SU-27 CRASH INVESTIGATION ENDS, PILOT SET TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 001070 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2015 TAGS: MOPS PGOV PINS PREL RS LH SUBJECT: SU-27 CRASH INVESTIGATION ENDS, PILOT SET TO DEPART (BY CAR) REF: A. VILNIUS 977 ¶B. VILNIUS 993 ¶C. SECSTATE 176092 ¶D. VILNIUS 1012 ¶E. VILNIUS 1017 ¶F. VILNIUS 1046 Classified By: Political/Economic Officer Alexander Titolo for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Lithuania's Prosecutor General on October 6 closed the investigation of Russian pilot Valery Troyanov's involvement in the September 15 crash of a Russian Su-27 in Lithuania (ref A) and lifted his house arrest. Press reports indicate that Troyanov and his wife plan to depart Lithuania by car for Kaliningrad by the morning of October 7. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador had broached the pilot's status with GOL leadership on several occasions to ensure that they understood the need to prevent the pilot's detention from clouding the other issues raised by the crash (refs D and E). Ministry of Defense officials were careful not to get out in front of the Prosecutor General, though they made clear privately that they hoped for and anticipated a relatively speedy resolution. The conclusion of Lithuania's intergovernmental commission's investigation and the presentation of its findings to the Prosecutor General October 5 paved the way for the decision to release the pilot. The commission concluded that the intrusion into Lithuanian airspace and subsequent crash were the result of "technical, organizational, and human" factors. This finding holds that the event was not a deliberate provocation, but rather the result of hasty preparation and lack of organization by the Russian military. ¶3. (C) Comment: This episode has spurred intense debate here about airspace security, relations with Russia, and the meaning of NATO's security guarantee. The GOL can be expected to keep pushing at NATO for more attention to the threat posed by the state of Russia's military and the unique challenges created by Kaliningrad's physical separation from Russia proper. The Lithuanians -- and we -- eagerly await the result of NATO's investigation of the incident, with a view to maximizing the effectiveness of the air policing regime in the Baltics. MULL