NEA PDAS JEFFREY DISCUSSES IRAN/IRAQ WITH MINSTATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 003978

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016
TAGS: PREL IR IZ AE
SUBJECT: NEA PDAS JEFFREY DISCUSSES IRAN/IRAQ WITH MINSTATE
SHA'ALI

REF: ABU DHABI 3434

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MARTIN QUINN, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: During an October 10 call on Minister of
State for Foreign Affairs Mohammed Hussain Al-Sha'ali, PDAS
Jim Jeffrey, accompanied by CDA, encouraged the UAEG to
assist USG efforts in Iraq, and support a unified
international front in response to Iranian nuclear ambitions.
Sha'ali stated that USG credibility is in question
throughout the region, and that many are watching to see if
U.S. actions in Iraq are impartial, or favor one sectarian
group over another. He maintained that all unrest in the
region springs from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and
that there can be no lasting peace, even in Iraq, as long as
the fundamental conflict remains unresolved. Sha'ali said
that the UAEG could support international sanctions against
Iran, but only if the measures were very limited and targeted
at nuclear non-proliferation. Sha'ali advised the USG, in
gathering support from other Arab nations, to keep its
message sharply focused on nuclear weapons and not to dilute
it with broader complaints about Iran. End summary.

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USG Credibility of Paramount
Importance to Peace Process
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2. (C) Sha'ali, a career diplomat and former ambassador to
the U.S. (1992-99),spoke plainly about the current situation
in Iraq and chances for peace in the region. He explained
that "While there is no question of support throughout the
region for the removal of Saddam Hussein, the U.S. has to
recognize that it did not just bring down the government, it
brought down the whole country," and any solution therefore
has to address more than just replacing the government.
Jeffrey acknowledged Sha'ali's concerns, noting however, that
any misstep now would only encourage groups such as Al-Qaeda
and Iran. Sha'ali asserted that a successful outcome in Iraq
can only be determined by the Iraqi people, stating that "No
matter what the US might do, if the Iraqi people are not
satisfied with the outcome, then it is not, and will not be
perceived as, a success."


3. (C) Jeffrey communicated to the Minister the need for UAEG
support in Iraq, particularly in bringing the Sunnis into
full participation, as well as in establishing functioning
federalism. Sha'ali responded by saying that there is no
easy solution to the current unrest in Iraq, but that it is
absolutely critical that the U.S. be perceived as "credible"
in its statements. Sha'ali stated that the Iraqi people (and
others in the region) were monitoring USG actions in Iraq
regarding the differing ethnic/religious/political groups to
see if actions match the public rhetoric, and warned that any
chance for peace and stability hinges on the perception that
the USG is not unjustly favoring one group over another.
Jeffrey assured the Minister that the USG is committed to go
after any parties that pose a risk, without targeting any
particular group.


4. (C) Sha'ali stated that the long-term solution to Iraq
would not be found solely within Iraq. "The recent
happenings in Lebanon clarified how all issues in the Middle
East are interrelated," he said. Simply put, "Without
resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there will not be
peace in the Middle East--not in Lebanon--not in Iraq." He
explained that "everybody tries to use the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict to justify their own political
objectives," and as long as that conflict continues it will
feed instability throughout the region. Sha'ali argued that
for the last six years, the USG put the peace process "on the
backseat" and has been treating the symptoms and not fighting
the disease--"the terrorists and not the cause." He
explained that groups like Hamas are "not part of the
problem, they are the result of the failed process--a
temporary phenomenon."


5. (C) "There are always reasons not to make peace," Sha'ali
stated, "One makes peace with enemies, not with friends.
Arafat, Abu Mazin, Hamas, Hizballah are all just excuses not
to deal with the real problem." Jeffrey pointed out that
"everybody has to be prepared to make the hard decisions,"
and that the solution cannot come from one source alone.
Sha'ali continued, "If you want to bring peace to the broader
Middle East, Lebanon, Iraq, etc., it has to begin with
Israel." Sha'ali said that the UAE is doing its part in
Lebanon with humanitarian and medical assistance, and
de-mining, but stated that the Lebanese government also seeks
U.S. political support. Jeffrey inquired if there would
necessarily be a peace if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
were resolved, or if there weren't other issues such as
liberalization, economic development, and the lack of social
justice that needed to be addressed. Sha'ali admitted that

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although resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is
not sufficient to bring peace to the region--it is absolutely
necessary. "Only the U.S.," he said, "can broker a peace."

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International Solidarity Required to Stop Iran
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6. (C) Jeffrey told Sha'ali that the international community
is at a critical juncture in stopping Iranian nuclear
ambitions. He pointed out that North Korea's nuclear test
underscores the danger of the international community failing
to act together, and stated that the North Koreans' actions
encourage and embolden Iran, as Iran's actions do the same
for North Korea. Jeffrey outlined the case for clear, strong
U.N. action against Iran's nuclear program, stating that
targeted sanctions will work if the international community
remains united. Sha'ali suggested that the UAEG could
support sanctions which specifically target nuclear weapons,
but "we would have great problems" with any economic
sanctions that are not directed specifically at preventing
the acquisition of nuclear weapons.


7. (C) Sha'ali advised that in presenting the case against
Iran to others in the region that "it would be a mistake to
make a laundry list of complaints against Iran, and then use
that list to pursue action." He explained that there are
many in the region that are supportive of the Iranians,
largely because of their support for Hizballah, but that "a
direct message, focused primarily on nuclear weapons and
avoiding clouding the matter with other issues," would be the
most effective in garnering support among other Arab states.

8.(C) Comment: Sha'ali was cordial, appearing to be speaking
freely and not from prepared and directed points, as is often
the case with officials outside the ruling families.
Although the conversation centered on the security situation
with Iran and Iraq, Sha'ali took the opportunity to criticize
the USG for "abandoning" the peace process in 2001, and
clearly wanted to press the old thesis that the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict underlies all security issues in
the region. PDAS also briefly described to the MinState the
function of our Iran watcher office in Dubai.


9. (C) Comment cont.: Although MinState Al Sha,ali is the
uncle of UAE doctoral student Saif Khalifa Al Sha'ali, who
was detained at LA Airport on August 21 (reftel) in an
alleged "profiling" incident that caught the UAE media's eye
for over a week, the Minister of State was completely
congenial throughout the meeting and made not so much as a
passing reference to the incident involving his nephew. End
comment.


10. (U) This message has been cleared by PDAS James Jeffrey.
QUINN