UAE FM TELLS U/S JOSEPH: "USE UAE AS LAST RESORT"

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 001422 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR T - U/S RJOSEPH AND PNCNERNEY, ACTING A/S ISN RADEMAKER, ISN/CPI CRUSSELL, PM - A/S HILLEN, NEA FO A/S WELCH, GRAY ENERGY FOR CLERSTEN COMMERCE/BIS FOR U/S MCCORMICK, DAS WWYSONG TREASURY FOR U/S LEVEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016 TAGS: PARM ETTC MCAP IR AE SUBJECT: UAE FM TELLS U/S JOSEPH: "USE UAE AS LAST RESORT" Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (S/NF) Summary. Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan (AbZ) met April 8 to discuss Iran's proliferation and regional ambitions. U/S Joseph conveyed that the United States considers Iran a serious threat to international peace and security, and that the USG will not tolerate Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon. AbZ emphasized that the UAE considers Iran a significant threat, but he noted that the UAE's close proximity to Iran put the country in a "vulnerable" position. AbZ requested that the USG approach the UAE on interdiction requests "only as a last resort." He also stated that the UAE aims to maintain its robust trading relationship with Iran as a measure to enhance its security. U/S Joseph outlined what he hoped would be a new security dialogue on defensive measures. AbZ emphasized that in addition to addressing the security concerns posed by Iran's nuclear weapons development, we also needed to develop a strategy to counter Iran's "regional meddling." He also expressed UAE's support for the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and promised to provide an endorsement of the PSI within two days. End summary. ¶2. (S/NF) Undersecretary Joseph, accompanied by Ambassador, NSC Director for Persian Gulf Affairs Nikhil Ramchand, and T Senior Policy Advisors Patricia McNerney, Jason Ellis, and Gregory Richard, met on April 8 with AbZ, MFA Under Secretary Abdullah Rashid al-Noami, and MFA Director of International Affairs Yacoub al-Hosani (a member of the U.S./UAE Counterproliferation Task Force). U/S Joseph conveyed to AbZ the seriousness with which the United States views the Iranian threat, noting that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapons capability in order to advance its regional agenda, and that the acquisition of this capability would lead to a fundamental change of the region's strategic environment. He also observed that Iran's activities could lead to a regional nuclear arms-race, and that Iran could divert fissile material to terrorists. U/S Joseph made clear that the USG will not accept a nuclear-armed Iran. He conveyed to AbZ that he hoped to engage in a dialogue with our key allies, including the UAE, to develop a broader strategy for countering the threat. ¶3. (S/NF) AbZ, a thoughtful interlocutor who took notes throughout the meeting, agreed that Iran poses a common threat to both the U.S. and the UAE, and that our two countries have a "common desire to succeed." He also noted that the combination of Iran and terrorism is something that cannot be tolerated. "The threat from al-Qa'ida would be minor if Iran has nukes." AbZ said the UAE would be a partner with the U.S. to try to delay an Iranian nuclear weapons capability, but he noted that simply changing the regime would not necessarily change Iran's goals. U/S Joseph agreed, but noted that the worst combination is "nuclear weapons in the hands of this particular regime." AbZ: How to Curb Proliferation Without Affecting Trade? -------------- -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) AbZ assured U/S Joseph that the UAE will be "very serious" in helping the U.S. resolve the challenges with Iran, but he said he wanted to be sure the USG understands that the UAE is in a very difficult position. "If you can solve something without involving the UAE, please do so. Try to use us as a very last resort." Although AbZ acknowledged that the Iranians are taking advantage of the UAE's open trade policies, he bluntly stated that the UAE's goal is to maintain the robust trading relationship with Iran. "Our major desire is to be safe, and one way to do that is to keep the trade dialogue continuing." AbZ suggested that he does not believe the UAE can curb proliferation without also curbing trade. "I'm not sure how we can work to defend our cities if we have an open trade policy where containers can go back and forth between the UAE and Iran." U/S Joseph replied that he understood the UAEG's position, but he stressed that "at critical points in history, all governments need to stand up and be accounted for." Joseph explained that now is the critical time for the UAE to step up, because Iran's activities are approaching a "point of no return." ABU DHABI 00001422 002 OF 003 ¶5. (S/NF) Note: After the formal meeting, U/S Joseph raised the UAE's poor 2006 interdiction record on shipments suspected of being destined for Iran's WMD and missile programs in a pull aside with AbZ. He emphasized that taking action on these requests would be one way for the UAEG to demonstrate its commitment. AbZ said that the UAE's hesitation to inspect cargo bound for Iran is "all about our safety and security. Every time we do this it makes us more vulnerable. ... We need to know that you have asked others to do their part, because you are pushing us with Iranians." However, he concluded that "partners we