ARMENIA: PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON CONSTITUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001566

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON CONSTITUTION
PROVES LONG ROAD AHEAD

REF: (A) YEREVAN 1352 (B) YEREVAN 1290

Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On August 29, the Armenian National Assembly opened a
highly-anticipated extraordinary session to debate the GOAM's
proposed package of constitutional amendments (reftels). The
debate lacked the substantive discussion we (and European
observers) hoped would prevail. At times, the discussion
degraded into a forum for the participating opposition
members to criticize the Kocharian Administration and
reprimand the National Assembly leadership for what they
perceived as procedural irregularities in the proceedings.
National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan, who departs
August 30 for a Voluntary Study Program in the U.S., will
likely move to wrap-up debate before his departure. Despite
opposition sniping, the current draft of amendments will
likely pass this second reading (septel) and move to a
referendum in November. End Summary.

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BIGGEST DAY IN MONTHS FOR THE PARLIAMENT
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2. (C) On August 29, the Armenian National Assembly (NA)
opened the highly-anticipated extraordinary session to debate
the GOAM's proposed package of constitutional amendments (ref
A). Not since the public hearings on Nagorno-Karabakh
earlier this year have Armenia's public, press and political
elite focused so much attention on the National Assembly.
The governing coalition (represented by Parliament Speaker
Artur Baghdasaryan and Deputy Speakers Vahan Hovanisian and
Tigran Torossian) led the second reading of the amendments
package. A total of 110 of the current 131 MPs participated
in the session. (Note: As of 1830 local time, the National
Assembly was still in session. End Note.)

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OPPOSITION SHOWS UP -- FOR THE CAMERAS OR FOR THE CONTENT?
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3. (C) At times, the discussion degraded into a forum for
attending opposition members to criticize the Kocharian
Administration and reprimand the National Assembly leadership
for what they perceived as procedural irregularities in the
proceedings. A handful of opposition leaders participated in
the session. Republic Party leader Aram Sarkissian (one of
the most outspoken critics of the process) did not attend.
Demirchian did not actually appear in Parliament, but is
reportedly watching the proceedings from his office there.


4. (C) Justice Bloc deputy Victor Dalakian attempted to
de-rail the session altogether. He claimed that
irregularities in the punctuation of the draft amendments
could call into question whether the deliberations were over
whether to amend the previous constitution or adopt a totally
new document (which could, according to his analysis, allow
President Kocharian to run for a consecutive third term).
Coalition representatives, including Deputy Speaker Tigran
Torossian, were quick to dismiss Dalakian's accusations.
Others, including NA Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan, chastised
opposition MPs both publicly and in private for attempting to
thwart dialogue and take advantage of the strong media
presence to advance their anti-Kocharian agenda.

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FAIT ACCOMPLI OR FAIR ATTEMPT?
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5. (C) Presidential Senior Advisor Armen Harutounyan told us
on the margins of the session that the final decision over
the constitution had "already been made days ago" and
suggested that the proceedings were little more than a
formality. He said that the President had dispatched him to
the hearings in case there was a need for a speech supporting
the amendments. Orinats Yerkir MP Mher Shaghelian painted a
different picture of the discussions, trying hard to convince
the MPs (and media) present that the hearings were evidence
of a fair, open dialogue on the amendments package.

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COMMENTS: IT'S TIME TO PLAY NICE
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6. (C) While it is likely that the current draft of
amendments will pass this second reading and move to a
referendum in November, the August 29 hearings confirmed our
concerns that the Armenian political elite -- both in the
governing coalition and opposition -- is not yet giving this
issue the mature discussion that it merits. Despite the
challenges, we believe strong USG support for a transparent
process that preserves the intent of the Venice Commission
revisions will aid efforts to bring the amendments to
referendum, though public complacency and unrealistically
high voting thresholds for the referendum remain a problem.
During the August 29 session, both deputy speakers thanked
Emboff for the USG's public calls for substantive discussion.
They were particularly enthusiastic about Secretary Rice's
August 25 telephone call to President Kocharian and the
Ambassador's August 27 op-ed.
EVANS