MARKARYAN'S STATEMENT ON ARMENIA-TURKEY BORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000847

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/SNEC, EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU AM
SUBJECT: MARKARYAN'S STATEMENT ON ARMENIA-TURKEY BORDER
OPENING MORE ABOUT COVER THAN FACTS

Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) A loosely translated May 12 statement by Armenian
Prime Minister Andranik Markaryan regarding the possible
opening of the Armenia-Turkey border by the end of the year
sparked speculation in Yerevan about potential developments
in the bilateral relationship. The statement, which appears
totally disconnected from any developments or political
reality, is likely an attempt by Markaryan to temper earlier,
more aggressive statements he made regarding Turkey during
May 9 commemoration events. MFA contacts told Post May 13
that they were surprised by Markaryan's comments and, while
always hopeful for a breakthrough on the border issue, they
unfortunately had no news to report on the subject. End
Summary.

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MARKARYAN MAKES PREDICTIONS, SPARKS SPECULATION
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2. (C) During a May 12 press conference marking his fifth
year in office as Prime Minister, Andranik Markaryan stated
that the GOAM and GOT would work to open the Armenia-Turkey
border "by the end of 2005." Loosely translated versions of
the statement were widely carried in the local media,
sparking speculation about a possible breakthrough or policy
shift on the issue. Markaryan predicted that an open border
with Turkey would not adversely affect local markets or
producers as some in Armenia fear. He reminded reporters of
similar fears that circulated before Armenia launched trade
relations with Iran and noted the already steady flow of
goods from Turkey that arrive in Armenia via Georgia.

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MFA: UNFORTUNATELY, NO NEWS
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3. (C) When questioned about Markaryan's statement, MFA
contacts told us May 13 that they were surprised by the
comments and confirmed that there was no substantial news to
report on the issue. (Note: We believe that we were in fact
the ones to first alert the MFA to the statement early May

13. While there has been a recent shift in MFA staff who
follow Turkish issues (septel),the Turkish Desk and Middle
East Affairs Department Chief are extremely well connected on
the policy scene and would have been aware of a significant
policy announcement well in advance. End Note.) The MFA
added that, while always hopeful for a breakthrough on the
border issue, they did not see any immediate change in sight,
especially given what appeared to be an impasse between
President Robert Kocharian and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan
on the issue of the GOT's proposal for a joint commission to
study the facts surrounding the events of 1914-15. In
addition, the MFA was not optimistic regarding a rumored
meeting between the two leaders in Warsaw May 16-17 during
the Council of Europe Summit.

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COMMENT
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4. (C) While still the major figure within the ranks of the
Republican Party and by no means reluctant to take a stand on
tough policy issues, Markaryan tends to shy away from
questions regarding foreign relations. This tendency makes
Markaryan's recent proclamations on Turkey even more
interesting. His May 12 statement, which appears totally
disconnected from any developments or political reality, is
likely an attempt to temper earlier, more aggressive
statements he made in both public and private settings
regarding Turkey during May 9 commemoration events. Such
assertions are not an unusual political talking points in
Yerevan (and are even the usual mantra for some parties
including the ARF Dashnak Party); these earlier statements by
the PM, however, were not in line with the GOAM's official
party line as expressed by Foreign Minister Oskanian. We
suspect, and our contacts confirm for now, that Markaryan was
instructed to clarify the GOAM stance on relations with
Turkey and in so doing may have over-delivered and somewhat
distorted expectations for the moment.
EVANS