NETANYAHU LEADS A WEAK, RIGHT-LEANING LIKUD AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007016

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU LEADS A WEAK, RIGHT-LEANING LIKUD AS
SUPPORT FOR KADIMA PROVES RESILIENT

REF: TEL AVIV 6920

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Newly elected Likud Party Chairman Binyamin
Netanyahu will likely call for a party decision as to whether
Likud should quit the government, and may still try to
recruit 61 MKs to create an alternative government to avoid
early elections. Observers assess that the latter has little
chance of succeeding (reftel),and the former may face
opposition by Likud ministers who want to keep their seats at
least until the January 3 Likud Central Committee votes on
Likud's Knesset list. Netanyahu, who obtained some 44
percent of the vote according to unofficial election results
in a particularly low voter turnout of 44 percent, was
consistently favored in the polls, although second runner-up
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who garnered 33 percent
support, had narrowed the gap towards the end of the race.
Right-wing settler leader Moshe Feiglin received 12 percent
of the vote, leading some in Labor and Kadima to characterize
Likud as a right-wing party. Pollsters note that a greater
percentage of Feiglin supporters went to the polls.
Netanyahu has a long road ahead to build up Likud after it
has been severely weakened by the exodus of some 15 of its
members to join Prime Minister Sharon's centrist Kadima
party, which, despite Sharon's December 18 mild stroke, still
leads in the polls by a wide margin. End Summary.

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Netanyahu At the Helm
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2. (C) Advisor to Likud MK Moshe Kahlon told Poloff December
20 that the Likud Party faction will meet December 20 and
will likely discuss whether to propose a party vote on
quitting the government and whether and how to proceed with
an initiative to recruit 61 MKs to form an alternative
government. Likud MK and former prime minister Netanyahu had
announced during his campaign that one of his first acts as
Likud Chairman would be to remove his party from Sharon's
government in order to separate Likud from Kadima and prepare
for elections. The Likud Central Committee would have to
approve such a move and, if approved, the remaining four
Likud ministers -- Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, Education
Minister Limor Livnat, Agricultural Minister Yisrael Katz,
and Health Minister Danny Naveh -- would then resign. Sharon
would then be left with only eight ministers out of an
original unity government comprised of more than 20
ministers. As of December 9, Sharon can appoint new
ministers from among Knesset members to fill vacated seats
with only Cabinet approval.


3. (C) Ministry of Justice Knesset Liaison Paz Barnett told
Poloff December 20 that the Likud ministers will most likely
prefer to remain in their ministry seats at least until after
the January 3 Likud Central Committee vote on the Likud
Knesset list. Likud ministers would rather run as ministers,
with the accompanying perks and prestige, than as simple MKs,
Barnett assessed. Education Minister Livnat is against
Likud's immediate resignation from the government, according
to press reports. Barnett said that vacating even more
ministries now would mean more work for Sharon, who already
is responsible for eight ministries.


4. (C) Embassy contacts in Likud told Poloff during the last
two weeks that an informal initiative peddled by some Likud
MKs, including Yuval Steinitz, Reuvin Rivlin, and Michael
Ratzon, to recruit 61 MKs to form an alternative government
would become a formal Likud effort after the December 19
Likud primaries. Steinitz told Poloff December 19 that the
initiative will move forward, but Embassy sources have
provided no evidence that this threat is credible (see
reftel). The Likud Party faction will likely strategize on
this initiative at its December 20 meeting. The initiative
would have to succeed by December 29, the date of the
Knesset's official dissolution.

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Feiglin Showing Taints Likud
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5. (C) To compete with Sharon for Israel's center, including
many current and former Likud supporters, Netanyahu will need
to associate himself more with Likud's center, represented by
Silvan Shalom, rather than its right, represented by MK Uzi
Landau, and settler leader Moshe Feiglin. Netanyahu has
reportedly already reached out to Shalom. After Netanyahu
was declared victor of the leadership race, Shalom announced
his commitment to remain in Likud and rebuild the party. The
Likud Central Committee is reportedly scheduled to meet
within a few days and could decide to place Shalom in the
number two slot on the Knesset list, after Netanyahu, giving
Shalom a reprieve from having to run in the Likud Central
Committee Knesset list vote.

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Kadima Still Strong, Despite Sharon's Stroke
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6. (U) Two polls released December 19 -- taken after
Sharon's stroke -- show that the Kadima party would still
draw the most support out of all the parties, winning 39-42
Knesset seats if elections were held today. Labor would
obtain 21-22 seats and Likud would only muster 13 seats.
Both polls were taken before the Likud leadership results
were in. In the Dahaf Polling Institute survey, 91 percent
responded that Sharon's stroke did not affect their decision
as to which party to support. A Teleseker Poll shows that if
Sharon is prevented from continuing to lead Kadima, support
for the Kadima party would decrease to 30 seats, but Kadima
would still be the strongest party.

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