POLISH RIGHT VICTORIOUS IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003465 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PL SUBJECT: POLISH RIGHT VICTORIOUS IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION REF: A. WARSAW 3456 ¶B. WARSAW 3360 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Preliminary results and exit polling from Poland's September 25 parliamentary elections indicate a convincing victory for the center-right Law and Justice (PiS) and Civic Platform (PO),who are expected to begin formal coalition negotiations as early as September 27. PiS's narrow margin over PO means that PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski will be prime minister, with the deputy premiership, the parliamentary speakership, and roughly half of the ministerial positions (including, most likely, foreign affairs, defense and finance) going to PO. Together, PiS and PO can expect a comfortable majority in parliament, although they will probably fall short of a two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution. The governing SLD performed better than expected, taking fourth place behind the populist Self-Defense and ahead of the right-wing LPR and the Peasants' Party (PSL). PiS leaders have so far been subdued and magnanimous in their apparent victory (final results will be released mid-day September 27),while PO officials have reacted variously, with would-be PM Jan Rokita evincing calm and conciliation and others reacting more bitterly. Both camps will approach coalition negotiations with the presidential race in mind (the first-round vote is October 9); on election night, Kaczynski repeated his pledge to refuse the prime minister post if his twin brother Lech is elected president. End summary. ¶2. (U) With sixty percent of the vote tabulated, preliminary results released early September 26 show PiS winning 26.56 percent, PO 24.08 percent, Self-Defense 12.44 percent, SLD 10.94 percent, LPR 7.83 percent, and PSL 7.11 percent. These figures correspond roughly with most exit polls, but of course can be expected to change somewhat as additional returns are counted. The State Electoral Commission projects that the above results would yield 151 parliamentary seats for PiS and 123 for PO, giving a PiS-PO coalition about forty more seats than the 231 it needs for a majority (but short of the 307 for a two-thirds majority to amend the constitution). The actual allocation of seats could vary considerably from this projection, however, depending on the final results to be released September 27. Voter turnout was estimated at below 40 percent (a post-1989 record low for parliamentary elections),reflecting widespread public disillusionment with politics here. ¶3. (SBU) Speaking on election night, Jaroslaw Kaczynski had many kind words to say about his prospective coalition partner and about Rokita in particular. Kaczynski declared that he will serve as prime minister, and that PO will get exactly the same deal PiS would have gotten had PO taken first place: the deputy PM, parliamentary speaker and half of the cabinet posts. The PiS leader indicated that he could not imagine a government without Rokita, whom he suggested should serve as both deputy PM and foreign minister. PiS will want two economic ministries, he said, along with the interior, justice, agriculture and environment ministries. Although Kaczynski was not explicit (except for his remark about Rokita as foreign minister),it is widely assumed that the MFA and defense ministries will go to PO, and that PO will fight to secure the finance ministry. If so, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski remains a prime candidate for the MFA, while Bronislaw Komorowski is the only obvious PO choice for defense (although his sharp rhetoric could make him unacceptable to PiS). ¶4. (SBU) For his part, Rokita was gracious in defeat, recognizing PiS's right to take the PM spot and hold the initiative in forming a new government. Although evidently disappointed with the results, he spoke with optimism about the prospects for the coalition. Other PO officials, notably Komorowski and Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, were less charitable, evincing some bitterness at PiS and suggesting that the Kaczynskis should look at coalition partners among the protest parties (e.g. Self-Defense and LPR) if they couldn't work things out with PO. Presidential candidate Donald Tusk (PO) was more even-handed, attempting to sound reassuring while at the same time raising doubts about the PiS program. ¶5. (SBU) Polish President Kwasniewski announced that he will invite PO and PiS to begin formal coalition talks September 27, following announcement of the final results. Personnel decisions aside, negotiations between PO and PiS on a government program are bound to be difficult, especially given the parties' divergent positions on economic policy. The most significant factor affecting the pace of coalition talks, however, could be the upcoming presidential elections, which pit Lech Kaczynski against the front-running Tusk. Neither party has an interest in papering over differences between them with the presidential race in the balance; indeed, Jaroslaw Kaczynski indicated that he thought it unlikely that the government could be finalized before the president is elected (either October 9 or in the second round October 23). According to the Polish constitution, the newly elected parliament must be seated by October 24, and the new government is usually named shortly thereafter (within two weeks, but as soon as possible) by the president. Recognizing voter apprehension about the possibility of identical twins serving simultaneously as head of state and government, Jaroslaw Kaczynski repeated his pledge to step aside for another PiS candidate if Lech is elected president. Ashe