COTE D'IVOIRE: GBAGBO SHOWS BANNY WHO'S BOSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000051 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015 TAGS: PGOV ASEC IV SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: GBAGBO SHOWS BANNY WHO'S BOSS Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) While the pretext for the current unrest is the International Working Group's recommendation that the mandate of the National Assembly not be extended, it is clear that the real aim is to undermine Prime Minister Banny. We have indeed heard that the National Assembly's mandate is a "red line" issue for the rank and file from President Gbagbo's Ivoirian Popular Front (FPI) party, but they were much more upset over the announcement of Banny's cabinet, in which the FPI's influence was significantly diminished. In any case these are not spontaneous protests -- Gbagbo is clearly orchestrating them, capitalizing on the anger of his supporters but deliberately aiming to undermine Banny's government from the outset. ¶2. (C) In this he has succeeded. The incidents of the past few days show clearly that Banny has no control over security forces, while Gbagbo can call out his followers at will to disrupt order with impunity. With Banny forced into hiding, and Ivoirian Radio and Television (RTI) commandeered by the protesters, the power-sharing arrangement envisaged by UNSCR 1633 has failed its first big test, and the Ivoirian peace process is once again in disarray. It will not be possible to simply patch it back together. The international community will need to come up with a new approach to put this country back on the path to elections. For a start, some way needs to be found to bolster the authority of the prime minister, to allow him to carry out the task of leading this country to elections in less than ten months. ¶3. (C) President Obasanjo coming to Abidjan might help to get the Young Patriots off the streets, but will probably not address the more fundamental problem of real authority for the Prime Minister. That will need to be addresed, however, if the Prime Minister is to survive the crisis in incubation. The events of this week suggest it is time to look seriously at sanctions. Hooks