NETHERLANDS/UNSC REFORM: DUTCH COULD SUPPORT G-4

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 002018

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/19/15
TAGS: PREL NL UNSC UNGA
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/UNSC REFORM: DUTCH COULD SUPPORT G-4
RESOLUTION DESPITE RESERVATIONS

REF: SECSTATE 132429

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Nathaniel Dean for reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d)

1, (C) Summary: The Dutch have reservations about the G4
resolution but could end up voting "yes" if it is the only
option on the table. End Summary.


2. (C) Poloff shared reftel points with Pieter Ramaer (MFA,
Office Director for UN Political Affairs) on July 18. The
Dutch remain undecided on the G4 resolution at a time when
shifting political currents make it difficult to predict
which way the wind will blow. Ramaer reiterated that their
prerequisite remains a resolution including a review clause;
they also want more clarity on the veto and better criteria
for determining membership. The Dutch red line seems to be
avoiding the failure of UNSC reform this year. Ramaer
indicated they could vote "yes" if the G4 resolution, even
unamended, is the only alternative to failure.


3. (C) Reviewing the conflicting arguments they have heard
recently, Ramaer said the G4 framework is the only viable
option. The Uniting for Consensus (UfC) demarche by local
Ambassadors on Friday, July 15 was "unconvincing," Ramaer
reported, adding that it "gave the impression they only want
to block Japan and India" They can count only 30 or so votes
in the UNGA, he added. However, Ramaer said that on
"accountability, they have a point." He said the Dutch tried
to convince them that the "review clause" mechanism would
satisfy their concerns and justify their dropping their
proposal in favor of the G4. As for the Chinese, Ramaer said
they signaled dissatisfaction with the G4 draft; they told
the Dutch that "they value consensus and consultation" and
warned that "merely two-thirds of the UNGA is not enough
support" for a successful UNSC reform package. The Japanese
concentrated their demarche on the difficulty of justifying
to their public the added costs that a peacebuilding
commission or human rights council would entail; the
implication was that a Japanese UNSC seat was the
prerequisite for support of broader UN reform, Ramaer
reported. Finally, he observed that Germany's lobbying
effort for the G4 is less effective because it is hampered by
infighting (in Berlin) and external criticism (in Brussels).


4. (C) Last week in the UNGA, the Dutch were "surprised by
the level of negativity in the debate on the G4 draft,"
Ramaer reported, singling out the strong P5 interventions as
setting the tone. The Dutch thought the G4 had an edge going
in, but afterwards their optimistic scenario clouded. This
leaves the Dutch in a quandary. On one hand, they do not
like the current G4 draft; on the other, they are loathe to
forego what might be the "last opportunity for UNSC reform in
a decade." As for national ratifications of a UNSC reform
package that might garner only two-thirds support in an UNGA
vote, Ramaer said the G4 (and the Netherlands) hope the
momentum of an UNGA success would convince national
parliaments -- including the U.S. Congress -- to ratify the
change.
SOBEL