CODEL SPECTER MEETS WITH EHUD BARAK AND SHIMON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007100 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON IS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS PEACE PROCESS GOI EXTERNAL SUBJECT: CODEL SPECTER MEETS WITH EHUD BARAK AND SHIMON PERES Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Vice Premier Shimon Peres and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, in separate meetings, told Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) that they are optimistic about the impact of Kadima on the peace process, and both predicted the Labor party would be marginalized under the leadership of Amir Peretz. Peres said that Hamas would not disarm if it has a strong showing in the next Palestinian elections and will not be willing to negotiate with the GOI. On regional issues, Barak encouraged the U.S. to lead the international community in pressing Syria to remove its remaining intelligence apparatus from Lebanon. He said pressure should start with the topic of Syrian operatives in Lebanon and eventually address Syrian WMD and Iranian nuclear aspirations. Barak suggested that the U.S. should soon lower its military profile in Iraq by redeploying from urban centers to remote bases and focusing on training Iraqi troops. Peres added that the Jordanians have a vital role to play in the economic dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians. End summary. -------------- -------------- PERES AND BARAK BULLISH ON KADIMA, FEARFUL FOR LABOR -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) On December 28, Senator Arlen Specter, accompanied by Joan Specter, staff assistants David DeBruyn and Tim Quest, and conoff met with former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Iris Sapir, MFA Counselor. Barak said that Ariel Sharon's actions in leaving Likud and forming Kadima have "clarified the dividing lines in the debate" between those who believe in a two-state solution and those who do not. Barak expressed concern for the future of his own Labor party under the leadership of Amir Peretz, and said that union influence on the Labor platform under Peretz would relegate Labor to the status of a "niche party." ¶3. (C) In a separate meeting, Senator Arlen Specter, accompanied by Joan Specter, staff assistants David DeBruyn and Tim Quest, and conoff met with Vice Premier Shimon Peres; Jill Marie Reinach, senior strategist; Iris Sapir, MFA Counselor; and Meir Nitzan, Mayor of Rishon Letzion. Peres told the Senator that the creation of the Kadima Party brought about the "death" of the ideological right wing which would not accept a two-state solution to the conflict with the Palestinians. He assured Senator Specter that Kadima would win enough seats in the general election to lead a coalition government "without the right wing and without the communists." ¶4. (C) Peres introduced Senator Specter to Meir Nitzan, the mayor of Rishon Letzion, who recently declared himself a political independent after working in Labor politics for 25 years. Nitzan explained to the Senator that he was forced into leaving Labor because, "Peretz stole my party." Peres and Nitzan then expressed their fears that Peretz was driving Labor to the extreme ideological left at a time when most Israelis want pragmatic, centrist political leadership. -------------- -------------- PERES ON HAMAS: THE LEOPARD CANNOT CHANGE ITS SPOTS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Peres said that if Hamas wins in the upcoming Palestinian elections without surrendering its arms, it would be a "wasted victory," because it will not bring the Palestinians closer to statehood. Peres believes that Hamas, if victorious in the election, will not voluntarily disarm. He pointed out that Hamas is a religious party, while Fatah is a political party and commented that while "religious parties don't compromise, political parties do." Thus, he said, Israel would prefer any coalition of old and new Fatah over Hamas. -------------- -------------- A MESSAGE FROM BARAK: KEEP THE HEAT ON SYRIA AND IRAN -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Barak asked Senator Specter to convey a message to the Administration that he believes there is a "great opportunity" for leverage against the Syrians, Iranians, and Hizballah. Barak said that Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad is weak and vulnerable to increased international pressure. He said that the pressure on Syria must not be limited to the international investigation of the Hariri assassination in Lebanon, but should also include the removal of the Syrian intelligence apparatus from Lebanon. Barak contends that strong U.S., French and UN support for the Lebanese government would quicken the Syrian withdrawal and diminish the threat from Hizballah. Barak further asserted that Hizballah does not have the popular support of the Lebanese people and will eventually fold if isolated from Syrian support. Finally, Barak suggested that such an international political campaign should focus on the broad range of issues we have with Syria: its support for Hizballah through its intelligence presence in Lebanon; Syrian WMD; and its ally Iran. -------------- -------------- PERES CONCERNED ABOUT SHIA ALLIANCE BETWEEN IRAN AND IRAQ -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Peres expressed great concern about Iran, and said that a Shia-dominated Iraq in alliance with Iran would be a "disaster." He was hopeful that Kurdish and Sunni participation in the Iraqi government would limit Iranian influence. He believed that the absence of a firm, international consensus on Iran's nuclear ambitions was providing Iran "room to play," and said that the Europeans are always opposed to military intervention because they have no army. Peres concluded by saying that, "wars take time and are difficult, but the alternatives are often worse." -------------- PERES AND BARAK ON JORDAN AND IRAQ -------------- ¶8. (C) Peres said he believes there is an economic role for the Jordanians to play in furthering the creation of a Palestinian state. Peres said that while domestic political concerns would prevent Jordan from participating in a three-way political dialogue, it is in the Jordanians' interest to advance economic cooperation between the Israelis and Palestinians. He compared the importance of including the Jordanians in any discussion of the West Bank to the vital role the Egyptians played in the Israeli evacuation of the Gaza Strip. ¶9. (C) Barak said he believes that the U.S. should "lower its profile" by "getting American faces off the streets of Najaf, Baquba and Baghdad" as soon as possible and "give the new Iraqi government a chance" to maintain security. He said that U.S. forces should focus their efforts on training Iraqi troops, and reinforcing them when necessary from bases in more remote locations near the Jordanian and Syrian borders. Barak predicted that the newly elected Iraqi government will be politically obligated to ask the United States to withdraw its forces in order to maintain its legitimacy, and this request, in Barak's view, will afford the U.S. a good opportunity to redeploy forces. ¶10. (U) CODEL Specter cleared this cable. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