ISRAELI MOD DISCUSSES DISENGAGEMENT AND GROWING NUMBER OF TERRORIST ATTACKS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004403

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2015
TAGS: PREL, KWBG, KPAL, PTER, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI MOD DISCUSSES DISENGAGEMENT AND GROWING
NUMBER OF TERRORIST ATTACKS

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (S) Summary: Israel suffered three attacks within the
span of one hour in an effort to break the calm ("tahdiya")
and derail the impending disengagement, according to
Brigadier General Eitan Dangot, Military Secretary to Defense
Minister Mofaz, who met with the Ambassador and Acting DATT
on July 13. Hizballah fired at the IDF post at Rosh Hanikra,
causing no injuries. A PIJ member drove a truck laden with
gas canisters into the Shavei Shomron settlement, injuring
only himself. A PIJ suicide bomber detonated an explosive
charge outside a Netanya mall, killing four and wounding 91
Israelis. As a result the IDF resumed operations against PIJ
in the West Bank in efforts to prevent future terror attacks
on Israel, as well as to stop the increasing violence prior
to the disengagement. As disengagement approaches, Dangot
explained, the potential negative impact of successful
attacks increases, particularly in its effect on domestic
public opinion and support. Dangot provided a summary of the
July 12 Security Cabinet meeting, and noted that additional
meetings are scheduled to take place this month. The Prime
Minister expressed his vision that the disengagement would
result in the end of the military occupation of Gaza. The
cabinet approved an MoD request to solicit the international
community for funding for crossing facilities; and the
cabinet agreed that areas evacuated within the northern West
Bank would remain classified as "area C" for the near term.
End summary.

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PIJ CAMPAIGN?
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2. (S) Dangot provided a brief summary of the July 12
attacks. Dangot stated that all three attacks took place
within the span of one hour, and were likely linked. PIJ, he
stated, is attempting to provoke a strong Israeli response in
efforts to destroy the "tahdiya" or calm. On July 12:

-- A gunman fired several rounds at the IDF position at Rosh
Hanikra. The IDF did not respond, he stated, and no one was
injured in the attack. The IDF noted that Hizballah had
vacated posts along the southern border with Israel prior to
the attack, suggesting the link to Hizballah.

-- A Palestinian drove a small pickup truck loaded with gas
canisters into the Shavei Shomron settlement. The driver had
waited for someone to exit the settlement and drove through
the open gate. He detonated the explosive device near the
settlement's kindergarten, which was no longer in session.
The Palestinian was severely burned; there were no other
casualties. The IDF, Dangot stated, believes that wanted PIJ
leader Louis Saadi or his deputy was involved in planning the
attack.

-- A suicide bomber detonated an explosive charge near a mall
in Netanya, killing four Israelis, severely wounding at least
six others, and causing a total of 91 to seek medical
treatment. PIJ claimed responsibility for the attack. The
IDF believes that Tulkarm area PIJ commander Louay Saadi was
behind the attack. Saadi, who masterminded the Stage Club
attack in Tel Aviv on 25 February, is in hiding. Saadi's
cell operates in the Tulkarm area, including the villages of
Atil, Ilar and Saida.

3. (S) Dangot stated that PIJ-sponsored attacks are
increasing. In Gaza, the IDF has tracked PIJ connected
incidents for the past weeks and has noted a marked increase
in mortar, Qassam rocket, explosive charge and shooting
attack against Israelis. These attacks, he explained, are
not the work of breakaway PIJ cells, but part of a campaign
orchestrated by the PIJ headquarters in Damascus. Damascus
is pushing the field to conduct attacks against Israel, said
Dangot.

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PA Inaction
--------------

4. (S) The IDF received a number of indications that Saadi
was planning terror attacks, and passed Saadi's name to the
PA several months ago. The GOI requested that PA Minister of
Interior Nasir Yusif arrest him. To date, said Dangot, the
PA has taken little action against the organization. In
Tulkarm, eleven PIJ fugitives declined to sign a declaration
ending terror attacks and refused to surrender their weapons
to the PA. In response, the PA centralized them in Tulkarm
and provided them shelter at night. Moreover, Dangot noted
that Mahmud Abbas failed to clearly blame PIJ, during his
condemnation of yesterday's terror attack.

