NAGORNO KARABAKH'S UPCOMING "PARLIAMENTARY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001053

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: NAGORNO KARABAKH'S UPCOMING "PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS"


(U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) On June 19 Nagorno Karabakh (N-K) will hold
its fourth "parliamentary elections." Eight parties
(two of which united in a bloc) and independent
candidates will contest the 22 majoritarian and 11
party list seats of the "parliament." The parties with
the most active election campaigns and with the best
chances to be elected, are the opposition bloc of the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) Dashnaks and
Movement-88, the Democratic Party of Artsakh (DPA) --
the current party of power in N-K, and a newly formed
Free Homeland Party (also referred to as Free Artsakh).
According to media reports the other nominal
contestants essentially are not participating in the
election campaign. The ARF (a partner in Armenia's
governing coalition) split away from N-K "president"
Arkadi Ghukasyan last year, successfully supporting the
leader of Movement-88 to win the recent election for
Stepanakert's mayor. End Summary.

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BACKGROUND
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2. (SBU) The current legislature consists of a DPA
faction with 19 members, an ARF faction with 8 members,
and 6 independent deputies. The 2005 elections will
be conducted according to N-K's new Electoral Code,
adopted in December 2004, which changed the composition
of the body; now there will be 22 majoritarian and 11
party list seats in the legislature. According to the
head of the N-K Central Electoral Commission Sergey
Nasibyan there are about 89,000 voters registered in N-
K, who will vote in 275 precincts of the 22 electoral
districts. One of those precincts will be in Armenia,
in the offices of the local N-K representation, where N-
K "citizens" living in Armenia will be able to vote.
According to press reports, people living in the
Lachine and Kelbajar regions of Azerbaijan will also
take part in the vote.

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THE CONTESTANTS
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3. (SBU) The parties that will take part in the
elections are:

-- Bloc of ARF and Movement-88 parties;
-- Democratic Party of Artsakh;
-- Free Homeland Party;
-- Moral Rebirth Party;
-- Social Justice Party;
-- Our Home is Armenia Party; and
-- Communist Party of Artsakh.

-- The ARF is a very strong player in N-K. Until 2004
it was pro-Ghukasyan, supporting him in the 1997 and
2002 "presidential elections." During the 2004
election of Local Self Government bodies, ARF supported
the leader of the opposition Movement-88 party Edik
Aghabekyan, who was elected Stepanakert's Mayor. In
press reports, the ARF explained breaking ties with
Ghukasyan by noting that Ghukasyan did not punish an N-
K general who had discussed the possibility of
returning the occupied territories to Azerbaijan.
Shortly after the mayor's election, Ghukasyan re-
shuffled some posts, and dismissed the ARF "Minister"
of Education, Culture and Sports, Armen Sargsyan,
whereupon the ARF recalled all of its members from N-K
governmental posts, and expelled those who did not
comply from the party. During the 2004 local elections
the ARF had won in roughly 50 villages and communities.
The ARF's hard-line position on a possible resolution
of the N-K conflict is one of the party's key issues.
According to Grisha Hayrapetyan, the representative
from the Artsakh ARF Central Committee, no concessions
are possible in resolving the conflict.

-- Movement-88 was created in February 2004 and is led
by the Mayor of Stepanakert Edik Aghabekyan. Gegham
Baghdasaryan, the number two in the party, claims that
they do not want to get rid of Ghukasyan, but instead
want the legislature to balance his authority. In
reference to the solution of the N-K conflict,
Aghabekyan claims that first Yerevan-Stepanakert
relations should be clarified, as Stepanakert cannot be
Yerevan's annex. Movement-88's goal is the complete
independence of N-K and members note that that would be
impossible without concessions; entertaining the
possibility of returning the occupied territories,
except for Lachine and Kelbajar.

-- The Democratic Party of Artsakh (DPA) was created in
2000 and is the party of power in N-K. It is strictly
pro-government; its members are mostly "ministers" and
other officials. In the current legislature they hold
19 seats. The DPA considers the N-K issue "already
solved;" placing priority on the recognition of N-K.

-- The Free Homeland Party was created in January 2005,
and its co-presidents are Rudik Hiusnunts, the head of
"Armenian Church-Loving Brotherhood," Araik
Hayrapetyanm, owner of "Gharabagh Gold" Company, Artur
Tovmasyan, former chairman of the NK Parliament, and
Arpat Avanesyan, chair of the Physics department of
Artsakh University. Some newspapers have reported that
this is a pro-governmental party, and note the party's
oligarchic ties. The Free Homeland Party calls for
retaining the current territorial status quo in any
possible solution to N-K.
EVANS