C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000654

SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ABRAMS/DANIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2015
TAGS: PREL KWBG IS SY ISRAEL RELATIONS PEACE PROCESS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: URI SAGUY ON NEED FOR U.S. LEADERSHIP IN THE
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN TRACK, AND FOR ISRAELI ENGAGEMENT WITH
SYRIA


Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)
.

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No Israel-PA Progress Without U.S. Leadership
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1. (C) Retired IDF intelligence chief MG (ret) Uri Saguy told
the Ambassador February 2 that Israel needs active U.S.
involvement "desperately" to move forward with the
Palestinians after disengagement because the Israeli
political system is "stuck," and the current coalition is
heading toward a "deadlock." While he was not optimistic
that Israel and the PA could bridge the vast gap between them
any time soon, he stressed that the two parties, led by the
United States, must nevertheless work to narrow their
differences. As the parties will not make progress on their
own, he contended, the U.S. must "dictate" its views.


2. (C) Saguy said he believed that most Israelis would
welcome U.S. statements giving greater depth to the U.S.
vision of a final status agreement. Israeli prime ministers,
he said, pay great deference to U.S. views, especially when
forcefully delivered. Ordinary Israelis, for their part,
would accept U.S. advocacy of final status arrangements,
e.g., along the lines of the Clinton parameters, because
"most reasonable people" are looking for a solution to the
conflict with the Palestinians that would allow them to lead
normal lives. Saguy cautioned, however, that he was not
confident about his ability to read Israeli public opinion.
As a seventh-generation native of the land, he said that he
is now part of a "minority, WASP" class that is no longer
influential in Israeli political life. He said his pragmatic
views do not resonate with many fellow Israelis, such as
settlers, who "get very emotional about national rights." To
make such Israelis "rational," the "polite" outside influence
of the United States is necessary.

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Dealing with Syria: "Hatred is not a policy"
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3. (C) While allowing that he does not like the Syrian regime
and that Syria must "pay a penalty" for its recent behavior,
Saguy said that no good is served by driving the SARG "into a
corner." Peace for Israel ultimately requires resolving all
territorial disputes with the Arab world. Israel's long-term
interests thus require it to seek ways to build towards good
relations with Syria, even though the GOI has no impetus to
negotiate with Syria now. "Hatred is no policy," he said.
An Israeli dialogue with Syria could serve to "enlighten" the
SARG, and to get it to use whatever influence it has on Iran
to improve Iranian behavior.

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