SU-27: THREE ACTION REQUESTS

S E C R E T VILNIUS 000993

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS MOPS LH NATO RU
SUBJECT: SU-27: THREE ACTION REQUESTS

REF: A. VILNIUS 977


B. NOLL-MULL/KELLY EMAIL 9/20/05

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen D. Mull for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is an action request for Washington agencies --
see paras 6, 8 and 12 -- and USNATO -- see para 12.


2. (S/NF) Summary: Several loose ends remain from last
Friday's crash of a Russian Su-27 (ref a) in Lithuania.
Senior Lithuanian officials believe that inconsistencies in
Russian accounts of the incident could indicate the plane
purposely violated Lithuanian airspace as part of a
provocation to undermine public confidence in NATO - and
attacks on NATO have already started, especially from one
political party with suspected links to Russian interests.
We request guidance on responding to the GOL's request for
USG assistance in decoding the plane's black box and its
offer to allow USG personnel to exploit wreckage from the
Su-27. Additionally, we are concerned that a reported
admonition from NATO Secretary-General de Hoop Scheffer to
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Valionis to "keep NATO out of
this" will fuel growing public concerns about NATO
reliability at a critical time in Lithuania's budget debate
on defense expenditures. On the eve of U.S. assumption of
Baltic air policing duties, we urge U.S. support for NATO
engagement with the Lithuanians on the issue both in Brussels
and in our public line here. End Summary.

Lithuanians: This is No Accident
--------------


3. (S) The Ambassador discussed the implications of the
Su-27 crash with DefMin Kirkilas and Commander of the Armed
Forces Tutkus September 20 and MFA Americas Department
Director Jonas Paslauskas September 21. All three expressed
the GOL's conviction that the incursion into Lithuanian
airspace (if not the crash itself) was a premeditated
provocation by Russia. Summarizing the Lithuanian case, they
all noted that the pilot had disengaged his transponder,
allowing the plane to evade detection; that Russians
initially claimed that the plane was unarmed; that it
contained no dangerous material; and that they would share
their radar records of the Su-27's movements with the
Lithuanians. Subsequently, the Lithuanians discovered that
the plane was armed with four air-to-air missiles, and that
it contained two kilograms of a radioactive material.
Paslauskas noted that the Russians withdrew their offer to
share the radar data and that the plane's pilot "changes his
story every day." All three officials also expressed concern
about what they described as provocative statements by senior
Russian officials, including a purported quote by Defense
Minister Ivanov that the pilot would receive a medal upon his
return to Russia. (At COB September 21 Mission received a
nonpaper from the GOL providing Lithuania's version of the
events. We will transmit full text septel.)

Black Boxes
--------------


4. (S) The GOL has requested USG assistance in reading the
voice recordings and flight data on the black boxes they have
recovered from the wreckage. The GOL does not have the
technical capacity to read these devices. The Ambassador
conveyed to GOL officials several USG concerns and questions
that might circumscribe our involvement in this process,
including assurances about the device's legal ownership and
confirmation that Russia concur with U.S. review of the
device (ref b). Additionally, we pointed out that France may
have the necessary technical capabilities to assist in this
effort.


5. (S) Paslauskas told the Ambassador that Lithuania
continues to prefer that the USG decode the devices. If that
is not possible, the GOL would like USG assistance in
recruiting another NATO country to perform that task.
Paslauskas said that he could not opine definitively on the
legal status of the black box, but that the GOL believed
that, because the crash took place on Lithuanian soil, it has
the right to include it in its investigation of the crash.
Paslauskas also said that the GOL had no objection to Russian
observation of the device's decoding; in fact, it would
strongly welcome Russian participation.


6. (S) Action Request: We request Washington's guidance on
what advice, if any, we can provide to the GOL about how to

decode the black box.

Exploitation of the Plane
--------------


7. (S/NF) GOL Commander of the Armed Forces Tutkus, Minister
Kirkilas, and Paslauskas have all told us in the past two
days that the USG can exploit items of technical interest
from the wreckage. This offer is separate and distinct from
the request for assistance with the black box. The GOL is
holding these items, including debris from the SU-27's four
air-to-air missiles, at a secure location distant from the
crash site. We have heard conflicting information from USG
agencies about the usefulness of this material. This Mission
stands ready to support USG entities that ma have interest in
this offer.


8. (S/NF) Action Request: Please provide us with
instructions on whether to tell the Lithuanians that the USG
intends to examine this material. If the answer is
affirmative, it would be useful for us to know information on
when and how this examination will occur.

NATO Dimension and Our Public Line
--------------


9. (U) The story continues to dominate Lithuanian headlines.
The GOL, and to a slightly lesser extent this Mission, is
besieged with press inquiries. So far, we have limited out
public statements to the following: "This is a very serious
incident. We are very glad there was no loss of life. It is
too early to comment on this matter. We await the results of
the investigation." The British Embassy has taken the same
line.


10. (SBU) The incident also comes at a sensitive juncture in
Lithuanian budget deliberations for next year, in which some
parliamentarians argue that Lithuania's relatively large
support for overseas operations with NATO and the U.S. in
Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere is going unrewarded. Local
political opponents of Lithuania's NATO membership (generally
opposed to Lithuania's involvement in NATO and Coalition
operations) have already seized upon this incident as an
opportunity to undermine public confidence in the Alliance's
ability to ensure Lithuania's security. The incident has
also brought to the fore Lithuanian neuroses about Russian
motives and the West's commitment to its security.
Lithuania's leading daily Lietovos Rtyas concluded its lead
editorial this morning with the remark that "it might be now
that we see if our NATO partners are really prepared to
defend us."


11. (S) These concerns were compounded within the Lithuanian
national security establishment by Foreign Minister
Valionis's two conversations September 20 with NATO SYG De
Hoop Scheffer. According to Paslauskas, the SYG told
Valionis that Lithuania should "keep NATO out of this." De
Hoop Scheffer's remark has caused deep consternation within
the Lithuanian government, and seems at odds with reports we
have received from U.S. military sources that NATO has tasked
SHAPE to prepare a report analyzing NATO response to the
incident.


12. (SBU) Action Request: Given the timing of this incident
on the eve of U.S. assumption of Baltic air policing duties
on October 1 and during the current sensitive discussion of
Lithuania's budget commitments to NATO and U.S. operations,
we strongly encourage U.S. support for NATO engagement with
Lithuania on the issue. A press line from NATO that it is
working with Lithuania in analyzing NATO air policing
response to the incident (as evidenced in the tasking to
SHAPE),and will take any necessary follow-up measures in
assuring continued effective air policing coverage, would go
far in quelling the growing public controversy that, left
unchecked, could begin to negatively affect U.S. interests
here.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Lithuania has been unflinchingly supportive of U.S.
interests, agreeing to almost any mission we ask of it.
Confronted with what it believes is a brazen violation of its
airspace by the country it considers its principal national
security threat, this stalwart ally now looks to us and NATO
for help. A reluctance from us or NATO to stand with them in

investigating the incident could boomerang against our
current efforts to convince Lithuanian lawmakers to increase
budgetary support for U.S. and NATO operations. It could
also heighten a Baltic sense of insecurity which could fuel
destabilizing extremist sentiments in their relationship with
Russia.
MULL