SHARON'S HEALTH BECOMES ELECTION ISSUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007008 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREF IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL SUBJECT: SHARON'S HEALTH BECOMES ELECTION ISSUE REF: TEL AVIV 6920 Classified By: Charges d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Sharon's hospitalization December 18 for a mild stroke has raised questions of age and health in the current pre-election political climate and raised differing preliminary views as to what effect Sharon's health problems will have on the Kadima party's future. Political reactions to Prime Minister Sharon's hospitalization differed among political commentators and political parties, but all agreed that it is too early to tell the extent to which Sharon's health will affect the political landscape. As of December 19, the PM's health has stabilized, he would continue treatment to prevent blood clots, and could be released from the hospital by Tuesday, December 20. End Summary. -------------- Wake-up Call for Kadima? -------------- ¶2. (C) Political pundits and politicians assessed that it is too early to tell how the health problems of 77-year-old Sharon will play out in the upcoming elections, but they speculated about the effect of Sharon's stroke on public support for Kadima. Supporting the view that the party is more than Sharon, Mini Zemach, head of the Dahaf Polling Institute, wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth December 19 that, based on Dahaf studies, the public has "a great yearning" for a center party like Kadima. She assessed that some 47 percent of Kadima supporters intend to vote for Kadima for reasons other than Sharon. ¶3. (C) Kadima MK Majallie Whbee told Poloff emphatically December 19 that Kadima "is not a party of one person," but is rather composed of "very serious" people, who are experienced and have strong personalities. As examples, he mentioned Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, former Shin Bet head Avi Dichter, and Justice Minister Tzippi Livni. On the other hand, Likud MK Yuval Steinitz -- a strong supporter of Likud leadership contender Binyamin Netanyahu -- predicted to Poloff December 19 that because of Sharon's stroke, Kadima will lose five-to-ten Knesset seats from its current showing in the polls of 35 seats if elections were held today. Steinitz asserted that all of Kadima's power and lure is vested in Sharon and that the public will now wonder if they should support a candidate that will reach 80 years of age during his tenure. Likud MK Gilad Erdan, however, assessed to Poloff December 19 that Sharon's health may not have impact on the elections. He added, however, that Sharon may need to be more active in Kadima's campaign to demonstrate that he is in good health. ¶4. (C) Labor MK Yuli Tamir -- a close confidante of Labor Party leader Amir Peretz -- assessed to Poloff December 19 that Sharon's stroke would raise the issues of age and health of leadership candidates in the upcoming elections. She said that the Israeli public is now much more aware of these issues and is concerned about how the stress and demands of being prime minister could affect a candidate. People will look at the age of a party's leaders, like Sharon and octogenarian Shimon Peres, Tamir said, and "ask if this is leadership you can trust for the future." Going further, Tamir asserted that without Sharon as leader, Kadima would face a crisis and would "rapidly disappear." As a result, she said, former Kadima supporters would return to their original parties. Tamir asserted that no comparable leaders to Sharon exists in Kadima and that "a lot of people won't identify with (Ehud) Olmert." -------------- Sharon's Affect on Likud Primaries -------------- ¶5. (C) Likud MK Steinitz also predicted that Sharon's health problem will result in more support for Netanyahu in today's Likud elections. Likud voters will realize, Steinitz assessed, that given his experience, including as prime minister, Netanyahu is best-suited to be prime minister. Steinitz also acknowledged that some in Likud may seek to take advantage of Sharon's health episode and still work to recruit 61 MKs to form an alternative government before the Knesset's dissolution December 29 (reftel). In addition, Ha'aretz reported December 19 that senior Likud officials assess that Likud voters who supported Sharon will now return to Likud out of concern that Kadima's fate is dependent on Sharon's health. -------------- Worst Case Scenarios -------------- ¶6. (U) In a December 19 radio interview, Justice Minister Tzippi Livni asserted that chaos would not ensue in the event that Sharon could no longer serve as prime minister, noting that Israeli law stipulates that Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would serve as alternate in such a case. Livni also explained that in the worst case scenario that Sharon is incapacitated or dies, Kadima's Knesset list would be chosen by registered Kadima voters, rather than by Sharon. (Note: According to Israel's Basic Laws, the death of a prime minister is treated as if the government has resigned. The president would then have the discretion to ask a member of the Knesset to form a new government and he or she must then do so within a specified period of time which can be extended. If the prime minister is temporarily unable to perform his duties, an acting prime minister serves in his place (in this case, Ehud Olmert of Kadima),who is empowered to exercise all the powers granted to the prime minister for 100 days. If, after 100 days, the prime minister does not resume his duties, he is deemed to be permanently unable to exercise his office. In this case, the government is deemed to have resigned on the 101st day, and the president then begins the process of forming a new government. If no MK can form a new government within the stipulated timeframe, elections would be held. End Note.) ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