POLISH PARLIAMENTARY RACE TIGHTENS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003427 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PL SUBJECT: POLISH PARLIAMENTARY RACE TIGHTENS REF: A. WARSAW 3393 ¶B. WARSAW 3360 Classified By: Political Counselor Mary Curtin, 1.4b,d ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With just days to go before September 25 Polish parliamentary elections, latest opinion polls indicate a tightening race between the front-running Civic Platform (PO) and its likely coalition partner, the center-right Law and Justice (PiS). In contrast to the inconclusive election results in neighboring Germany this weekend, however, there seems no question that these two parties will form the next Polish government. Our visits to regions throughout Poland suggest that PO and PiS should do well even in rural areas and other traditional left-wing strongholds. PO presidential candidate Donald Tusk is holding on to a strong lead over his principal rival, PiS's Lech Kaczynski, as negotiations remain underway to hold a televised debate between them, perhaps even as early as September 23 -- an encounter that could, if it takes place before the weekend, sway voters wavering between the two center-right parties. End summary. Close race between likely coalition partners -------------- ¶2. (U) Latest polling data show that the race between PO and PiS is narrowing in the final week of the campaign, with PO's support in the 32-35 percent range, and PiS polling between 27 and 30 percent. One telephone poll conducted September 20 even gave a slight edge to PiS, showing the party leading PO 34 to 32 percent. The populist Self-Defense (SO) remains well behind at 10-12 percent, the right-wing League of Polish Families (LPR) at or below 10 percent and the governing SLD a few points below LPR. In the presidential race, Tusk is maintaining a double-digit lead over Kaczynski, 44-49 percent versus 29-30 percent. With Cimoszewicz's withdrawal from the presidential race on September 14, the remaining center-left candidate, SdPl candidate Marek Borowski, has failed to pick up support from erstwhile Cimoszewicz supporters. Some Embassy interlocutors suggest that many SLD voters will simply sit out the election. PO and PiS playing well throughout Poland -------------- ¶3. (C) Embassy Poloffs have fanned out over Poland in the past week to review the parliamentary and presidential campaigns in Bydgoszcz, Lodz, Lublin, and Szczecin, and found that support for PO and PiS appears strong in those regions as well, some of them traditionally "red," or favoring the postcommunist left. In Lublin, long a stronghold of the Polish Peasants' Party (PSL),and more recently of SO and LPR, Polcouns heard most regional officials predict success this round for PO (particularly in Lublin itself) and for PiS. Elzbieta Kruk, who heads the PiS list for Lublin, reported that her party had an aggressive strategy to seek votes in the rural areas, including recruiting candidates from farm areas and addressing agricultural issues, while noting that PO has focused its campaign on urban voters. Lublin Archbishop Jozef Zycinski and Janusz Knap, Lublin's editor for the national daily, "Gazeta Wyborcza," cautioned, however, that SO and LPR will likely do better in the region (and perhaps nationally) than opinion polls indicate. ¶4. (C) In Lodz, however, both Iwona Sledzinska-Katarasinska, who heads the PO list, and Piotr Krzywicki, who heads the PiS list, told Poloff that SO has lost some of its appeal with rural voters because party leader Andrzej Lepper crafted SO's electoral lists to stack them with his well-heeled cronies and party financiers, leaving traditional party constituents in the cold. PO and PiS expect to come in first and second in Lodz, Poland's second-largest city, as well. Both candidates pointed to high unemployment as the preeminent campaign issue, though PO's focus was on attracting foreign investment, and, with it, skilled jobs, whereas PiS merely offered a litany of economic woes that befell the Lodz region when its-once famous textile mills collapsed. In Bydgoszcz, another longtime postcommunist stronghold, local officials were also predicting a strong PO and PiS showing. PiS senatorial candidate Radek Sikorski told Poloff that "people who say Bydgoszcz is red haven't been out campaigning, and haven't seen the reaction I've been seeing." ¶5. (SBU) Campaign officials in Szczecin, near the German border, equally predict a strong showing for PO and PiS, although the popular Economy Minister, Jacek Piechota, who is widely credited with saving the local shipyard, is running on the SLD ticket. SLD may edge out PiS for second place in the city. SO standard-bearer Lepper is running from rural Koszalin, outside of Szczecin, boosting his party's chances in the surrounding countryside. As elsewhere, unemployment is the biggest issue, with unemployment rates running as high as 40% in regions where collective farming was widely practiced. ¶6. (SBU) The PO and PiS campaigns have nearly overwhelmed their competitors in terms of posters, banners and street campaigners, particularly in the urban centers. Despite having the most money to spend (in government subsidies based on its 2001 results),the SLD has mounted a modest effort so far. LPR, for its part, has focused most of its resources and advertising in support of the party's parliamentary campaign (promoting LPR leader Roman Giertych at the expense of his father, presidential candidate Maciej),hoping for a second-place finish that will generate momentum for the elder Giertych's campaign. LPR is also the only party to host traditional political rallies, featuring legions of fawning and uncritical LPR supporters. PO and PiS repeatedly told poloffs that such tactics remind most Poles of Communist-era political gatherings, and thus fall flat with the average voter. In the regions, the predominant campaign materials are billboards and leaflets, with few candidates marshalling the funds for television or radio commercials. Kaczynski attacks, Tusk parries before possible TV debate -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Down in the polls (although with Tusk's rise arrested for now just shy of the 50-percent mark needed to win in the first round),Lech Kaczynski has taken the offensive, attacking PO's liberal economic policies as socially destructive. This line was advanced by Kaczynski's twin brother, party leader Jaroslaw, in a radio exchange September 19 with PO PM-candidate Jan Rokita, in which Kaczynski declared that PO's flat tax proposals would bring Poland toward Third World levels of income distribution (Rokita dismissed the charge as "complete nonsense"). For his part, Tusk has maintained a careful response, seeking to reassure voters of his presidential temperament and avoid being drawn into a harsh exchange that could poison the coalition. ¶8. (SBU) Challenged by Lech Kaczynski to hold a nationally televised debate before Sunday's parliamentary vote, Tusk at first demurred, but then agreed to meet September 23. Other parties immediately lodged equal-time complaints with the State Electoral Commission, however, casting into doubt whether the debate will be held in that one-on-one format or before this weekend's vote. If it does take place this week, such an exchange is certain to highlight the contrasts between the two candidates and their parties' platforms, and could well prove decisive in determining which of the two parties will emerge in first place in the vote for parliament. Ashe