POLISH MILITARY PREPARES TO REMAIN IN IRAQ, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 003825

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015
TAGS: PREL MARR MASS PL
SUBJECT: POLISH MILITARY PREPARES TO REMAIN IN IRAQ, BUT
AWAITS POLITICAL DECISION

REF: WARSAW 3794

Classified By: Polcouns Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. During the November 8-9 Force Generation
Conference in Warsaw for the sixth rotation of the
Multinational Division Center-South (MND-CS) in Iraq, the
Chief of Strategic Planning for the Polish General Staff
outlined plans for a continued, albeit reduced Polish
presence in Iraq. However, newly named DefMin Sikorski
cautioned that all Polish offers made during the conference
were "provisional" pending a political decision from the new
government. Bulgaria, Lithuania, Mongolia and Romania also
signaled draw downs. Throughout the conference, the Poles
underscored their eagerness to change the mission from
stabilization and training to advisory and training. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) During the conference, Chief of Strategic Planning
Colonel Leszek Soczewica reported that Poland had made
provision for sending 1,000 troops to Iraq for the sixth
rotation, a decrease from the current level of 1,454 troops.
Soczewica noted that Polish troop strength would ultimately
depend on allied troop contributions, as Poland might be able
to add troops to compensate for reductions by other nations.
In a November 8 meeting with Ambassador Ashe, DefMin Sikorski
cautioned that all Polish offers made during the conference
were "provisional," as the new government had not yet at that
time been confirmed and so could not take any political
decisions on future Polish deployments in Iraq.


3. (C) Ukraine reminded attendees that its government had
already decided to withdraw almost completely by December 31,

2005. Bulgaria and Mongolia warned that they still needed
government approval to participate in the sixth rotation.
Romania and Lithuania also forecast reductions in their
contingents. A summary of current and projected troop totals
for the 13 nations participating in the MND-CS follows.


Nation Now Plan for 2006

Armenia 45 46
Bulgaria 378 0 (GOB decision pending)
Denmark 5 5
El Salvador 380 380
Kazakhstan 28 28
Latvia 135 135
Lithuania 54 10
Mongolia 130 0 (GOM decision pending)
Poland 1454 1000
Romania 218 150
Slovakia 103 103
Ukraine 889 13
USA 17 17


4. (C) Soczewica reiterated Poland's oft-expressed intent to
transition as soon as possible from a stabilization mission
to a training and advisory mission. From the outset, the
conference focused heavily on generating commitments to
Military Transition Teams (33 person groups) at the division,
brigade and battalion level to facilitate this transition.
In Soczewica's opinion this new mission would reduce the
allied profile in Iraq by transferring more security
responsibilities to the Iraqis themselves.

--------------
Allies Lowballing
--------------


5. (C) COMMENT: The General Staff (and former DefMin
Szmajdzinski) had previously told us that the current Polish
defense budget for 2006 could support as many as 1,000 troops
in Iraq. Soczewica softened the blow of publicly stating the
reduced troop figure by mentioning Poland's readiness to
backfill for the draw downs of other allies. If Poland were
to maintain its current troop level of 1,454, that would
nearly cover the projected loss of Bulgarians, Lithuanians
and Romanians. Unfortunately, there are not enough Polish or
other MND-CS TCN troops available at present to make up for
the withdrawal of over 800 Ukrainians.


6. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Now that the government has won the
November 10 vote of confidence, it will need to make a
political decision about remaining in Iraq. As reported in
reftel, DefMin Sikorski sees his November 30 visit to
Washington playing into that decision. END COMMENT.
HILLAS