ISRAELI PM'S MILITARY ADVISER REVIEWS REGION,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 007002

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IPA (MAHER)
PENTAGON FOR OSD (JAMES ANDERSON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2015
TAGS: PREL PINR PARM MARR MASS MNUC KPAL SY EG LE IR GOI EXTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI PM'S MILITARY ADVISER REVIEWS REGION,
SITUATION WITH PALESTINIANS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz. Reasons: 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) Major General Gadi Shamni -- Israeli PM Sharon's
military adviser -- told the Ambassador that the U.S. should
continue to lead the international community to
diplomatically pressure Iran to abandon its program. If a
military solution were required, Shamni said he believes the
U.S. could destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program in one
strike lasting a few hours, as long as the U.S. has accurate
intelligence on where various sites are located. On Israel's
northern border, Shamni reiterated the GOI's current position
that care should be taken not to push Lebanon or Syria too
far, lest Syria strike back through Hizballah rocket attacks.
Shamni said improved cooperation with Egypt along the
Egypt-Gaza border is forcing terrorists to attempt to
infiltrate Israel by sea, tunnels, and through the
less-well-defended Israel-Egypt border. Shamni expressed
concern that Gaza-based terrorists are trying to transfer
know-how and technology to West Bank cells, enabling those
cells to launch rockets against strategic targets in the
heart of Israel. END SUMMARY.

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ON IRAN: U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERT DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE
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2. (S) In their December 13 meeting, Shamni told the
Ambassador that the best way to deal with Iran now is through
diplomatic pressure. He urged the USG to continue its effort
to mobilize stronger, more effective international pressure
against Iran by drawing other countries into taking a
position on the country's weapons program. Shamni said
Israel is very worried about Iran, and claimed that Iran is
accelerating its program and will soon reach the "point of no
return." Without elaborating, he said that Israel began to
worry about statements from USG officials that were
interpreted to suggest that the U.S. was not committed to
getting Iran to abandon its weapons program. Shamni said A/S
Welch's comments on Iran during his recent visit reassured
the GOI. He asked the Ambassador not to take strong remarks
on Iran in the press attributed to Israeli politicians as
serious, saying that this is political posturing to a public
that takes defense issues seriously. He added, "There are
very few real experts on defense issues in Israel. My boss
is well known as one of them, and he is busy working."
Shamni told the Ambassador, however, that he believes the
U.S. could destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program in one air
strike in a matter of hours, as long as it has accurate
intelligence on where all the program's sites are located.

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ON SYRIA, LEBANON: "BE CAREFUL NOT TO PUSH TOO HARD."
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3. (C) In response to the Ambassador's questions, Shamni said
that the IDF has not moved any additional forces to the
northern border, and he has not seen any intelligence
indicating that Hizballah is preparing strikes against Israel
in the near future. Shamni reiterated the GOI's position
that international pressure is working on Syria, but that the
U.S. and others should be careful not to exert too much
pressure on Syria's regime, lest it collapse. Commenting on
the recent Hizballah incursions into Israel, Shamni said that
they involved a platoon of at least 20-30 fighters.

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COOPERATION WITH EGYPT BETTER, DRIVING TERRORISTS UNDERGROUND
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4. (C) Shamni said that Israel's cooperation with Egypt is
improving as a result of their joint efforts to stop
terrorists from crossing the Egypt-Gaza border. As a result
of the tightening up of the border, terrorists are being
forced to attempt infiltration by sea, through tunnels, and
across the Israel-Egypt border from the Sinai into the Negev
desert. Shamni noted that in the previous week, three
attempts to smuggle weapons and explosives into Israel by sea
had been foiled. In two of the attempts, the smugglers were
killed. In the third attempt, two smugglers were caught.
Shamni said that Palestinian security services told GOI
officials that they had managed to drag up one of the
smuggling bags that had sunk to the sea bottom, and
determined that the bags contained explosives. Shamni said
the Israeli Navy is discussing with the Palestinian Authority
the idea of having the Palestinian coastal police patrol the
shallow waters starting from the Egypt-Gaza border and
running along the full length of Gaza.

5. (C) Shamni said the Egyptians need to do more to prevent
infiltration across the Egypt-Israel border, or Israel may be
forced to change its rules of engagement to deal with the
threat of terrorist crossings. He stressed that Egypt and
Israel are both worried about the growing presence of global
jihadist terrorists in the Sinai. Without elaborating,
Shamni claimed that Israeli security personnel witnessed a
few attempts by suspected terrorists to cross from the Sinai
into Israel's Negev desert. He observed that from the Negev,
it is not too far for a terrorist to travel to reach the West
Bank. Shamni added that on the morning of the day of his
meeting with the Ambassador, the Egyptians caught six people
trying to infiltrate Gaza from the Sinai. He said
information so far indicates that one of the persons is a
Palestinian Islamic Jihad member from northern Gaza.


