SPIKE IN N-K CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS "SEASONAL"

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000451

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2015
TAGS: PARM PBTS PREL AJ AM
SUBJECT: SPIKE IN N-K CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS "SEASONAL"


Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The number of cease-fire violations along the line of
contact between ethnic Armenian and Azerbaijan forces in the
Nagorno-Karabakh region has increased dramatically since the
beginning of March. Although accusations of responsibility
and casualty figures vary according to the source of the
press reports, all confirm that there have been casualties --
including deaths -- on both sides of the line. While these
incidents are alarming, local experts, including the OSCE
Special Representative for N-K, assure us that they are a
seasonal occurrence. With weather conditions improving,
soldiers are moving about more and are reconnoitering
opposing positions. End Summary.


2. (C) General Mikael Melkonyan of the Ministry of Defense
confirmed Azeri press reports of up to seven cease-fire
violations between January 30 and March 6, and the Armenian
press reported cease-fire violations which occurred on March
7, 8, 9, and 10. The press reported gunfire across the line
of contact in the Agdam region of Azerbaijan during the March
incidents and stated there were several Azeri casualities.
The Armenian press has reported no ethnic Armenian
casualties, but General Melkonyan stated that one or two
solders were killed and two wounded on the Armenian side
March 7.


3. (SBU) Armenia's sensationalist press emphasized the
solidity of the Armenian defenses and stated that all
incidents had been provoked by Azerbaijan. There was even
some press speculation about whether the incidents are part
of an Azeri strategy to take strategic positions near the
line of contact. One editorial concluded that the Azeris
only sought to test the resolve of the Armenian defenders and
assured readers that the Armenians could stop and counter any
serious attack by Azerbaijan. The Government of the Republic
of Armenia has made no official statement on the incidents,
but statements by representatives of the so-called
"Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" have been broadly covered in the
Armenian press.


4. (C) On March 13, Andrzej Kasprzyk, the representative of
OSCE's Chairman in Office on N-K, told the Ambassador that
the increase in incidents on the line of contact is seasonal.
Each year when the weather improves, forces on both sides of
the line of contact probe opposing forces and the
unfortunate, but inevitable results are cease-fire violations.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) While the increase in reports of cease-fire violations
may be an annual occurrence, they are still cause for concern
and serve as a reminder of the potential volatility of this
long-dormant conflict.
EVANS