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Time Running Out
--------------

5. (S) As disengagement approaches, Dangot explained, the
potential negative impact of successful attacks increases,
particularly in its effect on domestic public opinion and
support. Moreover, such attacks decrease Israel's maneuver
space, and make risk-taking in security areas more difficult,
as in the case of Bethlehem, with its close proximity to
Jerusalem. Finally, the IDF does not want to begin
disengagement under the back-drop of increasing violence.

6. (S) During discussions on transferring security
responsibility, the IDF warned the PA that it would reenter
areas transferred to PA security responsibility if the
Palestinians failed to control attacks on Israelis emanating
from them. As a result, the GOI decided last night to take
action against the PIJ, acting where the PA does not. Early
on July 13, the IDF temporarily reentered Tulkarm, and began
a series of arrests. During the initial stages of the
operation, PA security forces fired on, and lightly wounded,
two soldiers. When returning fire, the IDF killed two PA
security forces members.

--------------
Security Cabinet Meeting
--------------

7. (S) Dangot provided a summary of the previous day's
Security Cabinet meeting, stating the group would hold two or
three more meetings on disengagement issues over the next
month. During the July 12 discussions, the Prime Minister
explained his vision that disengagement would mean the end of
the military occupation in Gaza. Once completed, there would
be no symbols of military occupation, including IDF presence
on the Philadelphi Strip.

8. (S) The Security Cabinet discussed potential security
arrangements concerning the ports ) sea, air, and land )
but no decisions were made. It was clear, Dangot stated,
that the IDF would, over time, leave the Philadelphi Strip,
following assessment of the effectiveness of the Egyptian
border deployment, and the effectiveness of the PA security
forces in combating smuggling and cross-border attacks.
Dangot stated that Egypt and Israel are still discussing the
"responsibility" clause, which is holding up agreement on the
deployment of border guards.

9. (S) The Security Cabinet looked also at several options
concerning the Rafah crossing ) leave it as is, shift cargo
operations to Nitsana, or move to Kerem Shalom. No decisions
were made. Dangot stated that the GOI would look at third
party supervision of customs and security arrangements, using
a staged or incremental approach that would help build mutual
confidence and trust.

10. (S) The Prime Minister intends to cancel the military
government in Gaza, Dangott said, but needs a task force from
Justice, Defense and others to explore new legal rulings on
how to proceed with the Palestinians. Concerning the passage
issue, the Security Cabinet agreed to an interim solution of
using truck convoys between Gaza and the West Bank for
door-to-door delivery of cargo in some areas. A similar
system, using busses to transport people could also be
adopted. Dangot added that details were not examined; a team
is needed to study possible long-term solutions such as a
train, sunken road, tunnel, etc.

11. (S) MoD Director-General Amos Yaron briefed the Security
Cabinet on the 3-4 terminals in Gaza and some 38 crossing
points for the West Bank, receiving Cabinet permission to
solicit funding, estimated at some 500 million USD initially,
from the international community. The cabinet also decided
that the Gaza borders would be based on the 1994 map, and
would include the territorial exchanges made in 1949-50.

12. (S) Concerning the West Bank, the Security Cabinet
decided that there would be no change of status for the four
areas containing the evacuated settlements for the time
being. These areas would remain classified as "C" zones.
However, the GOI would continue to coordinate issues with the
PA concerning road construction or other issues. The
Ambassador suggested that Israel carefully examine its
position on Rafah and the Philadelphi Strip, to ensure that
it had an executable exit strategy.

13. (S) Comment: Israel Defense Intelligence assesses that
the Damascus PIJ headquarters is behind the Tuesday attacks,
but continues to sift through information in search of a
"smoking gun." Dangot was careful to explain that renewed
IDF operations would continue in the West Bank, but indicated
that operations in the Gaza strip would be restrained in
efforts not to fuel a new spiral of violence. Nonetheless,
expanded operations against PIJ risk accidental killings of
bystanders, which would surely fuel a new round of violence.
Note: Meeting took place before Hamas attack that killed one
in Nativ Ha'asara.
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KURTZER