UAEG REGISTERS CONCERN OVER TENSION BETWEEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 001329 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2016 TAGS: PREL AF PK AE SUBJECT: UAEG REGISTERS CONCERN OVER TENSION BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On March 29, U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ronald Neumann, visited Abu Dhabi and met with MFA U/S Abdullah Rashid al Noaimi. Al Noaimi expressed concern about growing tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and suggested including India in trilateral talks to ease the friction. Ambassador Neumann acknowledged the growing tensions, but stated that the Coalition (and NATO) was in a better position to act as a third party facilitator. Al-Noaimi pressed Neumann for intelligence regarding Afghanistan, particularly about the possibility of an Afghan-Indian conspiracy. Neumann dismissed the possibility of a conspiracy, encouraging al-Noaimi to take advantage of the UAE's relationship with Pakistan to press Musharref to calm his rhetoric against Afghanistan. Al-Noaimi opined that Musharref is insecure and acting from a sense of personal vulnerability. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Citing "alarming signals" that the UAEG had received from Pakistan, al-Noaimi spoke of increased tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and stated that Pakistan had expressed growing suspicion of Afghanistan and of an "Afghan-Indian conspiracy." He described these tensions as "very dangerous" stating that the UAEG was worried that they may "get out of hand" and called for a security meeting focused on getting the three countries together. Neumann explained that although each side was suspicious of the other, there was no evidence of any such conspiracy, agreeing the only way to move forward was to get Afghanistan and Pakistan to work together. ¶3. (C) Al-Noaimi suggested that it may be beneficial to establish trilateral meetings between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India as a way to ease current tensions. Neumann noted that while it would be useful to add a third party to the discussion, including India would likely introduce a long history of bilateral issues that would only serve to distract and impede any real progress. He suggested that involving the Coalition as the third party would be more beneficial, since the Coalition is in a better position to encourage security and intelligence cooperation. As NATO takes over it may logically take this role over as well. Al-Noaimi warned that the closeness of the U.S. and India might push Pakistan towards China, which the UAEG sees as a dangerous movement, and that the UAEG wants to see more political and security engagement between the two countries. Neumann said that the U.S. is in a trilateral security agreement with Pakistan and Afghanistan, and agreed that it would help build a more stable relationship by extending the trilateral arrangement into other fields. ¶4. (C) Al-Noaimi stated that internal troubles would likely continue to be a distraction for Pakistan. He warned Ambassador Neumann not to view any Musharref's action as representative of Pakistan as a whole, explaining that Musharref is justifiably concerned for his own safety from his military and intelligence sectors, and that all of his words and actions are colored by a sense of personal vulnerability. Neumann noted that neither Musharref nor Karzai had a domestic political price to pay for verbal attacks on the other country, thereby exacerbating the situation. He urged al-Noaimi to use the UAE-Pakistani relationship to press Musharref to moderate his tone. Embassy Kabul will continue to press Karzai to do the same. ¶5. (U) This message has been cleared by Ambassador Neumann in Kabul. MINIMIZED CONSIDERED. SISON