POLISH PM BELKA AND HIS PARTY AT ODDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001522

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PL
SUBJECT: POLISH PM BELKA AND HIS PARTY AT ODDS

REF: A. WARSAW 1358


B. WARSAW 1126

Classified By: CDA Cameron Munter. Reasons: 1.5 (B) and (D).


1. (U) A March 16 meeting between PM Marek Belka and the
leadership of the governing Democratic Left Alliance (SLD),
ended with disagreement over Belka's plan to resign this
spring and the leadership's announced desire for fall
elections. Belka stuck to his position that he will resign
on May 5, when the Polish lower house is set to vote on a
motion to dissolve the parliament; he wants elections to take
place in June.


2. (U) SLD leaders had previously stated at a March 12
meeting that elections should take place at the end of
September, and that they would not support the May 5
resolution, meaning that it will fail. SLD party chairman
Jozef Oleksy and his rival Krzysztof Janik (who until
recently supported elections in June),argued that Belka
should wait to resign until after the Council of Europe
summit on May 16 in Warsaw so as not to embarrass Poland, but
Belka refused to budge. Following the meeting, SLD Deputy
Chairperson MP Katarzyna Piekarska told the press that the
relationship between the SLD and Belka's government amounts
to "a marriage in separation."


3. (SBU) Belka and the SLD leadership reportedly also clashed
over a replacement for Deputy PM Jerzy Hausner, who submitted
his resignation on March 8 (Ref A). Belka has yet to act on
this matter. Belka's likely decision to join the fledgling
Democratic Party (PD) (Ref B),also drew flack from the SLD
leadership.


4. (SBU) Although Belka seems determined to resign on May 5,
President Kwasniewski has indicated that he will not accept
Belka's resignation. It would appear that Belka would then
be forced to continue to serve. (NOTE: it is not clear what
would happen if Belka, in response, refused to work, or as
one commentator remarked, "went on an extended vacation to
the Spanish beaches." However, given Belka's ties to
Kwasniewski and sense of responsibility, this variant is
unlikely. END NOTE). A member of the opposition Law and
Justice (PiS) party told us he expects fall elections unless
there is some immediate collapse of the SLD.


5. (C) COMMENT. The public airing of the conflict between
Belka and the SLD leadership is an indication of just how
fractured the once unified SLD has become. It has followed
in the footsteps of its predecessor in power, the once mighty
Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS),which four years ago
underwent a similar process of self-immolation. The only
issue on which the SLD now seems unified is the September
election date.
Munter


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2005WARSAW01522 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL