SHALOM TOURGEMAN ON DISENGAGEMENT, ABBAS'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002015

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: SHALOM TOURGEMAN ON DISENGAGEMENT, ABBAS'S
CAPABILITIES

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Shalom Tourgeman, foreign policy advisor to
the Prime Minister, spoke with CoDel Dreier March 29 about
Israel's preparations for disengagement. He noted that while
the GOI expects two thirds of the Gaza settlers to depart
prior to withdrawal, the ranks of the resisters may swell to
between 7,000 and 10,000 as anti-disengagement activists
travel to Gush Katif for "day of" protests. On coordinating
disengagement with the Palestinians, Tourgeman explained that
disengagement had always been a "unilateral decision, not a
unilateral step." The GOI is eager to discuss the civil and
security aspects of withdrawal, he said, but the PA appears
to be resistant to this. Tourgeman said that Arafat's death
and the election of PA President Mahmoud Abbas presented new
opportunities for forward movement on the peace process.
Abbas's promises to Hamas and PIJ not to disarm them and to
bring them into the political system, however, are in direct
conflict with his roadmap responsibilities to dismantle
terrorist infrastructure. End summary.

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GOI Ready For a Fight During Withdrawal
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2. (C) Shalom Tourgeman, foreign policy political advisor to
Prime Minister Sharon, told CoDel Dreier March 29 that while
many on the Right object to the disengagement, all of the
parliamentary obstacles to the plan have now been removed and
the GOI is preparing in earnest for evacuation. By the end
of July, he said, some two thirds of Gush Katif's settlers
will have departed the Gaza Strip. The third that remains,
however, could be joined by thousands of West Bank settlers
and anti-disengagement activists, raising the potential
number of Gush Katif resistors on the "day of" evacuation to
between 7,000 and 10,000. Tourgeman said the IDF will call
in many of its reserves, and will serve the dual purpose of
providing security to Israeli National Police (INP) forces
who will carry out the actual evacuation, and preventing
possible terrorist attacks during withdrawal. Israel remains
determined, he explained, "not to appear as if we are
evacuating under fire."

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GOI Wants to Coordinate With the PA
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3. (C) Tourgeman said that Israel has always seen its
disengagement plan as "a unilateral decision, not a
unilateral step." The GOI is eager to coordinate the
economic, civil, and security aspects of disengagement with
the Palestinians. Israel is especially determined that
terrorist and extremist groups like Hamas or PIJ not take
over settlement assets post-withdrawal. In Tourgeman's view,
however, the PA "does not seem enthusiastic" about
negotiating with Israel, something that he said will prove
detrimental to the post-disengagement Gazan economy.

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GOI Trusts Abbas' Intentions, Not His Abilities
-------------- --


4. (C) The death of Yassir Arafat and the election of
Mahmoud Abbas as PA President represent an opportunity to
move forward, Tourgeman said. Sharon trusts Abbas's own
views and intentions, and the two leaders enjoy a strong
personal relationship. Additionally, the PA has made some
efforts on terrorism, such as dispatching PA security forces
to the Gaza Strip in response to the firing of Qassam rockets
into Sderot. Abbas does not have the capability to dismantle
terrorist infrastructure, however, and without this there can
be no significant progress. In his view, Abbas's Cairo
assurances to Hamas and PIJ -- a promise not to disarm them,
and to bring them into the political arena as legitimate
parties -- are in direct conflict with PA responsibilities
under the roadmap.


5. (C) While Abbas has assured Israel that, given time, he
will find a means of dismantling terrorist infrastructure and
that "in the end, there will be no Hamas or PIJ," Tourgeman
said Israel does not believe this is possible. Unless Abbas
acts now to seize weapons and make arrests, he explained,
terrorist groups will continue to recruit and to smuggle
weapons. He noted that militants have managed to smuggle
five anti-aircraft missiles from Egypt into the Gaza Strip,
and although Israel has provided the name of the suspected
smuggler to the PA, the PA security services have taken "no
action" to find and arrest him. Tourgeman said the GOI fears
a "blow up" of terrorism months or years down the road.

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