NEA PDAS JEFFREY DISCUSSES IRAN/IRAQ WITH MINSTATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 003978 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016 TAGS: PREL IR IZ AE SUBJECT: NEA PDAS JEFFREY DISCUSSES IRAN/IRAQ WITH MINSTATE SHA'ALI REF: ABU DHABI 3434 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MARTIN QUINN, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: During an October 10 call on Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mohammed Hussain Al-Sha'ali, PDAS Jim Jeffrey, accompanied by CDA, encouraged the UAEG to assist USG efforts in Iraq, and support a unified international front in response to Iranian nuclear ambitions. Sha'ali stated that USG credibility is in question throughout the region, and that many are watching to see if U.S. actions in Iraq are impartial, or favor one sectarian group over another. He maintained that all unrest in the region springs from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and that there can be no lasting peace, even in Iraq, as long as the fundamental conflict remains unresolved. Sha'ali said that the UAEG could support international sanctions against Iran, but only if the measures were very limited and targeted at nuclear non-proliferation. Sha'ali advised the USG, in gathering support from other Arab nations, to keep its message sharply focused on nuclear weapons and not to dilute it with broader complaints about Iran. End summary. -------------- USG Credibility of Paramount Importance to Peace Process -------------- ¶2. (C) Sha'ali, a career diplomat and former ambassador to the U.S. (1992-99),spoke plainly about the current situation in Iraq and chances for peace in the region. He explained that "While there is no question of support throughout the region for the removal of Saddam Hussein, the U.S. has to recognize that it did not just bring down the government, it brought down the whole country," and any solution therefore has to address more than just replacing the government. Jeffrey acknowledged Sha'ali's concerns, noting however, that any misstep now would only encourage groups such as Al-Qaeda and Iran. Sha'ali asserted that a successful outcome in Iraq can only be determined by the Iraqi people, stating that "No matter what the US might do, if the Iraqi people are not satisfied with the outcome, then it is not, and will not be perceived as, a success." ¶3. (C) Jeffrey communicated to the Minister the need for UAEG support in Iraq, particularly in bringing the Sunnis into full participation, as well as in establishing functioning federalism. Sha'ali responded by saying that there is no easy solution to the current unrest in Iraq, but that it is absolutely critical that the U.S. be perceived as "credible" in its statements. Sha'ali stated that the Iraqi people (and others in the region) were monitoring USG actions in Iraq regarding the differing ethnic/religious/political groups to see if actions match the public rhetoric, and warned that any chance for peace and stability hinges on the perception that the USG is not unjustly favoring one group over another. Jeffrey assured the Minister that the USG is committed to go after any parties that pose a risk, without targeting any particular group. ¶4. (C) Sha'ali stated that the long-term solution to Iraq would not be found solely within Iraq. "The recent happenings in Lebanon clarified how all issues in the Middle East are interrelated," he said. Simply put, "Without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there will not be peace in the Middle East--not in Lebanon--not in Iraq." He explained that "everybody tries to use the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to justify their own political objectives," and as long as that conflict continues it will feed instability throughout the region. Sha'ali argued that for the last six years, the USG put the peace process "on the backseat" and has been treating the symptoms and not fighting the disease--"the terrorists and not the cause." He explained that groups like Hamas are "not part of the problem, they are the result of the failed process--a temporary phenomenon." ¶5. (C) "There are always reasons not to make peace," Sha'ali stated, "One makes peace with enemies, not with friends. Arafat, Abu Mazin, Hamas, Hizballah are all just excuses not to deal with the real problem." Jeffrey pointed out that "everybody has to be prepared to make the hard decisions," and that the solution cannot come from one source alone. Sha'ali continued, "If you want to bring peace to the broader Middle East, Lebanon, Iraq, etc., it has to begin with Israel." Sha'ali said that the UAE is doing its part in Lebanon with humanitarian and medical assistance, and de-mining, but stated that the Lebanese government also seeks U.S. political support. Jeffrey inquired if there would necessarily be a peace if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were resolved, or if there weren't other issues such as liberalization, economic development, and the lack of social justice that needed to be addressed. Sha'ali admitted that ABU DHABI 00003978 002 OF 002 although resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not sufficient to bring peace to the region--it is absolutely necessary. "Only the U.S.," he said, "can broker a peace." -------------- - International Solidarity Required to Stop Iran -------------- - ¶6. (C) Jeffrey told Sha'ali that the international community is at a critical juncture in stopping Iranian nuclear ambitions. He pointed out that North Korea's nuclear test underscores the danger of the international community failing to act together, and stated that the North Koreans' actions encourage and embolden Iran, as Iran's actions do the same for North Korea. Jeffrey outlined the case for clear, strong U.N. action against Iran's nuclear program, stating that targeted sanctions will work if the international community remains united. Sha'ali suggested that the UAEG could support sanctions which specifically target nuclear weapons, but "we would have great problems" with any economic sanctions that are not directed specifically at preventing the acquisition of nuclear weapons. ¶7. (C) Sha'ali advised that in presenting the case against Iran to others in the region that "it would be a mistake to make a laundry list of complaints against Iran, and then use that list to pursue action." He explained that there are many in the region that are supportive of the Iranians, largely because of their support for Hizballah, but that "a direct message, focused primarily on nuclear weapons and avoiding clouding the matter with other issues," would be the most effective in garnering support among other Arab states. 8.(C) Comment: Sha'ali was cordial, appearing to be speaking freely and not from prepared and directed points, as is often the case with officials outside the ruling families. Although the conversation centered on the security situation with Iran and Iraq, Sha'ali took the opportunity to criticize the USG for "abandoning" the peace process in 2001, and clearly wanted to press the old thesis that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict underlies all security issues in the region. PDAS also briefly described to the MinState the function of our Iran watcher office in Dubai. ¶9. (C) Comment cont.: Although MinState Al Sha,ali is the uncle of UAE doctoral student Saif Khalifa Al Sha'ali, who was detained at LA Airport on August 21 (reftel) in an alleged "profiling" incident that caught the UAE media's eye for over a week, the Minister of State was completely congenial throughout the meeting and made not so much as a passing reference to the incident involving his nephew. End comment. ¶10. (U) This message has been cleared by PDAS James Jeffrey. QUINN