are, and partners we will be." End Note. Enhancing the Security Dialogue -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) Stressing that there must be "consequences for Iran continuing down this path," U/S Joseph explained that if Iran is unresponsive in the 30 day period alloted by the UNSC, the USG will push for a UNSCR Chapter VII resolution, and that if the UN route is not successful, that the U.S. and its allies will look at targeted sanctions. He assured AbZ that the USG is carefully considering what type of sanctions will be successful, without "driving the people into the arms of the Iranian regime." Explaining that -- in conjunction with the multilateral diplomatic efforts -- the USG wants to begin a security dialogue on defensive measures with the UAE and other Gulf countries, U/S Joseph outlined security capabilities that Gulf countries might consider to counter the Iranian threat and enhance deterrence: -- "Counterproliferation Planning" to prepare for the possible use of WMD by enhancing bilateral and multi-lateral training and exercises. U/S Joseph explained that this could include consequence management training and counter-ballistic missile exercises. U/S Joseph also stressed the importance of long-term efforts to transform and modernize the UAE's defensive capabilities. -- "Denial and Interdiction of Proliferation Efforts," such as cracking down on front companies and endorsing the Proliferation Security Initiative's Statement of Interdiction Principles (PSI SOPs). AbZ told U/S Joseph that he should expect a memo from the UAE "today or tomorrow" endorsing the PSO SOPs. U/S Joseph replied that we would welcome such a note, and that the USG hopes the UAE will send a delegation to the upcoming PSI meeting in Poland. -- "Deterrence and Dissuasion" to deter Iran from acquiring or using WMD by creating a layered missile defense system (ex: Patriot deployment and/or sea-based AEGIS deployment). To further dissuade Iran, U/S Joseph encouraged that the U.S. and UAE jointly establish declatory policies that indicate we would respond if, for example, Iran uses WMD or closes the Strait of Hormuz. AbZ appreciated U/S Joseph's comments that there must be consequences if Iran used WMD or closed down the straits, and he seemed interested in the possibility of deploying the sea-based AEGIS vessels. AbZ appeared concerned that these assurances might not be enough, however, noting that there is a short distance between Iran and the UAE. He also stated that the UAE is not certain that the Patriot system "really works." U/S Joseph mentioned encouraging results from recent anti-ballistic missile tests and explained that the defensive measures do not have to be 100% accurate; they just need to be "credible enough" to deter Iran by convincing them that the effectiveness of their offensive measures had been eroded. ¶7. (C) U/S Joseph added that PM Assistant Secretary John Hillen planned to visit UAE in May to pursue these topics further, and develop concrete proposals for action. UAE Concerned About Iranian Influence in the Region -------------- -------------- ¶8. (S) AbZ agreed with U/S Joseph's concerns about Iran's proliferation activities, but he noted, "We have to find a solution where we work both issues simultaneously -- Iran's WMD aims, and its influence in the region." AbZ reiterated the UAEG's oft-voiced concern about Iranian meddling in Iraq, ABU DHABI 00001422 003 OF 003 Afghanistan, and the region. "We want to avoid having what happened in Lebanon from happening again in Iraq, where people pushed the Shia to the point where they had no choice but Hizballah." He also stated his belief that Iran is interfering in the domestic affairs in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia. Strengthening Public Diplomacy Efforts -------------- ¶9. (S) AbZ said that "we all" need to do a better job of public diplomacy in the region, but he noted that it is "hard to market a product which is hard to sell." AbZ stated that the Middle East Peace Process plays a fundamental role in regional public diplomacy efforts. "People see different policies toward Iran and Israel, and it is often hard to sell to a public audience. We all have to do our share by making our people understand our policies and how these issues are all inter-related." In addition to outreach in the region, AbZ suggested that we should engage in more public diplomacy efforts within the U.S. and other western countries. U/S Joseph underscored the importance of the UAE participating in outreach efforts by providing a public recognition of Iran's threat to the region. Iran's "Smart Diplomacy" -------------- ¶10. (S/NF) Noting that Iranians are "smart people," AbZ stated that Iran is engaging in "smart diplomacy" by reaching out to its neighbors to try to convince them that its nuclear programs are peaceful and safe. He said that the Iranian Ambassador had recently been to his office to explain the safety of the Bushehr reactor. The Iranian Ambassador invited a UAE team to come to Iran to visit the reactor, and he offered to send an Iranian team to explain the peaceful purpose of Iran's nuclear program. During the meeting with U/S Joseph, AbZ listened with great interest to a briefing on Iran's WMD and missile programs, including nuclear weaponization, as well as to a short description of Tehran's chemical and biological capabilities. ¶11. (C) This cable has been cleared by U/S Joseph. SISON