FM SHALOM TO CODEL DREIER ON THE PALESTINIANS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002054

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2015
TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV IS GOI EXTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS ISRAEL RELATIONS
SUBJECT: FM SHALOM TO CODEL DREIER ON THE PALESTINIANS,
SYRIA, IRAQ, IRAN, AND THE TRAVEL ADVISORY

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told CODEL
Dreier that the situation is better than 3-4 months ago
because Mahmud Abbas is more moderate than Yasir Arafat. He
also opined that "something is happening" in Egypt, Jordan,
Libya, and Lebanon, and concluded that these countries want
to be on the side of the United States. Shalom predicted that
Hizballah will try to paint a picture of a new civil war in
Lebanon, but said Syria must leave regardless and must disarm
the group. On Iraq, he said he hopes the coalition will
succeed so that democracy will spread to other countries in
the region. He warned that Iran will have the knowledge to
build a nuclear weapon in six months, and must therefore be
stopped. Shalom also requested that the U.S. at least change
the level of its travel advisory to Israel if it is not going
to cancel it. End summary.

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Things Are Looking Up
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2. (C) Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told CODEL Dreier on
March 28 that he believes progress can be made with the
Palestinians. He opined that Mahmud Abbas is "much better
than Arafat" because his statements are more moderate, he has
reduced incitement on the television and radio, and he has
stopped the firing of missiles to Israel. He mentioned,
however, that Abbas has not yet made a strategic decision to
dismantle terrorist infrastructure. Incitement still exists
in textbooks, and the Palestinian Authority has not shut down
factories, labs, and tunnels, nor confiscated illegal
weapons. Shalom said Abbas can and should fight terrorist
infrastructure because otherwise he will be putting the
future of peace "in the hands of terrorists."


3. (C) Shalom continued that, regardless, things are better
than 3-4 months ago, and Israel lately has seen visitors it
had not seen in years. He explained that at the recent
opening of Yad Vashem, for example, 41 delegations came from
all over the world because they believe "something is
happening." Shalom said this does not relate to just the
Israelis and Palestinians, however. It also relates to
Saddam Hussein being gone, Muammar Qadhafi changing his
attitude, Yasir Arafat dying, and the Lebanese asking for
freedom. He explained that Egypt and Jordan have returned
their Ambassadors after four and a half years, that the
Jordanian Foreign Minister recently visited, and that Israel
is negotiating with Oman, Qatar, Morocco, and Tunisia to
normalize relations with the GOI. Shalom concluded that
"many want to change to be on the good guy's side, the U.S."
He cautioned the delegation, however, to be careful with
extremists like the Palestine Islamic Jihad, Hamas,
Hizballah, Syrian, and Iran, who will undermine progress with
the Palestinians and Lebanon.

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Resolution 1559
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4. (C) On Resolution 1559, Shalom opined that Syria will
have no choice but to disarm groups like Hizballah. He said
that although Syria has done bad things, such as helping
Hamas and Hizballah, undermining stability in Iraq, and
sheltering Hussein's cronies, the most important thing right
now is to get it out of Lebanon. Shalom predicted that
Hizballah will try to paint a picture of instability and a
new civil war, but this is because it is afraid to lose
control and of being disarmed by a new Lebanese government.

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Iraq
--------------


5. (C) Shalom commented that Iraq looks unstable, but he
said he hopes that it can overcome the difficulties it faces.
He said there are rumors that a Shia regime will bring more
religion to the people, but he said he believes Iraq and
Sistani are different from Iran. Shalom told the CODEL that
he wants the coalition to succeed in Iraq so that other
countries in the region will move to democratic systems.

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Iran
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6. (C) Shalom warned that Iran is "still trying to build its
bomb," and that it has only agreed to a temporary suspension,
not a cessation of development. He explained that September
11 has shown terrorism is not just a problem in Israel, and
everyone should be concerned about Iran's weapons with ranges
capable of reaching Madrid, London, and Moscow. Shalom said
Iran must be stopped because it will have the knowledge to
build a nuclear weapon in six months. He suggested that the
IAEA have a special session prior to its scheduled session in
June, otherwise Iran will not have an incentive to stop its
weapons development.

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Travel Advisory
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7. (C) Shalom reminded the CODEL that 13 congressmen
recently wrote a letter to Secretary Rice asking her to
cancel the travel advisory for Israel. He said the time had
come to bring a positive signal to the peace process, and
canceling the advisory would be such a signal. Shalom
requested that if the U.S. does not cancel the travel
advisory, it should at least change the level.


8. CODEL Dreier cleared this cable.
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