NETHERLANDS/VENEZUELA: SEEKING ALLIES TO CONTAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001853 SIPDIS ROME PLEASE PASS VATICAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL EPET NL EUN VELS SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/VENEZUELA: SEEKING ALLIES TO CONTAIN CHAVEZ REF: A. SECSTATE 117165 ¶B. THE HAGUE 1556(NOTAL) ¶C. ROME 2164 ¶D. CARACAS 1865 ¶E. BRUSSELS USEU 2481 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Schofer for reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Dutch remain concerned about Chavez's intentions and are seeking allies to contain and moderate his regional and domestic policies. The Dutch hope Venezuela's social and political traditions will limit his ability to become a "new Castro," but they are worried about his interest in the Dutch Antilles. FM Bot plans to visit Caracas at some point this fall to deliver a "strong message" against Venezuelan meddling; at this point the Dutch are not prepared to do much more, but are considering options (including those outlined in ref d). The Venezuelan desk officer said the MFA is also considering inviting Chavez to visit The Hague at some point. END SUMMARY. DUTCH SEEK ALLIES TO COUNTER CHAVEZ: U.S., BRAZIL, HOLY SEE ¶2. (C) Poloff discussed ref a demarche points with Dimitri Vogelaar (MFA, Venezuela Deskoff) on June 24. Noting that the Dutch enjoyed good relations with Venezuela before Chavez came to power, Vogelaar regretted that the Dutch now share the U.S. view that Chavez's influence must be contained, especially with regard to the Netherlands Antilles (ref b). In addition to the U.S., the Dutch believe the Holy See (with whom they have already begun to engage through their missions in Caracas and Brussels),Brazil, and others could play useful roles in helping to moderate Chavez's behavior. CHAVEZ A PROBLEM, BUT NO CASTRO NUEVO ¶2. (C) The Dutch have reluctantly concluded that Chavez is here to stay, according to Vogelaar, but doubt he can become "a new Castro" due to the "checks and balances" inherent in the Venezuelan system. Vogelaar argued that NGO's, a free media, and freedom of speech are all deeply embedded in Venezuela society, and suggested that indigenous opposition could be more effective "if it were more focused." The Dutch Embassy in Caracas reports growing dissatisfaction, including in Chavez's own party, resulting from the obvious failures of his reform agenda. ¶3. (C) At the same time, the Dutch are "worried about the internationalization of the Bolivarian revolution and the 
unrest Chavez foments in the entire Andean region," Vogelaar said. Through contacts with an umbrella organization for indigenous people, the Dutch have learned of Venezuelan meddling in Bolivia, Nicaragua and Ecuador. Closer to home, the Dutch DCM in Caracas has reported increased presence of the national guard in places where they have not been seen before, especially in the Venezuelan country side. The Dutch are concerned about harassment of the NGO Sumate. Finally, the Dutch have protested to the Venezuelan Ambassador to The Hague about comments that the Venezuelan Consul General made recently in Curacao criticizing the U.S. and the GoNL. BOT PLANNING FALL VISIT TO CARACAS ¶4. (C) Prompted by Dutch concerns over Venezuelan intentions toward the Netherlands Antilles (ref b),Vogelaar said his office was encouraging FM Bot to visit Venezuela this fall to clear the air. (The 1992 visit of the Dutch Minister of Defense was the last cabinet visit to Venezuela.) Although a date has not been set, Vogelaar said Bot planned to tell Chavez "in clear terms" that the Netherlands "will not tolerate Venezuelan meddling in the Dutch Antilles." "Chavez does not understand subtle," he noted pointedly. Vogelaar said Bot would also deliver a strong message concerning "EU Human Rights Norms" in their meeting. Vogelaar was aware that Chavez planned to visit Rome in August (ref c). After initially saying he could neither confirm nor deny a Chavez visit to the Hague, Vogelaar called June 29 to say the MFA was actively considering inviting Chavez to the Hague but was still deciding how and when. At the Embassy Fourth of July reception on June 28, however, the Venezuelan DCM denied knowing any plans for Chavez to visit here. ¶5. (C) Pressed on what exactly the Dutch were prepared to do to prevent "Venezuelan meddling" in the Dutch Antilles. Vogelaar suggested not much, at this point, beyond engaging with Chavez. Referring to Dutch Ambassador den Haas' report following his meeting with Ambassador Brownfield (ref d), which outlined some concrete steps the Dutch and U.S. might take, Vogelaar said it is now "going up the chain" at the MFA. He noted that the Dutch already maintain a coast guard and navy presence in the Dutch Antilles. AT THE EU, SPAIN CANNOT EXPECT TO LEAD ALONE ¶6. (C) With regard to EU action, Vogelaar disputed the view that Spain would dominate policy discussions (ref e). He noted Dutch Ambassador den Haas had very actively represented the current EU Presidency in Caracas and after July 1, when the UK takes over that job, he expects the Ambassador to continue defending the significant GoNL interests. Back in Brussels, the GoNL has kept a relatively low profile in EU councils relative to Spain, such as COLAT. That would certainly change if Venezuela's threats to GoNL interests sharpened, Vogelaar concluded. SOBEL