COTE D'IVOIRE: PEACE IS IN THE AIR, FOR THE MOMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000332 SIPDIS SIPDIS KINSHASA PASS TO BRAZZAVILLE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV ASEC IV SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: PEACE IS IN THE AIR, FOR THE MOMENT Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary. Peace is in the air. Prime Minister Banny has an impressive list of accomplishments, and political leaders seem to have set their minds on elections. Still, there is a daunting list of tasks yet to be completed, including issuing national identification cards and registering voters, disarmament, and dismantling the militias. Holding an election, in and of itself, will not necessarily heal this country's deep wounds even if it is relatively free and fair. As long as the current political and ethnic tensions continue, this country will remain divided in reality even if it is reunified on the map. End Summary. ¶2. (C) As the first quarter of 2006 comes to an end, there has been significant progress in Cote d'Ivoire's peace process but much remains to be done. ¶3. (C) Prime Minister Banny has succeeded in establishing a good working relationship with President Gbagbo, based on a political marriage of convenience. Gbagbo wants to win this presidential election, and Banny wants to win the next one. Senior government officials tell us that Banny makes a point of showing respect for Gbagbo as head of state, and this translates into respect by the ministers for Banny as prime minister. ¶4. (C) Banny has an impressive list of accomplishments to his credit. He persuaded Gbagbo to accept a cabinet with a strong opposition presence, with rebel New Forces (FN) leader Soro as number two in the government and Banny himself keeping both the finance minister and communications minister portfolios. He brought the three principal opposition leaders together with Gbagbo for a summit meeting in Yamoussoukro, where he persuaded the four leaders to agree on the way forward on many key issues, in particular breaking the deadlock over the leadership of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI). He traveled to the rebel capital of Bouake and persuaded Soro to return to Abidjan and begin participating in cabinet meetings. He persuaded his government to adopt the International Working Group (IWG) road map for the peace process as its own. He brought about the resumption of school examinations in the North. Direct talks are planned to resume soon between the chiefs of staff of the FN and government armed forces. President Gbagbo has even given his chief of staff, General Mangou, a green light to discuss creating a combined joint staff, though many of Gbagbo's followers oppose this. Banny appears poised to conclude a new agreement with the World Bank and IMF to clear Cote d'Ivoire's arrears with the Bank and resume lending by the international financial institutions. ¶5. (C) The Ivoirian political players seem to have set their minds on elections. The opposition Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire (PDCI) held a big nomination rally for their candidate, former President Bedie. The opposition Rally of Republicans (RDR),the party of former Prime Minister Ouattara who is also a probable candidate, underwent an internal restructuring to broaden its leadership, and Ouattara made a well-publicized pre-campaign swing through the North, his home region. Indeed, Gbagbo confidant and PDCI turncoat Laurent Fologo also was able to travel to the North to bury his brother, thought not with as much fanfare as he wanted. We have even seen a few "I Love Gbagbo" T-shirts in Abidjan. Peace is clearly in the air. ¶6. (C) Still, the list of tasks yet to be completed is daunting, and the government is only now starting to address the really thorny issues that trouble this country. There are now only seven months left before presidential elections are supposed to be held in October. Former UN High representative for Elections Antonio Monteiro estimated that six months would be needed to complete the process of issuing national identification cards and registering voters, and this could be a very optimistic estimate. It is good that the leaders agreed at the Yamoussoukro summit to do these two things simultaneously, but this process still has not started. Since Cote d'Ivoire law requires a three month period for examining the voter registration lists after they are completed, it looks like it is already too late to have the elections on schedule. October is not a deadline engraved in stone -- the country can survive the passing of October 31 without elections as long as substantial preparations have been made by then, and a firm date has been set in the not too distant future. ¶7. (C) Other than plans for the two chiefs of staff to start talking soon, there has been no sign of movement toward ABIDJAN 00000332 002 OF 002 Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR). Clearing the arrears with the World Bank would be an important step forward, opening the way for the World Bank's promised $80 million contribution toward the costs of DDR. However, one of the most important obstacles for DDR, and one of the thorniest isues of the day, is identification. FN leader Soro made clear to Deputy Assistant Secretary Thomas-Greenfield at their March 16 meeting that the FN will not finally lay down their arms until they and other disenfranchised Ivoirians receive documentation of their citizenship. President Gbagbo, for his part, reportedly said at the March 29 cabinet meeting that he thinks the identification process should be done after the upcoming presidential elections, and Mrs. Gbagbo, in her capacity as the Secretary General of the CNRD (National Congress of Resistance for Democracy),the recently formed coalition of pro-Gbagbo political formations, told reporters the same day that there can be no identification before disarmament. ¶8. (C) Another FN precondition for beginning to disarm has been dismantling of the pro-Gbagbo militias. Indeed, the IWG roadmap also calls for DDR and dismantlement of the militias to begin simultaneously. The militias have not been heard from much lately, but they are still there and at least some of them are armed. There has been no mention of beginning to dismantle them. ¶9. (C) Comment. In fact, a major unanswered question is how much peace, love, and understanding Gbagbo's followers can take. They have long lived by confrontation and intimidation. It is important to bear in mind that holding an election, in and of itself, will not necessarily heal this country's deep wounds even if it is relatively free and fair. It would take a major change in this country's mindset for both winner and losers to graciously accept the results. Another important thing to bear in mind is the enormous gap between Cote d'Ivoire's political elite and its people. Political leaders live in a world far removed from even their party faithful, much less the population at large. Perhaps the biggest manifestation of this gap is the fact that some of the poorest people, cocoa farmers, are still being taxed at a rate of 50 percent to keep the corrupt political machinery running. The field of likely front-runners in the election is lackluster to say the least. None of them have much appeal beyond their loyal followers. Meanwhile, ordinary people still identify themselves much more by region and ethnicity than by political orientation. As long as the current political and ethnic tensions continue, this country will remain divided in reality even if it is reunified on the map. End Comment. Hooks