PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER TUMANYAN TO FORM A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001707

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SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER TUMANYAN TO FORM A
POLITICAL PARTY?


(U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) As local politicians begin to gear up for the
2007-2008 elections in Armenia, the rumor that
President Robert Kocharian's Chief of Staff, Artashes
Tumanyan, may enter national politics with his own
party, is still big news. Tumanyan has been in
politics since 1990 and has been promoted to various
high-level posts throughout his career. He has kept a
relatively low profile over the past few years while
operating within the GOAM. His reputation and access
to key players in the political structure indicate,
however, that a party launched by Tumanyan could become
a strong one. Tumanyan appears to have President
Kocharian's support and a strong popular base in the
northern Lori region of Armenia. End Summary.

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WILL TUMANYAN FORM A NEW PARTY?
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2. (SBU) In mid-September, local newspapers carried
stories suggesting that the President's Chief of Staff,
Artashes Tumanyan, was planning to form a new political
party. Aravot, an opposition daily, claimed the party
was being formed at President Kocharian's request, who
hoped to use it to ensure that a majority of his allies
would be well positioned in the next parliament. In a
subsequent press conference, the President's Spokesman,
Viktor Soghomonyan, confirmed the rumors of the party's
establishment, but denied the President had any role in
it. Viktor Dallakyan, an opposition MP who shares
Tumanyan's Lori region base of support, said that
Tumanyan had discussed the idea of a party under
Tumanyan's leadership with him. According to the
Ministry of Justice, however, Tumanyan has not yet
registered his party; Tumanyan himself has not yet
commented publicly on the proposed party.

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TUMANYAN'S BID HAS BIG POTENTIAL
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3. (SBU) Amid constant rumors in recent months about
creation of new political parties (a party consisting
of the major oligarchs, a party backed by former
"Defense Minister" of Nagorno Karabagh, etc.) a bid by
Artashes Tumanyan stands out. Tumanyan, unlike these
other leaders, has maintained a low public profile and
insulated himself from political mud-slinging. At the
same time, he has managed to operate effectively across
party lines and, unlike other political actors in
Armenia, he does not have major enemies in the previous
administration. This, coupled with his apparent
pragmatism, suggests to some that he could potentially
be a strong political leader.

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COMMENT: POLITICAL ALIGNMENTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS
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4. (SBU) The upcoming 2008 presidential elections
promise big changes, as this is President Kocharian's
last term in office. We expect intense competition
during the 2007 Parliamentary elections as well, due to
the changes in the Electoral Code, which reduced the
number of single-mandate seats in the parliament from
56 to 41. In addition, the changes in the Law on
Political Parties have significantly increased the
number of members necessary to register a party, and we
expect this to lead to the consolidation and
realignment of political groups as well.

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BIO NOTES
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5. (SBU) Artashes Tumanyan was born November 16, 1949
in the Noyemberyan region (the northern-most region of
Armenia) to a family of civil servants. He graduated
from the Department of Technical Cybernetics of the
Yerevan State Polytechnic Institute in 1971 and later
earned his doctorate. Before entering political life
in 1990, he worked in Vanadzor first as lecturer and
then in construction. From 1990 to 1995 he was in the
Armenian Parliament, where from 1992 to 1995 he served
as the second Deputy Speaker. In 1995 he was elected
to a second term. In 1997 he relinquished his seat in
Parliament to lead the Armenian Tax Service, where he
served until 1998. From 1999 to 2000 he was a Deputy
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia. From 2000 to
the present he has worked as the President's Chief of
Staff.
GODFREY