LITHUANIA'S GOVERNING COALITION: "LET'S STAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000662 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL LH SUBJECT: LITHUANIA'S GOVERNING COALITION: "LET'S STAY TOGETHER" REF: A. VILNIUS 636 ¶B. VILNIUS 504 Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Nancy Cohen for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Lithuania's ruling coalition shows every indication of surviving the resignation of Minister of Economy Viktor Uspaskich, and Uspaskich's Labor Party shows signs it will emerge from this episode intact. The Prime Minister and President look likely to accept Labor's nominee to replace Uspaskich in the Cabinet. One potential source of instability remains -- the PM's party continues to seek to meddle in Labor's internal politics in a risky gambit to reduce Uspaskich's influence. For his part, the ex-Economy Minister plans to stay on as head of the party he established. Uspaskich says he will appeal the decision of the Ethics Commission that found he had used his public office to promote private interests. If he succeeds, he will likely run in elections this fall for the parliamentary seat he just relinquished. Despite internal political turmoil, Lithuania's strong support for U.S. foreign policy objectives remains solid. End Summary. -------------- Government Stability -------------- ¶2. (C) Cabinet members representing the three largest parties in the ruling coalition told the Ambassador that Uspaskich's Labor Party would remain in the coalition, despite its leader's resignation from both government office and the Seimas. FM Antanas Valionis (Social Liberal) on June 20 said that he did not expect the Labor Party would pull out of the coalition over Uspaskich's reverses. Defense Minister Gediminas Kirkilas (Social Democrat) told the Ambassador that the coalition would be around "for at least another year," and Interior Minister Ginataras Furmanavicius (Labor) said the partners would work to ensure that the coalition endured until the end of its mandate in 2008. Furmanavicius noted that the Labor Party (which controls 40 seats in the 141-seat parliament) had done the math: Labor is unable go it alone, and the numbers and politics do not add up for any other mix of coalition partners. For his part, President Valdas Adamkus told the Ambassador that he is content that the coalition will survive, opining that reorganizing government now would drain everyone's attention and energy and impede progress on all other matters of concern. -------------- "More Trips to America!" -------------- ¶3. (U) The Labor Party moved quickly following Uspaskich's resignation, and on June 23 nominated Kestutis Dauksys to become the next Minister of Economy. Dauksys (45),who currently chairs the Labor Party's Finance and Tax Committee, is a member of the parliamentary Economics and Finance Committee and heads the Intelligence Oversight Committee. Like many in the Labor Party including the party leader, he comes to government from business. Dauksys studied economics at Vilnius University, going on to be an assistant in the university economics department, and studied international marketing in Moscow. PM Algirdas Brazauskas has announced he will recommend Dauksys to the President. Pending completion of Dauksys's background investigation and a green light from Lithuania's Special Investigative Service, media and the Ambassador's contacts in the Cabinet anticipate that Adamkus will approve the appointment on or about July 1. Ever the wag, Uspaskich told the press June 22 that his first piece of advice to Dauksys if he is confirmed will be to avoid travel to Moscow. "More trips to America!" he said. -------------- Uspaskich: A Power on the Sidelines -------------- ¶4. (C) DefMin Kirkilas acknowledged to the Ambassador that the Social Democrats' efforts to stage a coup within the Labor Party -- which he had confidently previewed to the Ambassador the week before -- had gained no traction. Kirkilas insisted, however, that the Social Democratic Party would continue to pursue its plan. It still was "picking up whispers" in the corridors of the Seimas, he said, that some within the party may attempt to challenge Uspaskich for the party leadership. In a separate meeting June 20, Furmanavicius dismissed suggestions that there would be any real challenge to Uspaskich and said that comments of other party officials to that effect had been cited out of context. The Labor Party may lose a few members, Furmanavicius acknowledged, but will retain its strength. ¶5. (C) Uspaskich has indicated he will stay on as leader of the Labor Party he founded less than two years ago. Deputy Speaker of Parliament (Labor) Vydas Gedvilas told us that Uspaskich will also continue to participate in the coalition's Political Council. The press reports that Labor is attempting to expand the purview of the Council, proposing to amend the coalition agreement to authorize the Council (and hence Uspaskich) to discuss, among other issues, the national budget -- normally the prerogative of the Government and Parliament, both of which bodies Uspaskich just resigned. -------------- ...Planning his Return -------------- ¶6. (C) Gedvilas said that Uspaskich will focus on appealing the ruling of the government Ethics Commission (ref A) that he had violated the law prohibiting conflict of interest among public servants, and will await the decision of the three parliamentary commissions currently investigating him. Should he clear his name, Gedvilas said, Uspaskich will run in fall elections in his home district of Kedainiai to reclaim the parliament seat he just vacated. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Uspaskich remains the unquestioned strongman of a very disciplined party, despite his recent dual resignation. While some ambitious opportunists may seek to take Uspaskich on within the party, it is hard to see how they would succeed given that Uspaskich bankrolls the party and is its charismatic public face. Off-message comments of some Labor Party members do not necessarily presage a party coup, but rather suggest predictable growing pains in Lithuania's young Labor Party. ¶8. (C) What is striking in all this apparent turmoil is that neither the Government, nor the Labor Party, nor, really, Labor's embattled leader have folded -- even as the coalition's second largest party, the PSD, continues to wage a covert campaign to manipulate events in the largest party. We attribute the coalition's endurance to the fact that there is currently no viable alternative to the uneasy partnership currently in power. ¶9. (C) Lithuania's continuing internal political turmoil, while exhausting and aggravating to most Lithuanians, has had no visible impact on its continued strong support for and activism on issues of key importance to the U.S. -- from promoting democracy in Belarus to helping stabilize Afghanistan. It is significant that while the latest political crisis was unfolding, we were making a pitch at the highest levels for Lithuania's continued commitment to deploy troops in Iraq. Not a single interlocutor indicated there would be a problem, in spite of the political storms. Mull