SU-27: THREE ACTION REQUESTS

S E C R E T VILNIUS 000993 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS MOPS LH NATO RU SUBJECT: SU-27: THREE ACTION REQUESTS REF: A. VILNIUS 977 ¶B. NOLL-MULL/KELLY EMAIL 9/20/05 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen D. Mull for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is an action request for Washington agencies -- see paras 6, 8 and 12 -- and USNATO -- see para 12. ¶2. (S/NF) Summary: Several loose ends remain from last Friday's crash of a Russian Su-27 (ref a) in Lithuania. Senior Lithuanian officials believe that inconsistencies in Russian accounts of the incident could indicate the plane purposely violated Lithuanian airspace as part of a provocation to undermine public confidence in NATO - and attacks on NATO have already started, especially from one political party with suspected links to Russian interests. We request guidance on responding to the GOL's request for USG assistance in decoding the plane's black box and its offer to allow USG personnel to exploit wreckage from the Su-27. Additionally, we are concerned that a reported admonition from NATO Secretary-General de Hoop Scheffer to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Valionis to "keep NATO out of this" will fuel growing public concerns about NATO reliability at a critical time in Lithuania's budget debate on defense expenditures. On the eve of U.S. assumption of Baltic air policing duties, we urge U.S. support for NATO engagement with the Lithuanians on the issue both in Brussels and in our public line here. End Summary. Lithuanians: This is No Accident -------------- ¶3. (S) The Ambassador discussed the implications of the Su-27 crash with DefMin Kirkilas and Commander of the Armed Forces Tutkus September 20 and MFA Americas Department Director Jonas Paslauskas September 21. All three expressed the GOL's conviction that the incursion into Lithuanian airspace (if not the crash itself) was a premeditated provocation by Russia. Summarizing the Lithuanian case, they all noted that the pilot had disengaged his transponder, allowing the plane to evade detection; that Russians initially claimed that the plane was unarmed; that it contained no dangerous material; and that they would share their radar records of the Su-27's movements with the Lithuanians. Subsequently, the Lithuanians discovered that the plane was armed with four air-to-air missiles, and that it contained two kilograms of a radioactive material. Paslauskas noted that the Russians withdrew their offer to 
share the radar data and that the plane's pilot "changes his story every day." All three officials also expressed concern about what they described as provocative statements by senior Russian officials, including a purported quote by Defense Minister Ivanov that the pilot would receive a medal upon his return to Russia. (At COB September 21 Mission received a nonpaper from the GOL providing Lithuania's version of the events. We will transmit full text septel.) Black Boxes -------------- ¶4. (S) The GOL has requested USG assistance in reading the voice recordings and flight data on the black boxes they have recovered from the wreckage. The GOL does not have the technical capacity to read these devices. The Ambassador conveyed to GOL officials several USG concerns and questions that might circumscribe our involvement in this process, including assurances about the device's legal ownership and confirmation that Russia concur with U.S. review of the device (ref b). Additionally, we pointed out that France may have the necessary technical capabilities to assist in this effort. ¶5. (S) Paslauskas told the Ambassador that Lithuania continues to prefer that the USG decode the devices. If that is not possible, the GOL would like USG assistance in recruiting another NATO country to perform that task. Paslauskas said that he could not opine definitively on the legal status of the black box, but that the GOL believed that, because the crash took place on Lithuanian soil, it has the right to include it in its investigation of the crash. Paslauskas also said that the GOL had no objection to Russian observation of the device's decoding; in fact, it would strongly welcome Russian participation. ¶6. (S) Action Request: We request Washington's guidance on what advice, if any, we can provide to the GOL about how to decode the black box. Exploitation of the Plane -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) GOL Commander of the Armed Forces Tutkus, Minister Kirkilas, and Paslauskas have all told us in the past two days that the USG can exploit items of technical interest from the wreckage. This offer is separate and distinct from the request for assistance with the black box. The GOL is holding these items, including debris from the SU-27's four air-to-air missiles, at a secure location distant from the crash site. We have heard conflicting information from USG agencies about the usefulness of this material. This Mission stands ready to support USG entities that ma have interest in this offer. ¶8. (S/NF) Action Request: Please provide us with instructions on whether to tell the Lithuanians that the USG intends to examine this material. If the answer is affirmative, it would be useful for us to know information on when and how this examination will occur. NATO Dimension and Our Public Line -------------- ¶9. (U) The story continues to dominate Lithuanian headlines. The GOL, and to a slightly lesser extent this Mission, is besieged with press inquiries. So far, we have limited out public statements to the following: "This is a very serious incident. We are very glad there was no loss of life. It is too early to comment on this matter. We await the results of the investigation." The British Embassy has taken the same line. ¶10. (SBU) The incident also comes at a sensitive juncture in Lithuanian budget deliberations for next year, in which some parliamentarians argue that Lithuania's relatively large support for overseas operations with NATO and the U.S. in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere is going unrewarded. Local political opponents of Lithuania's NATO membership (generally opposed to Lithuania's involvement in NATO and Coalition operations) have already seized upon this incident as an opportunity to undermine public confidence in the Alliance's ability to ensure Lithuania's security. The incident has also brought to the fore Lithuanian neuroses about Russian motives and the West's commitment to its security. Lithuania's leading daily Lietovos Rtyas concluded its lead editorial this morning with the remark that "it might be now that we see if our NATO partners are really prepared to defend us." ¶11. (S) These concerns were compounded within the Lithuanian national security establishment by Foreign Minister Valionis's two conversations September 20 with NATO SYG De Hoop Scheffer. According to Paslauskas, the SYG told Valionis that Lithuania should "keep NATO out of this." De Hoop Scheffer's remark has caused deep consternation within the Lithuanian government, and seems at odds with reports we have received from U.S. military sources that NATO has tasked SHAPE to prepare a report analyzing NATO response to the incident. ¶12. (SBU) Action Request: Given the timing of this incident on the eve of U.S. assumption of Baltic air policing duties on October 1 and during the current sensitive discussion of Lithuania's budget commitments to NATO and U.S. operations, we strongly encourage U.S. support for NATO engagement with Lithuania on the issue. A press line from NATO that it is working with Lithuania in analyzing NATO air policing response to the incident (as evidenced in the tasking to SHAPE),and will take any necessary follow-up measures in assuring continued effective air policing coverage, would go far in quelling the growing public controversy that, left unchecked, could begin to negatively affect U.S. interests here. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Lithuania has been unflinchingly supportive of U.S. interests, agreeing to almost any mission we ask of it. Confronted with what it believes is a brazen violation of its airspace by the country it considers its principal national security threat, this stalwart ally now looks to us and NATO for help. A reluctance from us or NATO to stand with them in investigating the incident could boomerang against our current efforts to convince Lithuanian lawmakers to increase budgetary support for U.S. and NATO operations. It could also heighten a Baltic sense of insecurity which could fuel destabilizing extremist sentiments in their relationship with Russia. MULL