AMIR PERETZ: NOT YET READY FOR PRIME TIME?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 006552

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL KWBG KPAL IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: AMIR PERETZ: NOT YET READY FOR PRIME TIME?

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b
,d).


1. (C) Summary: Newly elected Labor Party Chairman Amir
Peretz told DAS Danin November 18 that he will focus his
upcoming election campaign on socio-economic issues, rather
than on peace and security. He stressed the importance of
the Labor Party serving as a real opposition party and added
that by November 20, Labor would quit the government. While
he said he supports disengagement, Peretz stressed that
Israel should work with a strong Palestinian partner on any
agreement concerning the West Bank. Peretz praised the
Secretary for having pushed the GOI and the Palestinian

SIPDIS
Authority (PA) to close an agreement during her recent visit.
When queried, Peretz did not address the details of the
roadmap, but commented only that "there are many roads to
peace." He also acknowledged that he does not have enough
information to take a position on whether Hamas should
participate in the PA elections. He did not rule out joining
Prime Minister Sharon if the latter left Likud to form a
third party, but was unwilling to accept a number two slot in
such a new grouping. (Comment: Peretz came across as a man
with broad visions, but shallow on detail. He discussed
security, terrorism, and peace with the Palestinians through
the prism of economics. He was not well-versed on the
roadmap, or on other security or terrorism issues, including
on Hamas. It is clear that Peretz will have to bone up on
these issues when up against the likes of security-maven
Sharon. End comment.) End Summary.

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Peretz: My Victory Strengthened Israeli Democracy
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2. (C) A relaxed and confident Amir Peretz -- ever wearing a
blue shirt without a tie -- met with DAS Danin and DCM Cretz
November 18 in the new Labor Party headquarters, located in a
poor section of Tel Aviv. A visiting AIPAC delegation was
just leaving his office. New advisor and former consultant
for Ben-Or Communications Oriella Ben-Zvi (originally from
the U.S., who has very close ties to the Israeli-Arab
community),Histadrut international relations advisor Avital
Shapiro, and Haigga Alon joined Peretz in the meeting. DCM
and Poloffs accompanied DAS Danin. Peretz spoke in basic
conversational English, turning frequently to his staff for
help in translating more complex concepts. Peretz began the
discussion by saying that the election campaign for prime
minister, in his mind, has already started, even though Prime
Minister Sharon has not set an election date. He noted that
while he prefers a March date, he told Sharon in their
November 17 meeting that he would accept a date amenable to
Sharon -- from the end of February to the end of March.
Stressing the important role that the opposition plays in a
healthy democracy, Peretz said repeatedly that the Labor
Party once again has become a real opposition party. He
added that Labor will leave the coalition on Sunday, November

20. The Labor Party could not advocate changing the
government and still remain in the government, Peretz
stressed. Peretz asserted that his victory as Labor Party
Chairman strengthened Israeli democracy by placing Labor
firmly in the opposition.


3. (C) In response to the DCM's query as to why Peretz
believes he won the Labor Party primaries, Peretz, searching
momentarily for the right words, said that Labor voters "did
not want to be left in the freezer." (Comment: Peretz likely
meant that he believes Labor voters were ready for some type
of change, and that they were tired of the status quo under
octogenarian Shimon Peres. End comment.) He commented that
maybe a Peres victory would have been better for the USG
since Peres would have preserved Sharon's government. At
that point, Peretz advisor Ben-Zvi added quickly that the
Peretz camp "views (the Israeli) relationship with the U.S.
as critical."

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Possible Coalitions
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4. (C) In response to DCM's query whether Peretz would
consider joining a coalition with a new party formed by
Sharon, Peretz stressed the need for an opposition to sustain
Israeli democracy, but did not directly rule out such a
possibility. "Either I lead (the government)," Peretz
underscored, "or I lead the opposition." He added that he
knows this is not a popular approach, and that it might even
cost Labor several Knesset seats, but added that it serves to
strengthen Labor's credibility. Peretz advisor Alon added
that Peretz "will bring accountability back to politics."

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Peretz Campaign To Focus on Economy
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5. (C) Peretz asserted that the upcoming election campaign
would, for the first time in Israel's history, focus on
socio-economic issues rather than on security issues. Peace
and security issues, Peretz said, should be addressed in a
professional and logical manner, not within the heat and
emotions of an election campaign. "The (Israeli) people are
ready to be a normal country," Peretz underlined, "and to
vote on economic issues." To back up his claim, Peretz said
that in a recent poll, 48% of those surveyed said that in the
next elections Israelis will vote based on economic and
social issues, with 38% saying they will vote on security
issues. Claiming that 40% of Israeli workers do not earn
enough to pay taxes, Peretz emphasized that the critical
issue will be the gap between rich and poor.

