RUSSIAN FM LAVROV: ARMENIA'S PLACE IS BY RUSSIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000287

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/SNEC, EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG AJ AM RU
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN FM LAVROV: ARMENIA'S PLACE IS BY RUSSIA'S
SIDE

REF: A) TBILISI 420 B) MOSCOW 1753

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Armenia and Russia are "old friends, reliable allies
and strategic partners" declared Russian FM Sergey Lavrov on
February 17. The GOAM and Russia broke no new ground during
the FM's high-profile visit to Yerevan February 16-17, but
used the occasion to cement their existing strong
relationship. Heading the list were Russia's security
concerns, including a hard push for Armenia to limit its
engagement with NATO, a confirmation of Russian and Armenian
military cooperation, and a request for GOAM support for
Russia's positions on international organization reforms,
especially in the CIS, OSCE and UN. Armenia sought Russian
commitments to improve regional economic and trade relations.
Lavrov underscored Russia's continued support for the OSCE
Minsk Group process to seek resolution of the conflict in
Nagorno-Karabakh. End Summary.

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ARMENIAN WELCOME A CONTRAST TO TBILISI
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2. (C) According to Senior Advisor to the Foreign Minister
Salpi Ghazarian (AmCit),Lavrov arrived in Yerevan still
smarting from Tbilisi's decision to downgrade his visit from
"official" to "working" (ref A). Claiming that Lavrov's
visit to Yerevan had originally been seen as the centerpiece
of his Caucasus trip, Ghazarian noted that the necessity to
add Baku to the trip and the Russian-Georgian tensions had
detracted from what had been expected to be a visit
essentially dedicated to highlighting close Armenian-Russian
cooperation. Underlining Lavrov's ties to Armenia (including
a previous visit to Yerevan in 1993 and an ethnic Armenian
father) and the close, friendly nature of the
Armenian-Russian relationship, Lavrov joined Foreign Minister
Oskanian at President Kocharian's favorite jazz club in
Yerevan, Poplavok (where Kocharian frequently takes VIP
visitors). Lavrov's official schedule included a meeting
with FM Oskanian, placing a wreath at the Genocide Memorial,
an official lunch hosted by FM Oskanian including members of
the National Assembly, a brief meeting with Prime Minister
Markarian, an official meeting with President Kocharian, a
joint presentation at the Russian-Armenian Slavonic
University, and closed with a brief press conference at the
MFA. Lavrov departed Yerevan after spending fewer than 24
hours on the ground.

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PUSH-BACK ON NATO ISSUES
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3. (C) According to Ghazarian, Lavrov pushed hard for Armenia
to limit its cooperation with NATO and western military
structures; Armenia needed to remember that its military
relationship with Russia was central to its security. FM
Oskanian reportedly responded that Armenia's growing
relationship with NATO does not endanger its close ties to
Russia, and that Armenia cannot let its neighbors, Georgia
and Azerbaijan, move toward closer engagement with NATO
without doing the same. Above all, Oskanian told Lavrov,
Armenia cannot allow itself to be isolated and become a
distant third in the race to integrate into western
structures. Lavrov was reportedly unsatisfied with this
response, and pressed for assurances that Russian-Armenian
basing agreements and military cooperation would continue
unchanged. According to both Ghazarian and Russian Embassy
officials, FM Oskanian and President Kocharian gave him those
assurances.


4. (C) Lavrov's visit was also designed to lay the groundwork
for President Putin's upcoming March 7 visit to Yerevan, and
Ghazarian noted that the GOAM expects that Putin will push
harder for Armenia to get in line more clearly behind Russia.


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CIS, OSCE, UN REFORM
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5. (C) In his meetings with Kocharian and Oskanian, Lavrov
reportedly asked for Armenia's support for Russia's proposed
reforms of the CIS and the OSCE. According to Ghazarian, the
changes to CIS structures would give Russia more influence in
the internal affairs of other CIS countries. She claimed
both Oskanian and Kocharian listened politely, but did not
agree to support changes that would limit Armenia's de facto
sovereignty. On OSCE reforms, however, the GOAM agrees with
Russia that changes are necessary to limit OSCE's ability to
"interfere" in the internal affairs of member nations, and
would like to see the OSCE take a more active role in
economic development issues and a much smaller one in human
rights issues and electoral monitoring. According to
Ghazarian, Lavrov secured the GOAM's commitment to continue
to support Russia's positions in the OSCE. Lavrov also told
Oskanian that Russia supports UN reform, including expanding
the security council, but only if a consensus can be reached
about precisely how that should be done -- a consensus that
Lavrov told Oskanian he did not expect would come about.

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CONTINUING RUSSIAN SUPPORT ON N-K
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6. (C) In private meetings and in press statements, Lavrov
made clear Russia's continued support for the OSCE Minsk
Group process in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and
pledged continued Russian support to block any attempt by
Azerbaijan to move potential conflict settlement into any
other arena, such as the UN. According to Ghazarian, there
were no substantive new issues discussed on N-K during
Lavrov's visit. Oskanian, in a press conference at the close
of the visit, joked that Lavrov probably knew more about the
Karabakh peace process than he did, and underlined Moscow's
key role as an international mediator.

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TRANSPORTATION, TRADE, ECONOMY
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7. (C) During meetings with both Prime Minister Andranik
Markarian and President Kocharian, GOAM officials raised
transportation issues central to land-locked Armenia.
Markarian expressed concern that a proposed railway link
between Russia and Iran would bypass Armenia and run through
Azerbaijan instead, increasing Armenia's isolation. The
press reported that Lavrov assured Markarian that Russia
would "take Armenia's interests into account" and not take
any steps that would damage them. Russian Embassy Political
Counselor Oleg Korobkov, however, stressed to us privately
that Lavrov "made no promises." Lavrov said that the GOR
continues to push to get the Kavkaz (Krasnodar Kray) - Poti
rail ferry link on track, and commented briefly on the GOR's
intention to consider opening the rail lines through
Abkhazia, noting that Russia's interests in the region hinged
on Armenia's continued access to Russian transportation
links.


8. (C) PM Markarian raised the issue of five factories in
Armenia which had been transferred to Russian ownership as
part of a debt-for-equity swap. Markarian complained that
the factories remain idle; part of the deal was that the new
owners were to get them working. Again, Lavrov made no
promises, but agreed to raise the matter with the appropriate
authorities.


9. (C) Lavrov told the press that Russia hailed Armenia's
development of economic relations with the Arab world and in
particular welcomed the deal to build a natural gas pipeline
from Iran to Armenia. Lavrov said that the "corresponding
Russian structures" might participate in the project and
hoped for a "definite reply" in the near future.

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COMMENT: RUSSIA NOT IN DANGER OF LOSING ARMENIA
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10. (C) The central message of Lavrov's brief visit to
Armenia was clear: Russia counts on Armenia to be its ally
in the Caucasus. Armenia recognizes its reliance -- even
dependence -- on Russia's continued support on security and
trade issues and will remain a loyal supporter of Russian
policies where it counts. Russia can rely on continued
Armenian support for its military presence and for the
majority of its positions in international fora such as the
OSCE. Armenia can count on Russia for its role as mediator
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Complementarity remains
the watchword of Armenian foreign policy, but when push comes
to shove, Russia remains Armenia's key ally.
GODFREY