NETHERLANDS/UNSC REFORM: DUTCH COULD SUPPORT G-4

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 002018 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/19/15 TAGS: PREL NL UNSC UNGA SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/UNSC REFORM: DUTCH COULD SUPPORT G-4 RESOLUTION DESPITE RESERVATIONS REF: SECSTATE 132429 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Nathaniel Dean for reasons 1. 4 (b) and (d) 1, (C) Summary: The Dutch have reservations about the G4 resolution but could end up voting "yes" if it is the only option on the table. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Poloff shared reftel points with Pieter Ramaer (MFA, Office Director for UN Political Affairs) on July 18. The Dutch remain undecided on the G4 resolution at a time when shifting political currents make it difficult to predict which way the wind will blow. Ramaer reiterated that their prerequisite remains a resolution including a review clause; they also want more clarity on the veto and better criteria for determining membership. The Dutch red line seems to be avoiding the failure of UNSC reform this year. Ramaer indicated they could vote "yes" if the G4 resolution, even unamended, is the only alternative to failure. ¶3. (C) Reviewing the conflicting arguments they have heard recently, Ramaer said the G4 framework is the only viable option. The Uniting for Consensus (UfC) demarche by local Ambassadors on Friday, July 15 was "unconvincing," Ramaer reported, adding that it "gave the impression they only want to block Japan and India" They can count only 30 or so votes in the UNGA, he added. However, Ramaer said that on "accountability, they have a point." He said the Dutch tried to convince them that the "review clause" mechanism would satisfy their concerns and justify their dropping their proposal in favor of the G4. As for the Chinese, Ramaer said they signaled dissatisfaction with the G4 draft; they told the Dutch that "they value consensus and consultation" and warned that "merely two-thirds of the UNGA is not enough support" for a successful UNSC reform package. The Japanese concentrated their demarche on the difficulty of justifying to their public the added costs that a peacebuilding commission or human rights council would entail; the implication was that a Japanese UNSC seat was the prerequisite for support of broader UN reform, Ramaer reported. Finally, he observed that Germany's lobbying effort for the G4 is less effective because it is hampered by infighting (in Berlin) and external criticism (in Brussels). ¶4. (C) Last week in the UNGA, the Dutch were "surprised by the level of negativity in the debate on the G4 draft," Ramaer reported, singling out the strong P5 interventions as setting the tone. The Dutch thought the G4 had an edge going in, but afterwards their optimistic scenario clouded. This leaves the Dutch in a quandary. On one hand, they do not like the current G4 draft; on the other, they are loathe to forego what might be the "last opportunity for UNSC reform in a decade." As for national ratifications of a UNSC reform package that might garner only two-thirds support in an UNGA vote, Ramaer said the G4 (and the Netherlands) hope the momentum of an UNGA success would convince national parliaments -- including the U.S. Congress -- to ratify the change. SOBEL