DUTCH POLDIR ON AFGHANISTAN, FORUM FOR THE FUTURE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 003037 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MARR AF NL SUBJECT: DUTCH POLDIR ON AFGHANISTAN, FORUM FOR THE FUTURE, ICC, AND IRAN REF: A. THE HAGUE 2988 ¶B. HAGUE-STATE E-MAIL.11/8/05 Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Chat Blakeman, reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting with Charge on November 8, Dutch POLDIR Hugo Siblesz confirmed that Defense Minister Kamp is driving the review of Dutch commitments to ISAF Stage III and stressed that additional support from partners -- including the U.S. -- will be critical to a successful Dutch deployment to Uruzghan. The Dutch intend to remain actively involved in determining how its contribution to the Foundation for the Future is spent. Siblesz said that the Dutch find the U.S. position on a draft ICC UN resolution reasonable. On Iran, he expressed frustration with the EU's inability to deal with provocative Iranian actions and described recent GAERC discussions of the topic as "rough." End SUMMARY. AFGHANISTAN: HELP US -------------- ¶2. (C) Noting that SACEUR was in The Hague that day for high-level consultations on Afghanistan, Charge asked Siblesz for his views on the internal Dutch discussion on ISAF Stage III participation. Siblesz said that he was "more optimistic" this week than previously, but made clear that the Dutch viewed the consultations with SACEUR as a critical step in determining whether and in what capacity the Dutch would participate. In response to Charge's question, Siblesz confirmed that the Foreign Ministry and uniformed military remained committed to the Uruzghan mission, while Minister of Defense Kamp had expressed strong personal reservations based on his reading of reports from Dutch military intelligence (MIVD). ¶3. (C) Siblesz noted that he had just come from a meeting between Foreign Minister Bot and Defense Minister Kamp on Afghanistan. He stressed that the Dutch recognized the importance of ISAF Stage III as a test for NATO and wanted it to succeed. The intelligence depicting Uruzghan as a "Taliban heartland," however, coupled with the anticipated OEF drawdown from Zabul and the two northern fire bases in Uruzghan province raised serious concerns. Siblesz said the Dutch had secured additional contributions from the Canadians and thought they were making progress with the British. While the Australians had been "flabbergasted" by the apparent Dutch turnabout, according to Siblesz, he felt they would hold off on changing their plans until the Dutch sorted out their situation. Eventually, he stressed, the U.S. would almost certainly also be asked to make additional commitments -- including maintaining current deployments in the region -- to support the Dutch mission. FORUM FOR THE FUTURE: STRINGS FIRMLY ATTACHED -------------- - ¶4. (C) Charge expressed appreciation for the Dutch decision to commit USD 1 million to the Foundation for the Future. Siblesz stressed that this contribution came with strings attached -- i.e., the Dutch want to be actively involved in determining how the money is spent. Charge asked whether the Dutch still had Morocco/North Africa specifically in mind; Siblesz replied that the Dutch now felt that these areas were sufficiently covered by other EU programs and wanted to focus more on the Gulf. Charge urged the Dutch to participate actively in the upcoming Forum for the Future meeting in Bahrain. ICC: WE LIKE YOUR TONE -------------- ¶5. (C) Siblesz said that, after a conversation with EUR AS Fried over the weekend, he had been in touch with Dutch Permrep to the UN Frank Majoor regarding the draft resolution on the ICC. Siblesz stressed that he and Majoor agreed that the U.S. position presented a viable way forward, provided all could agree on the "right language." He said that Majoor would work for a productive outcome during the upcoming debate. IRAN: GRUMBLING IN THE TRENCHES -------------- ¶6. (C) On Iran, Siblesz noted that it had been a "major topic" of discussion during the November 7 GAERC, and stressed that debate had been "rough." He claimed that the Dutch had been instrumental in getting language into the GAERC conclusions holding Iran responsible for its actions. It was clear, he added, that the EU as a whole still favors engagement with Iran, but there is no consensus on how to engage given Iran's provocative behavior. Siblesz observed that the EU at 25 is really not very well prepared to deal with such a sensitive and complicated topic. In the Netherlands, he added, parliamentary pressure on the government is building to take a harder line on Iran. BLAKEMAN