POLISH PREMIER WEIGHS JOINING NEW PARTY, PREDICTS

UNCLAS WARSAW 001126 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PL SUBJECT: POLISH PREMIER WEIGHS JOINING NEW PARTY, PREDICTS JUNE ELECTIONS -- STATEMENT POSSIBLE MARCH 3 REF: WARSAW 1081 ¶1. (SBU) In an interview published March 2, Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka signaled that he is considering an offer to join a new, centrist political party (the "Democratic Party," or PD) being formed by the liberal Freedom Union (UW),disaffected politicians from the governing SLD, and other centrists. Belka suggested that he is leaning toward such a decision, which he allowed would add to a "domino effect" already underway that could alter Poland's political landscape in advance of upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. Belka reiterated his determination to hold parliamentary elections in June, in defiance of his (nominal) party's leadership, whom he characterized as pursuing a strategy of "waiting for death." Belka indicated that he would prefer to avoid forcing early elections through resignation (with no majority support in parliament for him or any other potential PM candidate, Belka's resignation would set in motion futile rounds of voting that would ultimately trigger new elections),although this is clearly an option should the parliament not agree to dissolve itself at a scheduled May 5 vote. ¶2. (SBU) Belka stated that he will give himself six weeks to make a decision (precisely the time PD founders have allowed themselves to launch their new party),but already pressure is building on him to clarify his position, with SLD leader Jozef Oleksy insisting publicly on a clear "yes" or "no" from the prime minister. Belka is widely expected to address his plans at a speaking event March 3 (his spokesman announced that Belka will make "an important political announcement" at that forum),but the prime minister remains characteristically cautious, and he is not likely to make any definitive pronouncements before he feels he needs to do so. With others in the SLD poised to break ranks as well (Belka all but predicted that Parliamentary Speaker Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz will form yet another leftist formation, perhaps in collaboration with the SLD-breakaway SdPl) and SLD members determined to hang on to their seats for as long as possible, the SLD may not wish to press the issue if Belka decides to bide his time. ¶3. (SBU) Comment: Belka will almost certainly leave the SLD, and, with his implied threat of resignation, prospects for June parliamentary elections are now much stronger. What remains less certain is the eventual appeal (or even feasibility) of a union of liberals and disgruntled social democrats, to what degree Belka will associate himself with that party, and how these new formations (e.g., the PD, a new leftist group, and possibly even a new, far-right Catholic party) will affect the outcome of parliamentary elections, if significantly at all. From Belka's perspective, disassociating himself from the SLD and keeping his options open make good political sense, particularly if -- as is assumed -- he harbors presidential ambitions. ASHE