LOCAL ELECTIONS -- HORSE-TRADING NEARLY OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 001115

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO, BENEDICT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS -- HORSE-TRADING NEARLY OVER

REF: A. ZAGREB 834

B. ZAGREB 827

C. ZAGREB 792

D. ZAGREB 625

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Frank for reasons 1.5 (b) & (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: After six weeks of
unprecedented horse-trading following Croatia's May 15 local
elections, city councils and county assemblies have elected
mayors and county prefects in all but a handful of
jurisdictions. Political parties turned to coalitions of all
stripes in the struggle for power, often abandoning party
principles to pair with the strangest of bedfellows. In
several high-profile cases, the party that received the
greatest number of votes was shut out of power by an alliance
of "everyone else," fueling cries for direct election of
mayors and prefects which the government will be unable to
ignore in future electoral reform. All-Croat coalitions in
the city of Knin and the county around Vukovar kept the
leading ethnic Serb party out of top positions in these
symbolically-charged areas, stalling ethnic reconciliation
efforts and illustrating Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's need to
placate the right wing of the ruling Croatian Democratic
Union (HDZ).


2. (SBU) Despite lackluster results at the polls, the HDZ
made the most of post-electoral negotiations and actually
expanded its presence in county government and held its
ground at the city level, albeit with a far greater
dependence on coalition partners than ever before. Their key
local partner has become the right-wing Croatian Party of
Rights (HSP),which has used its position as the swing vote
in many localities to bargain its way into two mayoral seats,
one prefect's office, and a relatively large number of
governing coalitions. This will be the HSP's first
opportunity to prove itself in government leadership.


3. (SBU) The Social Democratic Party (SDP),Croatia's main
opposition, gained the most in Zagreb, where it will rule
without its estranged partner, the Croatian People's Party
(HNS). SDP relations are now strained with most of its
previous coalition partners. Independent lists played
deciding roles in several important cities, including Osijek,
Split, and Zadar. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

PARTY BY PARTY: WHO IS IN POWER
--------------


4. (C) The HDZ: Croatia's largest party now holds nine
prefect positions, one more than four years ago, but it
shares power with the HSP and other parties in eight of those
counties. The HDZ added the county around Dubrovnik to its
power base, putting all counties south of Karlovac under HDZ
leadership. The party also won the coalition battle in the
city of Split, taking the city away from the liberals with
the help of an independent list of businessmen. The HDZ led
the building of all-Croat coalitions in the city of Knin and
in Vukovar county that kept the Independent Democratic
Serbian Party (SDSS) out of power despite its top finish at
the polls. PM Sanader admitted to SDSS Vice President
Milorad Pupovac that the HDZ could not politically afford to
let ethnic Serbs into Knin or Vukovar local governments given
the significance of both places during the war.


5. (SBU) The ruling party's greatest loss came at the hands
of Osijek strong man Branimir Glavas, expelled from the party
in April reportedly for his views on regionalization. Not
only did Glavas outpoll the HDZ by more than two to one in
both the city and the county of Osijek with his independent
list, he succeeded in building post-electoral coalitions with
the HSP that completely shut the HDZ out of government.


6. (SBU) The SDP: Croatia's second-largest party, the
center-left SDP, now leads three counties, including the City
of Zagreb (the only city with county status),and shares
power in five others with its allies in the Croatian Peasant
Party (HSS),the Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU),and the
Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS). The SDP also gained an
important mayoral position in Velika Gorica and both the
mayor and prefect positions in Sisak.


7. (C) The local elections, however, also served to highlight
friction between the SDP and its traditional partners. A
strong SDP showing in Zagreb was expected, but party leaders
were most pleased by the fact that former mayor Milan Bandic
was able to return to office without the help of the HNS.
The SDP's relationship with its old partner in city
government appears to have soured beyond repair in the
capital. Ties are also strained with the HSS, SDP's
pre-election coalition partner in most areas, after the
peasant party's poor performance in local elections and
difficult post-election negotiations. Former Minister of

Foreign Affairs and newly-elected SDP Mayor of Velika Gorica
Tonino Picula told Poloff that the SDP will never run with
the HSS again.


8. (SBU) The HSP: While the HSP's campaign rhetoric did not
hold true to the "reformed" image it tried to sell to the
international community prior to local elections, the party
secured its place as the leading representative of Croatia's
far-right. Aggressive coalition-building and clever
exploitation of standoffs between larger parties has given
the HSP local government representation out of proportion
with its 10 percent electoral finish. For the first time,
the party holds mayoral offices in Croatia's fourth and fifth
largest cities, Osijek and Slavonski Brod, the county prefect
position in Viroviticko-Prodravska County to the west of
Osijek, and deputy prefect and assembly chairman positions in
as many as 10 counties. The HSP even managed to enter
governing coalitions with the SDP in Velika Gorica and in
Bjelovarsko-Bilogorska county. As the HSP has never held
significant local leadership positions, the impact of the
party's increased influence remains unclear.


9. (SBU) The HSS: The Peasant Party was the big loser of
these elections, dropping from eight county prefects to four.
While this still represents disproportionate representation
for this shrinking party, the decrease in power and its
fallout with the SDP have sparked turmoil in the party. An
HSS defector was also a key factor in bringing Glavas'
independent list to power in Osijek County. Rumors are now
circulating about a future leadership challenge to HSS
President and former Parliament Speaker Zlatko Tomcic.


10. (U) The others: The Pensioners' Party (HSU) managed to
enter a dozen county government coalitions, while the
Croatian People's Party (HNS) secured two prefect positions.

COALITION CRITICISM: REFORM ON THE WAY
--------------


11. (SBU) Post-electoral coalition deals have been roundly
criticized by the public and all relevant political figures
in the country, including President Stjepan Mesic himself.
The practice of forming what has often been referred to as
"unprincipled" coalitions led the GoC to propose changes to
the local election law. PM Sanader announced on June 23 that
the new legislation to govern local elections in the future
would provide for the direct election of prefects and mayors,
eliminating post-election negotiations. Sanader said he
would seek consensus of all parliamentary parties on this
issue, which given the current public mood, he is likely to
get.
FRANK


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