C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000332

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KINSHASA PASS TO BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV ASEC IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: PEACE IS IN THE AIR, FOR THE MOMENT


Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary. Peace is in the air. Prime Minister Banny
has an impressive list of accomplishments, and political
leaders seem to have set their minds on elections. Still,
there is a daunting list of tasks yet to be completed,
including issuing national identification cards and
registering voters, disarmament, and dismantling the
militias. Holding an election, in and of itself, will not
necessarily heal this country's deep wounds even if it is
relatively free and fair. As long as the current political
and ethnic tensions continue, this country will remain
divided in reality even if it is reunified on the map. End
Summary.


2. (C) As the first quarter of 2006 comes to an end, there
has been significant progress in Cote d'Ivoire's peace
process but much remains to be done.


3. (C) Prime Minister Banny has succeeded in establishing a
good working relationship with President Gbagbo, based on a
political marriage of convenience. Gbagbo wants to win this
presidential election, and Banny wants to win the next one.
Senior government officials tell us that Banny makes a point
of showing respect for Gbagbo as head of state, and this
translates into respect by the ministers for Banny as prime
minister.


4. (C) Banny has an impressive list of accomplishments to his
credit. He persuaded Gbagbo to accept a cabinet with a
strong opposition presence, with rebel New Forces (FN) leader
Soro as number two in the government and Banny himself
keeping both the finance minister and communications minister
portfolios. He brought the three principal opposition
leaders together with Gbagbo for a summit meeting in
Yamoussoukro, where he persuaded the four leaders to agree on
the way forward on many key issues, in particular breaking
the deadlock over the leadership of the Independent Electoral
Commission (CEI). He traveled to the rebel capital of Bouake
and persuaded Soro to return to Abidjan and begin
participating in cabinet meetings. He persuaded his
government to adopt the International Working Group (IWG)
road map for the peace process a

s its own. He brought about
the resumption of school examinations in the North. Direct
talks are planned to resume soon between the chiefs of staff
of the FN and government armed forces. President Gbagbo has
even given his chief of staff, General Mangou, a green light
to discuss creating a combined joint staff, though many of
Gbagbo's followers oppose this. Banny appears poised to
conclude a new agreement with the World Bank and IMF to clear
Cote d'Ivoire's arrears with the Bank and resume lending by
the international financial institutions.


5. (C) The Ivoirian political players seem to have set their
minds on elections. The opposition Democratic Party of Cote
d'Ivoire (PDCI) held a big nomination rally for their
candidate, former President Bedie. The opposition Rally of
Republicans (RDR), the party of former Prime Minister
Ouattara who is also a probable candidate, underwent an
internal restructuring to broaden its leadership, and
Ouattara made a well-publicized pre-campaign swing through
the North, his home region. Indeed, Gbagbo confidant and
PDCI turncoat Laurent Fologo also was able to travel to the
North to bury his brother, thought not with as much fanfare
as he wanted. We have even seen a few "I Love Gbagbo"
T-shirts in Abidjan. Peace is clearly in the air.


6. (C) Still, the list of tasks yet to be completed is
daunting, and the government is only now starting to address
the really thorny issues that trouble this country. There
are now only seven months left before presidential elections
are supposed to be held in October. Former UN High
representative for Elections Antonio Monteiro estimated that
six months would be needed to complete the process of issuing
national identification cards and registering voters, and
this could be a very optimistic estimate. It is good that
the leaders agreed at the Yamoussoukro summit to do these two
things simultaneously, but this process still has not
started. Since Cote d'Ivoire law requires a three month
period for examining the voter registration lists after they
are completed, it looks like it is already too late to have
the elections on schedule. October is not a deadline
engraved in stone -- the country can survive the passing of
October 31 without elections as long as substantial
preparations have been made by then, and a firm date has been
set in the not too distant future.


7. (C) Other than plans for the two chiefs of staff to start
talking soon, there has been no sign of movement toward

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Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR).
Clearing the arrears with the World Bank would be an
important step forward, opening the way for the World Bank's
promised $80 million contribution toward the costs of DDR.
However, one of the most important obstacles for DDR, and one
of the thorniest isues of the day, is identification. FN
leader Soro made clear to Deputy Assistant Secretary
Thomas-Greenfield at their March 16 meeting that the FN will
not finally lay down their arms until they and other
disenfranchised Ivoirians receive documentation of their
citizenship. President Gbagbo, for his part, reportedly said
at the March 29 cabinet meeting that he thinks the
identification process should be done after the upcoming
presidential elections, and Mrs. Gbagbo, in her capacity as
the Secretary General of the CNRD (National Congress of
Resistance for Democracy), the recently formed coalition of
pro-Gbagbo political formations, told reporters the same day
that there can be no identification before disarmament.


8. (C) Another FN precondition for beginning to disarm has
been dismantling of the pro-Gbagbo militias. Indeed, the IWG
roadmap also calls for DDR and dismantlement of the militias
to begin simultaneously. The militias have not been heard
from much lately, but they are still there and at least some
of them are armed. There has been no mention of beginning to
dismantle them.


9. (C) Comment. In fact, a major unanswered question is how
much peace, love, and understanding Gbagbo's followers can
take. They have long lived by confrontation and
intimidation. It is important to bear in mind that holding
an election, in and of itself, will not necessarily heal this
country's deep wounds even if it is relatively free and fair.
It would take a major change in this country's mindset for
both winner and losers to graciously accept the results.
Another important thing to bear in mind is the enormous gap
between Cote d'Ivoire's political elite and its people.
Political leaders live in a world far removed from even their
party faithful, much less the population at large. Perhaps
the biggest manifestation of this gap is the fact that some
of the poorest people, cocoa farmers, are still being taxed
at a rate of 50 percent to keep the corrupt political
machinery running. The field of likely front-runners in the
election is lackluster to say the least. None of them have
much appeal beyond their loyal followers. Meanwhile,
ordinary people still identify themselves much more by region
and ethnicity than by political orientation. As long as the
current political and ethnic tensions continue, this country
will remain divided in reality even if it is reunified on the
map. End Comment.


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