DUTCH REFERENDUM YIELDS HUGE NO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001536 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NL EUN SUBJECT: DUTCH REFERENDUM YIELDS HUGE NO REF: A) The Hague 1470 B) The Hague 1434 C) The Hague 393 D) 6/1/05 "Politics in the Netherlands" and previous Summary: Dutch voters delivered a resounding rejection of the EU Constitutional Treaty by voting overwhelmingly against it (62 to 38 percent) in a national referendum on June 1. More surprising than the negative result was the high turnout of almost 63 percent. Although the referendum is technically non-binding, the government and the main political parties who had lobbied in favor of the treaty have all said they will respect the will of the people by not ratifying the treaty. Parliament will debate next steps June 2, however, and may ask the government to withdraw the ratification act to avoid taking a formal vote on ratification (Prime Minister Balkenende has indicated the government would do so if asked.) The government is urging other EU member states to continue their own ratification processes, and may seek to retain the option of revisiting Dutch ratification at a later date. Balkenende has made clear that he, unlike Chirac, does not intend to make any changes in his government in response to the vote. End Summary. BIG NEE, BUT NO BIG CHANGES -------------- ¶2. The Dutch people have spoken on the EU Constitution and, by a margin of 62 percent to 38 percent, have said "Nee". While the high turnout -- 63 percent -- was unexpected, PM Balkenende stressed in press remarks following the vote that he does not consider the result a vote of no confidence in his government. He is therefore not expected to initiate any changes in his cabinet as a result, despite a small number of calls for the resignation of Foreign Minister Bot and Secretary of State for European Affairs Nicolai. ¶3. Although "obviously disappointed" with the result, Balkenende and others attempted to put a positive spin on the high turnout, noting that the intense debate generated during the campaign could benefit Dutch politics in the long run. Balkenende also took note of the "clear signal" sent by voters and promised to work within the EU "to do justice" to legitimate Dutch concerns regarding loss of sovereignty, the pace of integration, and the excessive Dutch financial contribution to the EU. Pointing out that the referendum was a Parliamentary (as opposed to government) initiative, Balkenende emphasized that "it is up to the parliament to decide what should happen next." WHAT NEXT? -------------- ¶4. Parliament will meet on June 2 in a special session to debate the referendum results. In late night television and radio debates on the evening of June 1, spokesman from across the political spectrum congratulated the "No" camp from running an effective campaign. Parliamentary leaders from the main establishment parties campaigning in favor of the Treaty openly acknowledged the need to reconnect with an electorate clearly dissatisfied with the status quo. All parties agreed that the referendum had been "a success" with regard to stimulating public interest in the EU and politic in general. "A triumph for democracy," said PvdA leader Wouter Bos, who also believed that the referendum could help to restore people's faith in politics. ¶5. While all party spokesmen have agreed to act in accordance with the results of the referendum, several were cautious not to declare the Treaty itself dead. Rather than holding a ratification vote immediately -- as the "No" camp prefers -- Parliament could vote to ask the government to withdraw the ratification act, thus leaving the treaty in legal limbo (signed, but not ratified or rejected). This would leave open the option of resubmitting the treaty for ratification at a later date, perhaps after other EU members have made their views clear and/or some specific Dutch concerns have been addressed. Balkenende has expressed his willingness to pursue this route, but will only do so if a large majority of Parliamentarians instruct him to do, thus sharing the political responsibility for what could be seen as an effort to evade the will of the people. COMMENT: -------------- ¶6. There is no doubt that, to the public, a "no" is a "no". The Netherlands will not ratify the Treaty in the near term, but Parliament may still try to avoid rejecting it outright if possible to preserve some measure of flexibility. Although Balkenende clearly does not intend to treat the result as a vote of no confidence in his leadership, the public will be watching closely how he -- and the rest of the political establishment -- handle the issue in coming weeks. Politicians, observers, and analysts here will no doubt continue to argue for weeks over exactly what the "no" means for European integration and, more immediately, for Dutch domestic politics. Sobel