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Security and Terror
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6. (C) "I am a (man of peace) more than any other," Peretz
remarked. He noted that he had been mayor of Sderot, where
"all the Qassam missiles fall," and that he lived there for
50 years. He underlined that, despite the security situation
in Sderot, "when you ask the people (of Sderot) what they
fear most, missiles or unemployment, they will say
unemployment." Peretz said that as far back as 1984, when he
became active in Labor, he advocated for the creation of an
independent Palestinian state. "Time is working against us,"
Peretz asserted, noting that by waiting so long to build a
Palestinian state, a new generation of Palestinians had been
raised "who only know Israel through guns." Peretz said
that the average Israeli feels that the peace being sought
today is not for them, but rather "the product for rich
Israelis." Peretz said he is trying to show people that if
peace is achieved, their lives will be better.


7. (C) Peretz highlighted that the disengagement plan was
very important and that he supported it. "The Bush
Administration should know," Peretz asserted, "that
disengagement was a security step, not a peace measure." He
said that Israelis do not believe that disengagement brought
any change in the relationship between Israel and the
Palestinians. He asserted, however, that while disengagement
could work in Gaza or in Lebanon, where it is a matter of
"only" returning to the internationally recognized frontiers,
when addressing the West Bank, dealing with a Palestinian
partner is essential. He said that he "doesn't buy" the
argument of the need to wait until the Palestinians are
democratic before engaging with them. "If a country like
Saudi Arabia came to Israel to talk about peace, would we
turn them away (because they are not democratic)?" Peretz
asked. Danin stressed that it was important for Peretz to
understand that the U.S. is committed to the promotion of
democracy throughout the region. Peretz called on the "free
world" to address world poverty, which he asserted is the
"greenhouse" of terrorism.


8. (C) In response to Danin's query about the Israeli
response if the PA does not fight terror, Peretz responded
that he does not believe the PA will neglect fighting terror.
Peretz asserted that Palestinian terrorism is also against
PA President Mahmud Abbas. In response to the DCM's query
about how Peretz will address security issues in his
campaign, Peretz downplayed the importance of addressing
these issues, commenting that "Israel is full of generals who
can take care of security." He characterized his generation
-- those in their 40s and 50s -- as savvy about security,
having served in the military. He stressed that people
rather want to hear about the link between peace and their
quality of life.

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On U.S. Efforts and the Roadmap
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9. (C) Turning to the Secretary's recent visit to Israel,
Peretz underlined that he views the Secretary's achievement
in convincing the GOI and the PA to close an agreement very
important. He praised the Secretary for "tying together the
ends" and having provided the necessary push to both sides.
When asked about his views on the roadmap, Peretz commented
that "there are many roads to peace," and acknowledged that
he "cannot comment on the details of the roadmap." He
stressed the importance that Israel have a strong partner in
the peace process and that "time is working against us."
Peretz added that as a "negotiator" he believes it is a
mistake to conclude an agreement wherein your partner loses
everything. In his role as labor union Histadrut negotiator,
he always made sure that both sides were left with something
of what they wanted. It is important, Peretz said, to show
the Palestinians that they stand to lose by not entering into
an agreement with Israel.

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Hamas
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10. (C) In response to Danin's query as to Peretz's position
on Hamas' participation in the January 2006 Palestinian
Legislative Council elections, Peretz acknowledged that he
does not have enough information on the issue to respond. He
added, however, that, in the end, the Israeli people will
have to decide how they view Hamas participation in any
future PA government. The argument is split, Peretz said,
between those who argue that Hamas participation in the
political process could make Hamas more moderate and those
who argue that it could make the PA more extreme. "I don't
know the answer to this question," Peretz repeated, "but
(this) is a very important issue," he said. He said that the
Israeli people could view Hamas participation in the PA
government as a "get" (divorce) between the Israelis and the
Palestinians. Hamas participation could cost Abbas his
legitimacy among Israelis, Peretz said.

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Comment
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11. (C) Peretz, clearly enjoying his new status as Labor's
new leader, is very personable, warm, and a relaxed
interlocutor. He clearly enjoyed the meeting, and did not
seem uncomfortable exercising his English. He comes across
as an advocate for the blue-collar sector and the average
man-in-the-street, who speaks their language and knows what
they really want. Peretz is clearly more comfortable talking
about the socio-economic faults in Israel, rather than the
details of security issues and terrorism. He clearly has a
significant learning curve before he can be a real contender
against Sharon when Israelis ask the tough questions on the
PA, Hamas, and terrorism. He had ample opportunity to expand
on security issues in Hebrew, but was either unable or
unwilling to do so.


12. (U) DAS Danin cleared this message.



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