GUNS AN ELECTION ISSUE IN GREATER TORONTO AREA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TORONTO 003195

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2015
TAGS: KCRM PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: GUNS AN ELECTION ISSUE IN GREATER TORONTO AREA

REF: TORONTO 2966

Classified By: Consul General Jessica Lecroy for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (SBU) Summary: A November poll of Greater Toronto Area
(GTA - population 5 million) voters revealed they considered
crime to be their second most important issue in the context
of the Canadian federal election campaign. Not
coincidentally, Toronto is experiencing an unprecedented wave
of fatal shootings, with reports of the latest carnage being
played up in the Canadian press. How the gun issue will play
in the upcoming political campaigns and whether candidates
will try to blame the U.S. for the rising violence is yet to
be determined. This message provides context for the many
factors in play. End Summary.

Gun Crimes Up in Toronto
--------------


2. (SBU) A poll conducted during the third week of November
by Environics Research Corporation for the Canadian
Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) revealed that crime was second
only to health care as a concern for voters in Canada,s
largest city (Toronto is 2.5 million; the GTA is 5 million).
Recent violent crime statistics support voter concern. There
were an unprecedented 72 homicides in Toronto for 2005, and
50 were committed with guns. Both the number of murders and
the homicide-by-firearm ratio is the highest in Toronto
history. Toronto is still a safe place relative to
comparable-sized cities in the U.S. Chicago has virtually
the same population as Toronto and 2005 year-to-date has a
homicide rate of 13 per 100,000 people. Even with the
alarming spike, Toronto,s 2005 homicide rate is 2.6 per
100,000 residents, small comfort to Toronto residents.

Gun Violence Is an Election Issue
--------------


3. (SBU) Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair turned up the heat
after a December 1 meeting with Ontario Premier Dalton
McGuinty by promising to make gun violence an election issue.
Blair also took a swipe at the federal Justice Ministry,s
refusal to act on Ontario Attorney General Michael Bryant,s
request to strengthen existing federal firearms statutes
(septel) when he said that "Only the federal government can
toughen gun laws" (NOTE: Blair,s comments came following a
November month-long gun surrender and amnesty program
conducted by the Toronto Police that netted 250 firearms and
1,500 rounds of ammunition. END NOTE). NDP MP candidate to
represent Toronto,s Trinity-Spadina riding, Olivia Chow
(wife of NDP leader Jack Layton),claimed on the December 5
telecast of the talk show "Focus on Ontario" that 50% of the
guns used in Toronto-area crimes were smuggled from the U.S.
Gun control activists in Ontario have taken note of the
recent decision by a U.S. federal court to allow a New York
City lawsuit against gun manufacturers to proceed, despite
recent federal legislation that shields gun makers; the suit
targets guns smuggled in from other states. The November 18
fatal shooting of 18-year-old Amon Beckles as he emerged from
the funeral of an earlier shooting victim appeared to have
been the tipping point for Toronto's black community; a
future "Gun Summit" with Prime Minister Martin has not yet
been scheduled.

NRA and Rapper 50 Cent Aren't Helping U.S. Image
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Even the U.S.-based National Rifle Association
(NRA) has entered the fray. On December 3, representatives
of the NRA,s "grassroots division" held a seminar in the
Toronto suburb of Scarborough at the annual convention of the
Canadian Shooting Sports Association on how to help gun
rights candidates (NOTE: Scarborough is one of the relatively
few neighborhoods touched by the recent spate of gun
violence. END NOTE). Reacting to the visit, Deputy Prime
Minister Anne McLellan said, "The NRA and their U.S-style,
big money gun lobby efforts are not welcome here." Someone
else who is not welcome in Canada is rap artist 50 Cent (aka
Curtis Jackson). GTA Federal Liberal MP Dan McTeague
(Pickering/Scarborough East) led the unsuccessful effort to
ban Jackson from a Canadian concert tour because his songs
frequently allude to guns and violence. In 2003, an
18-year-old male was shot dead outside a 50 Cent concert in
Toronto. 50 Cent was admitted, but only with special
permission due to past felony drug charges in the U.S. His
May 2005 visit to Toronto, when he made a brief guest
appearance at a downtown club, did not spark the same kind of
public debate that his December visit has generated.


5. (C) On December 5 and 6 Ontario Minister of Community
Safety and Corrections Monte Kwinter (protect) phoned the CG
to review the status of the gun cases. Kwinter reassured the
CG that Ontario provincial politicians would try hard to
avoid publicly connecting the U.S. to the current gun issue,
however, the commonly accepted U.S. nexus might be very hard
to avoid. Kwinter briefed the CG on a proposed provincial
"guns and gangs operations center" that may operate as an
outgrowth of the Toronto Police guns and gans unit. Kwinter
said Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) Commissioner Gwen
Boniface would play a big role in the task force and that it
would include representatives from the Toronto Police Service
and the Ontario Attorney General,s office. The Royal
Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) was back-briefed on the
proposal. During the course of the conversation, he
complained that, "With friends like the NRA, who needs
enemies," but added that he understands that the U.S.
government "certainly has no control over the activities of
the NRA." Kwinter also told the CG that no date had been set
for the Gun Summit to be held in Toronto that was promised by
Prime Minister Martin during his meeting with representatives
of the Coalition of African Canadian Organizations (CACO)
November 22.


6. (SBU) Reacting to the spike in gun-related violence,
Ontario has promised to fund 1,000 new police officers
throughout the province. Toronto will get 250 new officers,
though not at once. Toronto Police have reassigned some
officers to focus on community policing, but sources close to
the Toronto Police Service said that the Service can only
train 40 to 50 cadets at a time in its 13-week academy, so
the new officers will not begin hitting the streets of
Toronto before the new year.


7. (C) Comment: After the CG phoned Minister Kwinter on
December 8, he advised that the CBC had just minutes earlier
asked him about plans by the province and federal government
to make a big announcement on December 9 on the gun issue.
Kwinter said he was unaware of plans for such an
announcement, but indicated he thought federal officials
would leap at the chance to host a "Gun Summit" in Toronto as
a publicity magnet during the election campaign. Kwinter,s
frank discussions with the CG signal that this issue is sure
to come up during the federal election campaign despite any
efforts by Ontario government officials to avoid pointing a
finger at the U.S. 38% of Canada,s population lives in
Ontario, and the Greater Toronto Area is the political center
of gravity for the province. GTA voters are worried about
guns, despite the fact that gun crimes are limited to certain
areas of the GTA, are only committed by a small number of
people, and appear to be mainly gang-related. We have
received indications that political considerations may begin
to influence bilateral law enforcement cooperation, though
operational cooperation with the ATF remain excellent. The
gun issue may also likely be raised in Ambassador Wilkins'
December 15 editorial board meeting with Toronto's "Sun"
newspaper, which is law and order focused. End Comment.


8. (U) This message was cleared by Consulate A/LEGATT, ICE
Attache, and ATF Assistant Country Attache.

LECROY