PHANTOM EFFORT TOWARD NEW GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 006920 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2015 TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL SUBJECT: PHANTOM EFFORT TOWARD NEW GOVERNMENT Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) The Israeli press is decimating forests and spewing ink in its speculation over the claimed efforts of mostly unnamed -- but apparently desperate -- Likud MKs to garner support for a new government in the 15 days remaining before the Knesset's December 29 dissolution. For such an effort to succeed, even if claims of 54 to 56 supporters are correct, it would need support from Shas, Shinui or Labor, all of whose leaders and spokesmen have emphatically rejected the possibility. Those few sources willing to be identified with the movement have declined to name those MKs, other than Yuval Steinitz and Reuven Rivlin, whom they say are adherents. ¶2. (C) The Likud Party is severely weakened after the one-two punch of losing Likud Ministers Tzachi Hanegbi and Shaul Mofaz to Kadima in less than a week, on top of the 13 Likud MKs whom Ariel Sharon had already led to Kadima. In a Dahaf Institute poll released December 12, Likud would win just 11 Knesset seats if elections were held today -- down from the 38 it won in the last elections. In contrast, support for Prime Minister Sharon's Kadima Party continues to grow, with the poll showing it would win 41 seats if voting were held today. Staving off elections from March 28 until the originally scheduled November 2006 date by forming an alternative government would afford Likud seven more months to build up the party from its weakened state. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