C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002936

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2015
TAGS: PREL GOI EXTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS MILITARY RELATIONS
SUBJECT: SENATOR LIEBERMAN'S MAY 2 MEETING WITH GENERAL
KUPPERWASSER

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Senator Lieberman and Ambassador Kurtzer
met on May 2 with the Israeli Defense Forces' Chief of
Military Intelligence Production Division, General
Kupperwasser. The discussion focused on the Palestinian
security situation, including the PA's dismantling of terror
networks and preparations for upcoming elections. Senator
Lieberman also discussed the situation in Lebanon after
Syrian withdrawal, and developments in Iran. End Summary.

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The PA & Terror Networks
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2. (C) General Kupperwasser repeatedly expressed his
disappointment with the lack of action by the Palestinian
Authority (and President Mahmoud Abbas in particular) in
dismantling terrorist organizations such as Islamic Jihad and
Hamas. Kupperwasser said that there was a need for a change
of ethos amongst the Palestinian leadership. Regarding the
most recent terrorist bombing in Tel Aviv of the Stage
nightclub on February 25th, Kupperwasser commented that the
GOI should have been more vocal about demanding a crackdown
on terrorist networks immediately after the bombing.

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PA Elections & Disengagement
--------------


3. (C) Responding to a question from Senator Lieberman,
Kupperwasser stated his concern that Abbas will spend too
much political capital in an effort to convince Hamas to
delay the July 2005 local elections. In Kupperwasser's
assessment the PA needed to have Hamas ask for the delay in
elections (rather than simply announcing a delay themselves).
Kupperwasser complained that Abbas paid too high a price for
Hamas involvement in the current tahadiya (period of calm).
In exchange for Hamas involvement in the tahadiya,
Kupperwasser claimed Abbas promised not to collect arms from
Hamas, not to arrest Hamas members, and to allow Hamas to act
as a "parallel authority" in Gaza. Kupperwasser posited that
Abbas might be willing to let Hamas become involved in
disengagement planning committees if they cooperate in
delaying elections. However, he surmised, Hamas is unlikely

to ask for a delay in elections and meanwhile join a "unity
government" with Fatah because such a move could ruin their
reputation as an "uncorrupted" political alternative in the
minds of the Palestinian people.


4. (C) Senator Lieberman and Ambassador Kurtzer both asked
General Kupperwasser if he believed that Abbas is a
fundamentally different leader than Arafat. Kupperwasser
agreed that he was, but cautioned that he is still waiting
for Abbas to "tell the truth about the situation" and "win
the trust of the Israeli people." Kupperwasser estimated
that at this delicate political moment Abbas would only do
what he "needs to" before his visit to Washington DC. There
is no replacement for Abbas in Kupperwasser's estimation,
however "we need something more from him than Hag Sameach"
(referring to the briefing held by President Abbas in
Ramallah before Passover in which he wished the Israeli
people a happy holiday).

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...And up North?
--------------


5. (C) Turning to a discussion of the situation in Lebanon
and Syria, General Kupperwasser claimed that "people are
still trying to understand that Syria is out of Lebanon--most
of all the Syrians themselves." However, far from being
upbeat about the prospects for ending terrorism in Lebanon,
Kupperwasser claimed that one crossing is still open "for
military use" and that Iran was transporting weapons each day
through this passage to Hizballah (after they are flown in
from Iran to Damascus). Kupperwasser assessed the potential
of imminent return on Saturday (May 7) of opposition
politician Michel Aoun to send a shock wave through Lebanese
politics. While pessimistic about the status of combating
terrorist activities in Lebanon, Kupperwasser claimed that if
elections are free and fair, it is possible for the
opposition to win in Lebanese elections. Predicting that
this would lead to the end of Syrian-Lebanese military ties,
Kupperwasser maintained that terrorists and weapons are being
transferred into the refugee camps in Lebanon now, in case
such shipments are not possible in the future. Kupperwasser
praised American involvement in forging ahead with UNSC
Resolution 1559, because "Syria only cares what the United
States thinks."

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Iran
--------------


6. (C) Senator Lieberman queried General Kupperwasser about
his views on Iranian nuclear intentions. While General
Kupperwasser would not predict a timeline for Iranian
completion of a working nuclear weapon, he restated the
Israeli view that the Iranian nuclear program is a military
project. He further surmised that the leadership will
continue to play the game (of EU-3 dialogue and engagement)
until the moment of truth: referral to the UN Security
Council. Senator Lieberman questioned why Security Council
review would have any impact in the regime; Kupperwasser
replied that Iran does not want to become a pariah state.
Kupperwasser concluded should the Iranian nuclear program be
referred to the UNSC, it would endanger the internal
stability of the regime - and the regime would choose
survival over a nuclear weapon.


7. (U) Senator Lieberman did not have a chance to clear this
message.

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