supplementary side deal. However, upon return to Khartoum, Magzoub, reneged on this promise. Nonetheless, Abdelwahid, surrounded by three close advisors (Ahmed Abdulshafi, Nouri Abdullah, and Ahmed Al Deen) continues down this path. 5. (SBU) Abdelwahid saw President Obasanjo on May 10 and presented his ideas and asked Obasanjo to assist him in brokering this deal. According to Nigerian Special Envoy Ambassador Abayomi, Obasanjo rejected the idea and told AU Chief Negotiator Sam Ibok that he does not want to see Abdelwahid again. Abdelwahid also refuses to participate in the Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and Consultation. Abdelwahid said that he is worried that the Government of Sudan is going to have him assassinated so that he can be replaced with a more pliable Fur leader. USDEL requested that Abdelwahid be careful not make any public statements about the agreement that could incite unrest in the refugee and IDP camps. At this point, given his demands, the odds remain low that Abdelwahid will sign, according to the AU mediation. Abdelwahid is moving to a cheaper hotel for the next few days and says he intends to travel to Chad and then to Jebel Marra. - - - - - - - - - - - JUSTICE AND EQUALITY - - - - - - - - - - - 6. (SBU) Justice and Equality Movement apparently continues its propaganda offensive against Minni. According to two ABUJA 00001079 002 OF 002 dissident JEM members, Mohammed Abdul Adam and Ismail Ahmed Rahama, Hassan Al-Turabi and Sadiq Al Maddi are arranging to disrupt an SLM-Minni press conference to be held in Khartoum. According to Adam, Turabi is angry that JEM did not deliver the Vice Presidency or the region. The dissidents said that the well-financed Khalil-run mafia will not stop in its efforts to undermine Minni. Adam said that there are many more disgruntled JEM members like him who are having difficulty returning to Egypt. The Egyptian Embassy in Nigeria is awaiting a list from Abderahmane Moussa verifying their opposition to JEM's decision not to sign. Adam said that Khalil is now in France, who supports his efforts to back Chadian President Idriss Deby. They also said Khalil is likely to travel to Tripoli and back to Chad within the coming week. Khalil is also exploiting the statements of Minni's London-based "assistant foreign minister" Ibrahim Adam Ibrahim (who was the planner for the Haskenita conference). Ibrahim has insinuated that Minni is waffling on the deal. - - - - COMMENT - - - - 7. (SBU) Minni's SLM faction is becoming desperate in its appeals for assistance. He urgently needs a public relations campaign in Darfur and in the international press promoting the agreement, not himself. The campaign, which could include radio spots and handbills, should outline the benefits and timeline and how Darfurians can participate in the process. SLM lacks any capable public relations personnel and lacks a headquarters after being moved out of Asmara. SLM is looking to establishing a SLM center in Abuja, Cairo, or Tripoli. In addition, SLM members are seeking political party training and have been invited to Juba to work with SPLM members there. SLM is asking for assistance with transport and securing a house there for members who will be virtual "apprentices" to SPLM. An important aspect of a public relations campaign is that it must target the Fur, Dadjo, Masselit, Birgid and other small ethnic groups to prevent the deal from looking like a Zaghawa pact with the Government of Sudan. The GOS should also be encouraged not to say or do anything that will undermine the signatories. Meanwhile, Abderahamane Moussa and other dissents should not be shut out of the process. In this vein, Minni needs to be encouraged to be highly inclusive of other groups in nominating people for positions in Darfur. CAMPBELL |