LABOR'S LEADERSHIP RACE CONTINUES TO FIZZLE AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 005614 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015 TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL SUBJECT: LABOR'S LEADERSHIP RACE CONTINUES TO FIZZLE AS MOST SEE PERES AS OBVIOUS CHOICE REF: A. TEL AVIV 3894 ¶B. TEL AVIV 3891 Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's September 11 withdrawal from the Labor Party leadership race further consolidates support for Shimon Peres in party primaries to be held either November 8 or 9, with the final date still to be determined. Polls, including on September 9, consistently show Peres in a dominant position, with the latest giving Peres some 41 percent support among the Labor membership, outstripping contenders Matan Vilna'i, Amir Peretz, and Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who together poll some 36 percent. Barak's show of support is likely to send most of his 14 percent following to the Peres camp. Peretz, Vilna'i, and Ben-Eliezer are continuing their candidacies for now. ¶2. (C) Labor MK Yuli Tamir, a strong Peretz supporter, told Poloff September 12 that she is confident that primaries will take place because, she said, second-ranked Peretz will stay in the race. She could not predict whether Vilna'i or Ben-Eliezer would maintain their candidacies. One media pundit argued that Vilna'i and Ben-Elizer will drop out due to their weak showings in the polls and that a consolidated Peres camp will then pressure Peretz to withdraw as well. Former Labor Party Chair Amram Mitzna, who headed Barak's campaign, told Poloff September 12 that he could not predict whether any of the other candidates would drop out. Mitzna told Poloff that the bottom line is that Peres is certain to win the party leadership. ¶3. (C) A poll of Labor Party members published in Yedioth Ahronoth September 9 showed Peres with 41 percent support, with Amir Peretz a distant second with 16 percent. Under Labor Party rules, in a three- or four-person race, Peres can win a first-round victory if he obtains at least 41 percent of the vote and no one else does so. If there is a second round, Tamir predicted, it will be a race between Peres and Peretz. Tamir conceded that Peres has a strong lead, partly due to the fact that he is the incumbent leader, and admitted that Peres "has a stronger hold" than Peretz over the Labor Party membership. While she acknowledged that Peres is the stronger candidate, she commented that "there could be quite a lot of surprises (in the run-up to the primaries)." She expressed the hope that more Labor party members will feel "enough is enough" with Peres, and start to ask what is good for the party. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** KURTZER