FINAL ELECTION RESULTS ANNOUNCED IN POLAND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003477 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PL SUBJECT: FINAL ELECTION RESULTS ANNOUNCED IN POLAND REF: A. WARSAW 2465 ¶B. WARSAW 3456 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The final results of Polish parliamentary elections confirmed a narrow first-place finish for the center-right Law and Justice (PiS),followed by its anticipated coalition partner, the Civic Platform (PO). The latest forecasts for parliamentary seat distribution indicate that PiS and PO will have a comfortable working majority, but short of the necessary two-thirds required to amend the Polish constitution. Analyses of PiS's victory over PO highlight the impact of traditional LPR supporters voting for PiS, with the open encouragement of arch-conservative Radio Maryja. PiS was also successful in labeling the PO's economic program as "dangerous liberalism." PO may have suffered by identifying itself too closely as the party of educated and urban Poles. Attention now shifts to the first round of presidential elections (October 9) and the horse-trading over the composition of the anticipated PiS-PO coalition government. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The Polish State Electoral Commission announced early September 27 the final results of Poland's September 25 parliamentary elections. The final tallies confirm PiS winning with 26.99 percent of the vote, followed by PO at 24.14 percent. Third place went to the populist Self-Defense, with 11.41 percent. The governing SLD beat expectations, receiving 11.31 percent of the vote. The right-wing League of Polish Families (LPR),meanwhile, performed well below expectations, at just 7.97 percent. (LPR leader Roman Giertych won his seat by the thinnest of margins.) The remaining party of the six that will enter parliament, the Peasants' Party (PSL),finished at 6.96 percent. The latest forecasts for seat distribution, based on ninety percent of the votes tallied, show PiS and PO with 152 and 133 seats, respectively, far more than the 231 needed for a majority. The final seat allocation will be released by the State Electoral Commission later September 27. ¶3. (SBU) Voter turnout was a meager 40.17 percent, an all-time low for post-communist Poland, and a reflection of voter apathy. Some Poles complained to poloffs that they did not see any real difference between PiS and PO, which dominated the final months of the campaign. Others indicate that they switched from PO to PiS in the final days, responding to PiS attacks that PO's economic program was "dangerous" and "liberal" (in the economic sense, here reminiscent of "shock therapy" and suggesting a willingness to abandon the social net for the economically down-trodden). One Pole who switched from PO to PiS told poloff that PO's flat-tax proposal would harm average Poles by raising VAT taxes on currently subsidized programs like health care and child care benefiting the wealthy at the expense of the middle class. Another factor benefiting PiS was the support it received from arch-conservative Radio Maryja, which urged its listeners to support PiS (as opposed to their usual party, LPR) in order to "sink PO." For its part, PO was ineffective in countering the PiS charges. ¶4. (SBU) PO officials throughout Poland repeatedly told poloffs that they expected to place first because they enjoyed the support of "virtually all educated Poles." This smug expectation clearly fell flat with some Poles who chafed at PO's arrogance. So far this label does not seem to have hurt PO's front-running presidential candidate, Donald Tusk, who continues to enjoy a double-digit lead over his PiS rival, Lech Kaczynski. Billboards throughout the country show the smiling PO candidate labeled as "President Tusk." Before the parliamentary elections, PO spoke hopefully of a first-round win for Tusk. Sobered by their second-place finish, most in PO now expect Tusk to ultimately prevail, but only in a second-round face off with Kaczynski on October 23. Tusk opened an aggressive campaign Monday, playing off perceived public concern about the prospect of the twin Kaczynski brothers serving as both Prime Minister and President. Red States - Blue States -------------- ¶5. (U) PiS prevailed in two-thirds of Poland's provinces, including Warsaw and the traditionally poorer areas in northern, eastern and southern Poland. PiS's strongest showing was in the province surrounding conservative Krakow, where it received 37 percent of the vote. PO won in five provinces, predominantly in the wealthier western regions of Poland, and capturing fully 40 percent of the vote in PO-stronghold, Gdansk. The extremist Self Defense, which placed third overall, came in first in three largely rural provinces, but did not in the end have the hidden well of support that some feared, and polled at about the rate predicted by opinion surveys. Voter turnout, while disappointing overall, was notably higher in cities than in rural areas. ¶6. (SBU) While pundits agree that PiS was successful in outperforming PO by attacking its rival's liberal economic policies, and while the two parties will face each other again in the presidential campaign, there remains no question that they are committed to forming a strong ruling coalition, with ministries divided roughly along the same lines as speculated for a PO-led coalition. Both parties are deeply committed to a strong bilateral relationship with the United States. PiS's Lech Kaczynski yesterday said there was "no strict deadline" for withdrawing Polish troops from Iraq. PO's Donald Tusk was more cautious, calling for "serious talks" with the United States with respect to Poland's role in Iraq. While PiS has scheduled a 6:00 p.m. press conference, reportedly to announce its candidate for Prime Minister, it is still likely that there will not be a government in place until after presidential elections. Ashe