NETHERLANDS/CLIMATE CHANGE: DUTCH PESSIMISTIC

UNCLAS THE HAGUE 003031 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UBI/REITER AND G/H. WATSON WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ/CONNAUGHTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV PREL NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/CLIMATE CHANGE: DUTCH PESSIMISTIC ABOUT MONTREAL CONFERENCE (C-TN5-01031) REF: A. STATE 194517 ¶B. 2004 THE HAGUE 3233 ¶1. Summary: While hoping for a "clear mandate" for devising a post-Kyoto climate initiative, Dutch environment officials are pessimistic about the Montreal UN Climate Change Conference (COP-11). They expect the U.S. and large developing countries to obstruct consensus, but say the GONL will work to achieve the best possible outcome using recent EU Environment Council conclusions as the basis for their negating position. The GONL sees its closest allies in the talks as Norway and Sweden, as well as small island states with vulnerable coastlines. Dutch climate minister Peter van Geel is a pragmatist who has been active in seeking practical climate change solutions with countries outside the Kyoto framework. End Summary. ¶2. On November 1 econoff met with Henriette Bersee, Deputy Director of the Ministry of Environment's Climate Change Office to discuss Dutch expectations for the 28 November-9 December UN Climate Change Conference (COP-11) in Montreal. Bersee said the GONL hoped the meeting would yield "political commitments," especially from the U.S., to help shape a post-Kyoto regime. Acknowledging that China, India and Brazil should also be key participants in any future climate arrangement, she said the GONL and EU would work hard to draw these countries into meaningful deliberations. She predicted negotiations in Montreal would be tough and feared the U.S. would hinder the meeting from generating a "clear mandate." ¶3. Bersee said the EU Environmental Council's October 2005 conclusions would form the basis for the GONL's negotiating position. In particular, she referenced the conclusions' call for "broadening participation" through "common but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities." Ideally, the GONL wanted a graduated approach to curbing emissions growth, with "relative targets" for developing countries and "absolute commitments," for developed countries. However, she quickly added that the GONL recognized that CO2 caps are not on the table and said her government would work to build the best possible consensus. ¶5. Bersee said the GONL views the Nordics, especially Norway and Sweden, as their closest allies in the climate change debate. Dutch climate positions, she added, are also resonating with small island states with vulnerable coastlines like the Netherlands. ¶6. The Dutch delegation to COP-11 will be led by Minister for Environment Peter van Geel. Yvo de Boer, International Affairs Advisor, and Bersee will also attend, as will a representative from the ministries of Development, Foreign Affairs, Economic Affairs and Transport. ¶7. Comment: While they publicly support caps of CO2 emissions, Dutch officials have told embassy and Washington officials they understand economic concerns make post-2012 emissions caps a non-starter. Environment Minister Peter van Geel is a pragmatist who has made an effort to work with the U.S. and key developing countries on climate change. He traveled to Washington in November 2004 during the Dutch EU presidency to gain insights into U.S. climate positions (ref B),brought the Netherlands into the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum, and then worked to organize informal discussions between U.S. and EU environment ministers in March 2005. He and his staff are respected by their EU peers, are not bound by Kyoto dogma, and could help us achieve practical climate change solutions. End comment. BLAKEMAN