FNC ELECTIONS: "POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 002655 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM AE SUBJECT: FNC ELECTIONS: "POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, NOT DEMOCRACY" REF: A. ABU DHABI 0016 ¶B. DUBAI 1074 ¶C. ABU DHABI 2437 ¶D. 05 DUBAI 5906 ¶E. 05 ABU DHABI 4919 ABU DHABI 00002655 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHELE J. SISON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: On June 24, Ambassador called on Dr. Anwar Gargash, Minister of Federal National Council (FNC) Affairs, to discuss the FNC. Gargash described the upcoming indirect elections as "political participation, not democracy." (The FNC is at present an appointed consultative body rather than a legislature; by year end the FNC will be half-appointed and half-indirectly elected--refs A and B). He stated that the UAEG is cautious because it wants to make sure that the these first steps are successful, but also because the UAEG wants to ensure that they do not provide an entre for "destabilizing influences." In order to maintain the appearance of independence, the UAEG is not interested in any foreign governmental training or assistance, but will consider assistance from "more neutral" bodies. The indirect elections will be run by a National Election Committee, yet to be named. He admitted that the UAE's political development continued to lag behind others in the region, but noted that this first step would lead to direct FNC elections in as little as perhaps four years. End Summary. -------------- Cautious First Steps Driven by Security and "Stability" Concerns -------------- ¶2. (C) Gargash, a GWU and Cambridge University-educated professor of Political Science, spoke frankly about the announced FNC indirect elections, being careful to describe the elections as "political participation" and not "democracy." He was not apologetic for this distinction, noting that the UAE is a country devoid of an electoral or political culture, and that "successful elections are not simply a matter of creating institutions and making an announcement." He argued that educating citizens in the process and purpose were equally important. Gargash stated that "although we may be overdoing the planning, this is intentional; we want to ensure that (these initial first steps) are done well." ¶3. (C) Commenting on the reason for the announcement of indirect FNC elections, Gargash stated that the UAE "is very far ahead of the GCC in every area except in the political arena." He continued: "We have a self-image of having, and playing, a leadership role in the region, and our current political system does not reflect that status." He expressed a desire among many senior leaders to have a political system that reflects the open economic system that the UAE has already developed. He described political reform as the last step in "completing the circle" of political institutions and economic development and liberalization. ¶4. (C) Gargash repeatedly emphasized that "stability is what built this country," and is, and will remain, a top priority for the UAEG. Gargash stated that UAEG leaders "recognize that the world is changing," and that they "want to make sure that we are taking a lead, and not simply reacting to the events around us." Referring specifically to extremist concerns, he said, "We are aware of the Islamic fundamentalism sweeping through the region, and are careful to limit its influence here." Gargash stated that the announced elections are "not the result of a failed state; they are not even an immediate issue," and that unlike other democratizing states, because the "UAE is not cornered, we have the leisure to develop a plan well, a plan for current and future stability." ¶5. (C) Noting the success of the MEPI-sponsored International Republican Institute (IRI) "Women's Campaign School" training held in Dubai in May, Ambassador stated that the USG would like to play a useful role, and suggested several different programs in addition to MEPI that might support civic and political participation, including Fulbright specialists and the International Visitor program (Gargash and ForMin Abdullah bin Zayed had personally approved the first-ever IRI activity before it was launched). Gargash responded that the UAEG "is not involving any international groups or foreign delegations at this time." He noted that this decision "is for a purpose; we are in a region sensitive to foreign influence and want to appear that we are independent of foreign interference." He added that he appreciated the offer of assistance, stating that for now the greatest help would be to simply encourage the UAEG in its plan. (Note: He later added that programs from non-governmental, non-partisan groups might be acceptable. Embassy will pursue. End Note.) ABU DHABI 00002655 002.2 OF 002 -------------- Election Mechanics Laid Out ) Form as Important as Content -------------- ¶6. (C) Gargash stated that the Ministry of FNC Affairs has concentrated all its efforts to date on Stage I of the plan laid out in reftel B (Stage I establishes a framework, Stage II is the empowerment of the FNC, Stage III is direct elections of one-half of the FNC, and Stage IV is the direct elections of the entire, empowered, FNC.) Specifically his ministry has focused on establishing an "electoral college" consisting of representatives from all seven emirates and determining how the indirect elections will be carried out. He explained that all election activity will be instituted by a National Elections Committee, yet to be created. This committee will have the power and legal authority to make and enforce any necessary bylaws. Gargash stated that his ministry is coordinating all the FNC election-related work prior to turning it over to the committee instead of the Ministry of Interior because "we don't want the appearance" that the elections are in any way associated with the police. ¶7. (C) The National Committee will have seven functional supervisory committees (one for each emirate). The Committee's first responsibility will be to establish bylaws to guide the actions of the functional committees as well as the candidates. "We are trying to establish a civic culture," he stated, "including campaigns, which means we will also need campaign regulations, such as capping spending on advertising." Gargash expressed confidence that "We can have good regulations that will ensure fairness, without having a sanitizing effect on the candidates." ¶8. (C) Balloting will be kept simple, in order to provide transparency and success. Mobile committees will be formed, consisting of 30-40 individuals who will travel to each emirate to run the balloting. These mobile election committees will check names, explain voting procedures, and ensure that the election process is consistent in every emirate. Gargash emphasized "while content is important, so is form." Voting will be by secret ballot. Although no seats on the FNC will be specifically reserved for women, as previously reported, Gargash stated that the other half of the FNC will be appointed after the elections, and that it is likely that local rulers will use the appointments to balance the election results (i.e., appointing women if none are elected). He noted that his ministry had already received the list of 1000-plus proposed electors from Dubai Emirate, and that it contains the names of over 200 women. He stated that the guarantee of women's participation and the empowerment of women has never needed to be explicit, because in the UAE, as opposed to other countries in the region, full participation of women, both economically and politically, is implied and understood. ¶9. (C) In regard to the timing of the elections, Gargash said to watch for the naming of the National Committee, calling it "a trigger." "Once the Committee is named and the President and Supreme Council have empowered it, everything else will follow quickly," he said, "but until then, nothing else can happen." "At this point," he added, "we are waiting for the Supreme Council to make an announcement, and then we will follow." He added that once the process begins, things should progress quickly, leading to direct elections (Stage IV) in perhaps four years. (Note: On June 26, the UAE Cabinet approved the organizational structures for the FNC General Secretariat. End note.) SIPDIS ¶10. (C) Comment: During a June 24 meeting with Higher Education Minister Sheikh Nahyan bin Mubarak, Ambassador had also inquired about the upcoming FNC elections. Sheikh Nahyan was quick to correct, "elections, or selections?" For his part, Gargash noted that there are groups that think that the UAEG is not moving fast enough (possibly referring to reformers such as Sheikh Nahyan) as well as those that think that even these tentative steps are too aggressive (likely referring to the ruler of Sharjah). Although these first steps appear almost painfully slow and cautious, they indicate a recognition within the UAEG of the need to build an "electoral culture" within both the government and the broader population. The FNC issues have sparked, for the UAE, a lively public debate. For example, in a June 25 Agence France Presse story filed from Dubai, Mohammed Al-Rokn, an Islamist member of the UAE Jurists Association, was quoted as saying "The Muslim Brotherhood could currently win seats if direct elections were held today. I think that this is the main reason the government has opted for controlled elections." End Comment. SISON