6. (C) Regarding the IDF's recent discovery of an unfinished
tunnel running from northern Gaza into Israel, Shamni said
that Palestinian terrorists had dug such tunnels in the north
before, but mainly to place and detonate explosives beneath
Israeli outposts when the IDF was in the Gaza Strip.
Otherwise, he said, tunnels were and are still being used
mainly by smugglers for black market activity. He observed
that digging and using tunnels was an expensive business,
underscoring that the terrorists are willing and able to pay
the price to execute their tasks. Shamni said the Egyptians
do not seem willing to arrest the smugglers, and noted that
Egyptian officials had recently "held a conference" with the
smugglers and tried to convince them to stop their activity.
Shamni asked, "Why didn't they arrest the smugglers right
there?" The Ambassador stressed that opening more crossings
between Gaza and Israel should take normal commercial
activity away from the tunnel business, and make it easier to
conclude that persons using tunnels are engaged in illegal
activity.

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ON GAZA-WEST BANK CONVOYS AND NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE PA
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7. (C) Shamni said that the GOI is worried about possible
terrorist incidents at the Rafah crossing between Egypt and
Gaza. Responding to the Ambassador's strong urging for the
opening of three convoy routes linking Gaza and the West
Bank, Shamni stressed that the GOI already decided to open
one convoy route from Gaza to Tarqumiya as part of a
feasibility study. If it works, then the GOI could consider
opening other routes. Shamni emphasized that Israel cannot
afford to have terrorist know-how and capabilities pass from
Gaza into the West Bank. He noted that 10-12 Syrian experts
on trajectory weapons had already been sighted in Gaza, and
warned that such capabilities -- if employed by terrorists in
the West Bank -- would put Israeli strategic targets at
serious risk. Shamni said, "If the Palestinians in the
West Bank are able to launch rockets from Judea and Samaria,
such a threat will demand a totally different response from
us. We cannot let it happen. If necessary, we will have the
IDF stay in cities in Judea and Samaria. We cannot allow
what has happened in Gaza to happen in the West Bank."


8. (C) Shamni said that Palestinian security forces could do
more to stop terrorists -- beginning by shutting down
"dual-use factories." He said that the security forces are
well equipped and manned, and attributed their inactivity to
a lack of will. Shamni suggested that recent arrests of
suspected terrorists by PA security forces were carried out
to get the U.S. to pressure Israel on the convoy issue, and
noted that despite the arrests, Qassam launches have
continued. Responding to the Ambassador's question, Shamni
said Israeli officials have given PA security services the
names of Qassam rocket operators, but the Palestinians have
not arrested anybody. Shamni said that over two months ago,
Israel gave to the Palestinian security services the names of
the terrorist cell members who launched the recent suicide
bombing attack in Netanya, and the security services did
nothing: "We did not see any serious efforts on their part,
and the outcome is the Netanya bombing."

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BIO NOTES ON MGEN GADI SHAMNI
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9. (S) MGEN Gadi Shamni was appointed as PM Sharon's military
adviser on August 16, and assumed the post on September 25.
He took over from MGEN Yoav Galant, who has been appointed
commander of the IDF's Southern Command. In his new role,
Shamni is privy to the political workings of PM Sharon's
inner circle, although he is very reluctant to talk politics.
As a military professional, he advises the PM on military
counterterrorism operations in the Gaza Strip and the West
Bank. Prior to assuming his role as Military Adviser, Shamni
served as the head of the IDF's Operations Directorate,
Commander of IDF forces in Gaza, and Commander of the IDF
Infantry and Paratroops Corps. Shamni has worked closely
with Embassy Tel Aviv's DAO since the early 1990s, is
reportedly pro-U.S., and approves of U.S. policy towards
Israel. Politically conservative, he is suspicious of Arab
countries and disapproves of U.S. aid to Egypt. Shamni
graduated from the U.S. Army's Special Warfare Qualification
Course in Fort Bragg, NC, and the Army War College in
Carlisle Barracks, PA. As a result of an injury sustained in
battle, Shamni speaks quietly and in a very low voice.
Although physically not commanding, Shamni knows how to push
and sustain a position, dodge attempts to draw out views, and
maintain control of a conversation.

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