SPIKE IN N-K CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS "SEASONAL"

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000451 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2015 TAGS: PARM PBTS PREL AJ AM SUBJECT: SPIKE IN N-K CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS "SEASONAL" Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The number of cease-fire violations along the line of contact between ethnic Armenian and Azerbaijan forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region has increased dramatically since the beginning of March. Although accusations of responsibility and casualty figures vary according to the source of the press reports, all confirm that there have been casualties -- including deaths -- on both sides of the line. While these incidents are alarming, local experts, including the OSCE Special Representative for N-K, assure us that they are a seasonal occurrence. With weather conditions improving, soldiers are moving about more and are reconnoitering opposing positions. End Summary. ¶2. (C) General Mikael Melkonyan of the Ministry of Defense confirmed Azeri press reports of up to seven cease-fire violations between January 30 and March 6, and the Armenian press reported cease-fire violations which occurred on March 7, 8, 9, and 10. The press reported gunfire across the line of contact in the Agdam region of Azerbaijan during the March incidents and stated there were several Azeri casualities. The Armenian press has reported no ethnic Armenian casualties, but General Melkonyan stated that one or two solders were killed and two wounded on the Armenian side March 7. ¶3. (SBU) Armenia's sensationalist press emphasized the solidity of the Armenian defenses and stated that all incidents had been provoked by Azerbaijan. There was even some press speculation about whether the incidents are part of an Azeri strategy to take strategic positions near the line of contact. One editorial concluded that the Azeris only sought to test the resolve of the Armenian defenders and assured readers that the Armenians could stop and counter any serious attack by Azerbaijan. The Government of the Republic of Armenia has made no official statement on the incidents, but statements by representatives of the so-called "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" have been broadly covered in the Armenian press. ¶4. (C) On March 13, Andrzej Kasprzyk, the representative of OSCE's Chairman in Office on N-K, told the Ambassador that the increase in incidents on the line of contact is seasonal. Each year when the weather improves, forces on both sides of the line of contact probe opposing forces and the unfortunate, but inevitable results are cease-fire violations. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) While the increase in reports of cease-fire violations may be an annual occurrence, they are still cause for concern and serve as a reminder of the potential volatility of this long-dormant conflict. EVANS