THE CYCLES OF THE IVOIRIAN POLITICAL CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 001037 SIPDIS SIPDIS KINSHASA FOR BRAZZAVILLE; EUCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL IV SUBJECT: THE CYCLES OF THE IVOIRIAN POLITICAL CRISIS Classified By: AMBASSADOR AUBREY HOOKS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Cote d'Ivoire is currently at an impasse, which is the most vulnerable point in the cycle that characterizes the political crisis. The cycle is composed essentially of four stages. First, the principal political actors sign a new agreement to relaunch the political process. Secondly, the agreement starts to break down during implementation (the devil is always in the details). Thirdly, an impasse is reached. Finally, a (new) mediator convokes the political actors who sign a new agreement and the cycle repeats itself. Each time the cycle repeats itself, some progress is made, but never enough to bring the country out of crisis. ¶2. (C) The political process is again broken. Prime Minister Banny and his Government resigned on September 6, and although commissioned by President Gbagbo to form a new government, he has so far been unable to do so. The Government administration is now in a holding pattern until a new government is formed. Moreover, the peace process has broken down again. The identification process and DDR, including military talks on reintegration of the rebel forces into the armed forces of Cote d'Ivoire (FANCI),have by and large been abandoned. ¶3. (C) The political actors are more inclined to get into mischief when the political process breaks down. President Gbagbo is more likely to send the Young Patriots and other militias into the streets to intimidate the political opposition. The likelihood of his doing so goes up when he seeks to reinforce his political position as a new mediation effort takes over or when he seeks to undermine a new agreement, in effect hastening the breakdown of the agreement. It was during a similar impasse that he launched the attack against the rebels in November 2004. The political opposition, however, is becoming bolder and more willing to confront the Young Patriots in the streets, as we saw in late July in Grand Bassam and other cities. We are not aware of any specific activity being planned at this time. We are also not aware of any unusual activity on the part of the armed forces, although some interlocutors express concern that the military may be tempted to intervene when the politicians cannot come to an agreement. ¶4. (C) Given this current impasse in the lead-up to the meeting of the African Union in New York on September 18 and of the meeting of heads of state which UNSG Koffi Annan has organized for September 20, now is a time of greater uncertainty. The Embassy remains in close contact with all the major actors in order to detect early warning signs of impending trouble. Hooks