LABOR'S LEADERSHIP RACE CONTINUES TO FIZZLE AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 005614

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: LABOR'S LEADERSHIP RACE CONTINUES TO FIZZLE AS
MOST SEE PERES AS OBVIOUS CHOICE

REF: A. TEL AVIV 3894

B. TEL AVIV 3891

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's September 11
withdrawal from the Labor Party leadership race further
consolidates support for Shimon Peres in party primaries to
be held either November 8 or 9, with the final date still to
be determined. Polls, including on September 9, consistently
show Peres in a dominant position, with the latest giving
Peres some 41 percent support among the Labor membership,
outstripping contenders Matan Vilna'i, Amir Peretz, and
Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who together poll some 36 percent.
Barak's show of support is likely to send most of his 14
percent following to the Peres camp. Peretz, Vilna'i, and
Ben-Eliezer are continuing their candidacies for now.


2. (C) Labor MK Yuli Tamir, a strong Peretz supporter, told
Poloff September 12 that she is confident that primaries will
take place because, she said, second-ranked Peretz will stay
in the race. She could not predict whether Vilna'i or
Ben-Eliezer would maintain their candidacies. One media
pundit argued that Vilna'i and Ben-Elizer will drop out due
to their weak showings in the polls and that a consolidated
Peres camp will then pressure Peretz to withdraw as well.
Former Labor Party Chair Amram Mitzna, who headed Barak's
campaign, told Poloff September 12 that he could not predict
whether any of the other candidates would drop out. Mitzna
told Poloff that the bottom line is that Peres is certain to
win the party leadership.


3. (C) A poll of Labor Party members published in Yedioth
Ahronoth September 9 showed Peres with 41 percent support,
with Amir Peretz a distant second with 16 percent. Under
Labor Party rules, in a three- or four-person race, Peres can
win a first-round victory if he obtains at least 41 percent
of the vote and no one else does so. If there is a second
round, Tamir predicted, it will be a race between Peres and
Peretz. Tamir conceded that Peres has a strong lead, partly
due to the fact that he is the incumbent leader, and admitted
that Peres "has a stronger hold" than Peretz over the Labor
Party membership. While she acknowledged that Peres is the
stronger candidate, she commented that "there could be quite
a lot of surprises (in the run-up to the primaries)." She
expressed the hope that more Labor party members will feel
"enough is enough" with Peres, and start to ask what is good
for the party.

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