LIKUD PRIMARIES NOT A FAIT ACCOMPLI

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 005324

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: LIKUD PRIMARIES NOT A FAIT ACCOMPLI

REF: TEL AVIV 5239

Classified By: DCM Gene A. Cretz for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The August 29 decision by a Likud Party
internal "court" has kicked off a process that could result
in early party primaries, but -- press reports
notwithstanding -- does not compel them to be held. The
court decision validates a petition by supporters of Bibi
Netanyahu demanding that the party Central Committee meet
within 30 days to make a "decision" on the petitioners'
specific call for primaries to be held within 60 days of the
Central Committee meeting. The 60-day period is specified by
the petitioners, not by any Likud rule. Likud leaders have
decided to use the Committee's scheduled September 25-26
session to address the issue, which means that any primaries
would probably be held about November 25, allowing for the
full month of Israeli holidays in October and the need for
logistical and campaign preparations. The court decision
does not force the Central Committee to actually call
primaries, but, under the Likud constitution, all Central
Committee "decisions" must be by vote of its some 3,000
members. Were all that to happen, and were Netanyahu
successful in securing the dissolution of the govenment,
elections would likely take place 90 days later, about
February 24. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Sharon supporter and Central Committee Chairman
Tzachi Hanegbi had spent the past week trying to stave off
the petition attempt, which was supported by the required 20
percent of Central Committee members. Sharon supporters say
that they will appeal the court decision. Netanyahu
supporters are riding high on poll numbers showing Netanyahu
defeating Sharon in a two-way race for the party leadership,
and are hoping for dissolution of the Knesset in order to
force early elections with, they hope, Netanyahu as the new
head of Likud. Observers say this is the first time in
Israeli political history that a party has sought to oust its
own sitting prime minister -- a full year before scheduled
elections.


3. (C) Sharon will use the month until the Central Committee
session both to rally support for his continued leadership
and to prevent having primaries called at all. He will try
to demonstrate that his disengagement has been the right
course for the country, show that he is not moving ahead on
what the right considers further concessions to the
Palestinians -- and the U.S. administration -- and, as he has
already charged, paint Netanyahu as an unreliable, panicky
leader who cannot be entrusted with Israel's future.


4. (C) Although a majority within the Central Committee has
opposed disengagement, the decision on whether to hold
primaries could go either way. A current internal Central
Committee poll shows Sharon and Netanyahu tied with 32
percent each, with right winger Uzi Landau taking an
additional 17 percent that he could send Bibi's way in a
pinch. Sharon nonetheless is a sitting prime minister,
basking in international praise for his disengagement and
supported by a majority of Israelis. In addition, he will
have just returned from an anticipated "victory lap" in New
York. Under his leadership, Likud has control of 40 Knesset
seats, a full third of the body, and Sharon has survived
challenges from the left and the right to pass a responsible
budget and carry out disengagement. No one on the political
scene predicts that Likud will be able to retain 40 seats
under anyone's leadership, even Sharon's, but the predicted
numbers fall quickly in a Netanyahu leadership scenario. In
addition, Sharon benefits from the fact that, under Likud
party rules, some 17 current Likud parliamentarians, Sharon
opponents reportedly among them, are prohibited by internal
party rules from seeking reelection. By working against
Sharon, they could cut short their terms by nearly a year.


5. (C) Coalition partner Labor will be watching carefully
developments up to and including the September Central
Committee vote. If Sharon looks to be gaining strength,
Labor, itself beset by the leadership aspirations of numerous
contenders, could opt to remain in the coalition, even up to
the regularly scheduled November 2006 national elections, in
the hope of securing more disengagement-type action from
Sharon. If Netanyahu appears to be winning, or if Sharon
appears to be stonewalling on further steps in the peace
process, perhaps to gain right-wing Likud support, Labor
could leave the coalition to separate itself from the Likud
in time for anticipated early elections.

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